All of rayom's Comments + Replies

rayom40

Jason,

I appreciate the work that you are doing – you are asking the question of why did the idea of progress fell out of favor and I would like to add my two cents, looking at it just through one particular lens: human nature. 

Let’s start with the progress itself – progress towards what telos? I assume most people mean utopia and folks over here at LW tend to envision in a similar way to Bostrom’s Letter from Utopia.

If that’s the case, maybe it did fell out of favour because technology hasn’t delivered on its utopian promise in a reasonable timeframe ... (read more)

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Answer by rayom70

Anything related to biotech is not included here - care to explain the reason why?

4Daniel Kokotajlo
I haven't thought much about biotech and don't know much about it. This is why I made this a question rather than a post, I'm super interested to hear more things to add to the list!
rayom30

There is nothing magical about it, so yes - AI will help, but humans are enough. I would expect a sustained, 100s of millions/$1bn 10 year effort would bring us a lot closer to this hardware technological 'maturity' (we are not even trying hard now - a mole of carbon-12 has a mass of 12g and it contains 6*10^23 atoms, yet there is nothing stopping us from building small machines with mere thousands/millions of atoms). Obviously you could say that this sort of money would help with anything, but I believe it would be one of the best value/$ projects).


With r... (read more)

Answer by rayom50

Digital matter, in other words, molecular manufacturing. 

With a Star Trekian autogenous home synthesizer, one could expect Moore's Law-like growth.

3Daniel Kokotajlo
I agree this would do it. However it seems unlikely to come prior to AGI, and also if it does come before AGI I think someone would use it to create AGI before the first 9%+ GWP growth year. (How? By building loads of awesome cheap computers, and then brute-forcing AGI with the extra orders of magnitude of compute. If a sugar cube can do 10^21 flops, then a datacenter can do 10^26 I guess (unsure), and that means 10^32 operations in ten days or so.)
3Veedrac
Do you expect pre-takeoff AI to provide this? What sort of AI and production capabilities are you envisioning? Or are you answering this question without reference to AI? If so, what would make this useful for estimating AI timelines?