All of riceissa's Comments + Replies

START TRACKING YOUR SYMPTOMS
Have a signal chat to yourself or similar. Make sure its very low friction and you've impressed on yourself the importance of tracking symptoms

What do you do with this data? Do you have any examples of insights you've gained by tracking symptoms this way? I've personally found that tracking symptoms (which I did for about 3 years, increasingly obsessively towards the end, to the point of writing this post) led to obsessing over my symptoms and that this was probably making things worse. I wasn't even gaining much insight through... (read more)

1agencypilled
Claude made me a react applet for staring at trends- there are obvious worsenings at certain points in my hormonal cycle, and it’s nice to be able to check if my perceived frequency of a given symptom is off (often the case), and which symptoms tend to cluster (useful for interrogating whether I have more than 1 maligned process)

(b12, iodine, niacin)

What does it feel like when you've reached capacity on these? For niacin, do you just mean flushing?

3agencypilled
Urine turns neon when you’ve saturated b12, oral iodine starts tasting bitter (anecdotal, don’t necessarily take this as advice), and yeah flush 

Do not buy supps on Amazon (fraud, reselling, adulteration)

Do you have more info about this? I've had good experiences buying supplements on Amazon (sticking to reputable brands and making sure Amazon is the seller). I've been doing this for years and as far as I know I've only ever gotten maybe on fake product.

1agencypilled
Probably fine if “made by Amazon”, assuming they can be trusted keep those separate. I had one bad experience and wrote them off entirely because the cost of doing a run with a bad supp and it not working for supplier instead of actual reasons is too high for me

I have, but my writings are pretty disorganized at the moment and probably hard for people to interpret without some sort of dialogue with me, which is probably why I invited Nicholas/Heather to message me (I no longer remember my exact thought process from a year ago when I wrote the grandparent comment). But regardless, here are some links that you can check out of learning-related content I have written (feel free to message me or reply to this comment if you want to talk more about this stuff):

... (read more)

Were you gardening or anything when you first got sick?

I was not. I've stayed indoors most of my adult life, so I think I'm at lower risk for worms. Hard to say where I could have gotten worms from (assuming it is worms).

1lemonhope
Yeah hurts the chances then. Could get something from an unwashed piece of fruit. I think the ones that do spread person-to-person do so via eggs that make your butt itch; the eggs get on the bedsheets then Bob eats an apple in the morning. I'm still like 50/50 on the parasite hypothesis

I'd be curious to hear about how you decided which on dewormers I should take. Maybe the answer is just "a bunch of reading on random internet posts and papers".

3lemonhope
Looked for sold online and broad-spectrum. Basically just google.com/search?q=broad+spectrum+dewormer+human . I ate the chocolate one myself. Idk why different parasites would be sensitive to different chemicals or anything. Didn't check user reports at all.

I wasted the first couple years of my illness thinking my condition was psychosomatic or DP/DR, doing things like therapy, anxiety techniques, introspection/journaling, gradual exposure, and so forth. I still sometimes try some psychosomatic treatments anyway (most recently, I was trying out John Sarno/Howard Schubiner-style mind body syndrome stuff, after reading Steve Byrnes's post and having it recommended to me). None of it really helped. I now think a lot of what people think of as psychosomatic conditions are instead somatopsychic conditions (i.e. a ... (read more)

Thank you, this is good to know. I reached out to one of my doctors to see what they think of this idea. My own feeling is that 40% on a worm is too high. My eosinophils count is normal (and I know sometimes that can be normal even with a parasite), the viral illness seems like a sufficient explanation of kick-starting my chronic symptoms, I tested negative on the stool test, and I already know I have gut problems (and those gut problems seem to be explained by SIBO/leaky gut). Basically, everything I see seems to be explained well by stuff that I already ... (read more)

1lemonhope
Oh that's a lot of evidence against a worm probably. I am out of ideas. Good luck. I hope you can figure it out
riceissa31

I agree they are hard to fix, but a lot of nerdy interests tend to also be hard (and that seems to be part of the attraction). So this doesn't seem like a differentiating factor.

6Dentin
They are hard to fix, but you quickly realize that they're all one-off problems and whatever solution you come up with for one person isn't going to work for anyone else. If you can even find a solution. The problems are too hard, the feedback is too weak, and the solutions never generalize. All of those are the opposite of what I'd prefer out of my problems.
riceissa30

Perhaps an intestinal parasite like a tapeworm?

I did get the GI Effects stool test done (in December 2022, well after I'd already been ill), which showed no presence of parasites. Any reason to think a stool test like this wouldn't detect the parasites?

How do you know your infection from years ago was viral?

My symptoms during the acute infection were a sore throat, fever, large quantities of mucus and clogged nose (requiring constantly blowing my nose), and a cough (both dry and wet cough; mostly in the evenings). It felt like a cold or flu, just stronger ... (read more)

3lemonhope
False negative rate is high apparently. Seems like 5-10% false negative for when they already know exactly what you have? And a 30% number is randomly quoted online... I guess it totally depends on what someone has, how much they poop, etc https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC266208/?page=2 Some reports of people just taking dewormers despite negative tests and having good results. Example: https://old.reddit.com/r/SIBO/comments/euuvqw/psa_your_sibo_could_be_parasites_even_if_you/ Idk how broad-spectrum/effective dewormers typically are. Apparently this one killed a bunch of random stuff but some species can come back after: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7983463/ Yeah i would bet 40% on a worm (ie 67% of my 60% on GI pathogen) Only explanation for this (and the salt sensitivity etc) IMO is a hole/thinning in gut lining. Which is moderately likely (30%?) with nonworm gut pathogen but very likely (75%?) with a worm.
riceissa30

I've always been underweight. The heaviest I got was about 115 pounds during freshman year of college. A bunch of the men in my family were quite skinny (though not as much as me) when they were younger, so I suspect it's at least partly genetic.

riceissa30

I guess one of the first things to do to create/market/... an interest from labs/researchers/nerds/... would be to find other people suffering from the same illness and create/coin a name for that illness and create some association/website/gatherings/... to communicate about it like it is done for most other illnesses?

Funny that you mention this, because I was just musing about this the other day over on my personal website. Unfortunately I wasn't able to come up with a very good name...

It must be really dreadful as it seems to be the case for you, to hav

... (read more)
riceissa20

I've heard of this, and may want to try it eventually. I'm starting out with things like LDN first though.

riceissa20

I've heard a lot of good things about fasting, but unfortunately I am pretty underweight (104 pounds, 5 feet 6.5 inches) and unable to gain any weight (despite trying quite hard). And when I am awake if I don't eat for 1-2 hours I start to feel extremely weak. So those two things have kept me from thinking seriously about trying fasting. Do you have any resources or thoughts on fasting for underweight/wasting people?

1lemonhope
Jesus have you always been underweight? If it's new then I would bet you have like a tapeworm. If you've always been underweight then I would bet fasting is not worth the risk.
riceissa20

I have not. I've been supplementing vitamin D my whole adult life, and the initial blood test showed a level of 86.6ng/mL which one of my doctors said was higher than optimal, so I lowered the frequency of supplementation and my follow-up blood test showed a level of 54.5ng/mL. Any reason I should try megadosing it even if I have adequate levels in my blood?

I've heard of zinc carnosine but haven't tried it yet. I tried supplementing with zinc gluconate at one point but it seemed to be aggravating my hunger attack symptom so I stopped.

3lemonhope
Well if you've always been supplementing it then try not supplementing it! But I had some weird food issues for years (eg seizures after eating garlic) that are mostly gone with 250mcg daily vit D. I started taking K with it about a year ago because people say D alone can have long term side effects. I don't know why a giant dose is different from a regular dose... I also had normal levels IIRC. Maybe a giant dose gets stuff deeper into certain tissues or something ¿ Zinc carnosine is supposed to increase mucus production. My understanding is that mucus is the source of all good things health-wise (unless it's in your lungs lol). My mom and I both took it for food vs brain stuff and it seemed to help us both a bit (we were in decent starting condition so a big effect would be hard to see).
riceissa20

Can you elaborate? It seems to me that a lot of nerdy interests also "don't generalize" in the sense that different problems are quite different from one another (a puzzle game would be boring if all the puzzles had similar solutions, and part of the game designer's job is to make puzzles feel impossible in different ways; a mathematical theorem that was unnecessarily particular would be eaten up by a more general theorem, so major theorems in math necessarily require unique insights, so you can't prove most theorems by using the same old tricks; etc.). So this does not seem to be a distinguishing property to me.

2romeostevensit
Puzzle games and real math are pretty non central examples of nerdy interests in my ontology. I think of nerdy interests as fake compression, they provide a simpler world with a working memory number of variables to optimize instead of the mess of the real world. Results can be knowably optimal etc.
riceissa42

Here's one example. Jeff Wood had been suffering from ME/CFS for a while, and found that his head started sinking one day, and a lot of his symptoms would get worse depending on the position of his head/neck. This led to his diagnosis of CCI/AAI and he was able to get the right surgeries and is now in remission. Of course, most of us are not as lucky as he is in having something that so dramatically and immediately changes symptoms. But I think it's one way to solve such medical mysteries, and is basically what you say about tracking backwards from symptom... (read more)

riceissa40

Sure, all of those things. I think they are all related parts of what I've been wondering about, and are not as distinct as maybe you think. If I were to try to compress my main confusion, it's something like: I see nerdy people spontaneously doing certain activities for fun, like doing math, programming, making and solving puzzle games, writing long blog posts about COVID origins, or whatever; why is it that almost no one spontaneously decides to try to solve mysterious chronic illnesses? Does thinking about mysterious chronic illnesses have some kind of barrier that repels people, and if so, are there ways to remove that barrier?

3Julian_R
I wonder if, just like young people not thinking clearly about mortality, it's just something healthy people don't tend to think about, partly because it's depressing. (I'm also someone who got a lot more interested in this kind of thing after my own health issues)
riceissa20

I wonder if "brains" of the sort that are useful for math and programming are neccessarily all that helpful here.

I think I used to implicitly believe this too. I gravitate much more to math/programming than biology, and had a really hard time getting myself interested in biology/health stuff. But having been forced to learn more biology/health stuff, I seem to be able to ask questions that I don't see other people asking, and thinking thoughts that not many others are thinking, so now I think the kinds of thinking used in math/programming generalize and wo... (read more)

riceissa122

I've been trying. You can see my write-ups about breathing, swallowing, weird thirst/electrolyte(?) thing, and paradoxical temporary improvements following certain events. I also have a draft of a post detailing all of my history, labs, symptoms, and everything I've ever tried, but it's a huge amount work and I don't have much hope of people even reading it (hence this question, to see what I can do to make it more interesting), so I've only been able to make progress on it very slowly.

riceissa42

Update: The flashcards have finally been released: https://riceissa.github.io/immune-book/ 

riceissa125

Other commenters have already hinted at this, but I suspect that terms like "saturated fat", "seed oils", and "omega-6 PUFA" are not specific enough, and I further suspect that this makes basically all studies mostly useless (because they work with these flawed coarse terms). "Saturated fat" can be tallow from factory-farmed cows or cultured butter from grass-fed grass-finished cows (and even that isn't specific enough; was the grass sprayed with XYZ pesticide? etc.). "Omega-6 PUFA" can be highly heated seed oils chemically treated to deodorize them (maski... (read more)

Hi, I wanted to give an update. Capnometry biofeedback worked better than I expected. My baseline ET CO2 went from around 27mmHg to around 40mmHg in the first 1.5 weeks of using the device, and stayed there for the whole month I had access to the device. (I've now returned the device.) The key thing I discovered was that even though I was already nasal breathing 99.9% of the time, my nasal breaths were still quite audible and so I was overbreathing because of that. The biofeedback+coaching allowed me to switch my breathing to a silent nasal one in stages. ... (read more)

Interesting, I don't know anything about the quality of different SLIT manufacturers, but $2600 sounds a lot more affordable than $7000. I'll try to remember to ask my allergist about this if I ever see them again.

My understanding (based on watching some YouTube lectures and talking to my allergists) is that SCIT (aka allergy shots) and SLIT are equally effective but (at least in the US) SLIT is not covered by insurance so SCIT ends up being a lot cheaper for most people. The main problem with SCIT is that it requires going to the allergy clinic every week for a while, then every month for a while over a period of about 3 years (but it is possible to speed things up quite a bit by doing cluster shots or double shots). I tried doing SCIT last year but my chronic illn... (read more)

3Chipmonk
oh this would make a lot more sense if true. I don't know, but the online shops that sell it are still $100/mo today. $25/wk * 2 years yes, there were several allergens in there, just the ones i was allergic to

I had a couple more questions about the CONTEC device:

  1. What's the lag time from when you breathe to when the waveform is displayed on the screen, and when the number updates?
  2. How does it prevent water (from exhaled air) from getting into the device? The CapnoTrainer uses water traps inserted between the cannula and the device itself, and these water traps need to be replaced every once in a while. But I haven't seen anything similar for the CONTEC device.
4radfaraf
It can seem real time, but if I do an experiment such as breath hold or other big breathing change and wait till I see it, it's about 5 seconds from memory.   For the water I use these types of tubes: https://contechealth.com/collections/hot-sales/products/tube-adapter-for-co2-module-etco2-capnograph-respiratory-cable-for-cms8000-vet-veterinary?_pos=3&_sid=3eab643da&_ss=r They remove the water, using that gold color threaded thingy in the tube it attracts the water vapor and releases it out of the tube, but not perfectly, when I stop if there is still water in the tube -- which is very often especially if used in the Winter with low humidity, I leave the machine running without me being plugged into it from 5-30 minutes depending on how much water was in the tube to help clear it because without the airflow it won't clear out. I also figured out you can reuse the water filters by just ripping the ends off the tube they are just forced onto a tight connection. Then you can have cheaper cannulas without it and cut a spot on those and force it back on. It works better than expected because water filters are not permanently attached its just by tightness of the connection. Then if you throw out a cannula for sanitary reasons you can just take out the water filter and use it with another new one, I also experimented with attaching two of them on one cannula to make the filter even more powerful and it seems to work without messing up the readings as far as I can tell. Not sure if it actually works better, but I use it that way now. If you end up buying it and the cannulas to get the best price look on that site, ebay, and aliexpress and buy whatever has the best price. I can also probably sell you some tubes with and without filters if you want them for really low cost way below what they sell them at because I bought way too many, though they are probably close to expired based upon the date they put on them -- can tell you the exact date if you want to know. I on

I haven't verified the correctness of what this person is saying, but this Reddit comment seems relevant:

Most yoga breathing techniques have been completely misinterpreted from the ancient texts, and incorrectly teach people to breath larger amounts of air, when true deep breathing (deep as in from the diaphragm) is very still and almost imperceptible at rest. Buteyko teaches how to reset the part of the brain that controls autonomic breathing back to this very gentle still breath. Lau Tzu said 'the perfect man breathes as if he is not breathing' . The thi

... (read more)

Thank you, this is helpful!

I found someone in my local area who has a CapnoTrainer and was willing to rent it out to me and coach me, so it was a lot cheaper than the official route. But yeah, in general rentals are quite expensive unfortunately. If I couldn't find anyone who would rent one out to me for a reasonable price, I would probably have just gone with the CONTEC device as you did.

When I originally wrote this LW post, I had never used a capnometer of any kind (it just seemed quite promising and I was confused why basically no one was talking about ... (read more)

3radfaraf
Also going to add the ones I bought on amazon that didn't work were much thicker than the contec ones, the connector did work though, but I think the thickness of the space in the tubing may need to be the same perhaps to work, and the contec ones are very narrow. Thicker ones are probably for oxygen delivery and other uses and not co2 reading.

The contec does show the waveform, it's just on a tiny screen so not the most detailed. 

Huh, okay, that is good to know. I was looking at images like this one where the wave form is clearly the SpO2, rather than CO2:

But scrolling through more of the images, I do see this, which looks like a CO2 curve:

I am guessing there must be some way to switch which graph you see?

Talking is really bad too for me. If I talk for a sentence or less, let myself breathe a few breaths while not moving, then resume talking and keep pausing for a while after talking only a

... (read more)
4radfaraf
From my unit I can only get the graph to do co2 and nothing else, maybe some marketing person made graphics that aren't accurate, because I do recall seeing that image too, but didn't know what it was of and assumed it was co2. But the actual unit has no way of making a graph of the spo2 as far as I can tell, certainly not mentioned in the manual that you can. It just does the spo2 % number like shown on the screen. I'm familiar with the CapnoTrainer there are lots of good videos out there describing what they do in detail many created by the founder I think. They are what convinced me that I probably have a problem that is unique enough that it's probably not wise to pay for their expensive service. Could have sworn it was around $2k for rental for like a month and a person helping you for a few hours because the rate for the person is around $250 an hour and contributes more to the cost than the rental. I can change the way I breath in various ways, but it makes things worse because my nervous system seems to force itself back into the old pattern and that process is always brutal on my body as it gets much worse as it finds it way back to the old way.  I had a couple instances that suggest what is stuck in my body is very much like trauma energy. I found by accident various ways to manipulate my breath that the later had the effect when I laid down it would feel like the energy from the tension in my abdomen was slowly moving to my arms, legs, and jaw/face over several minutes to 30+ minutes. I'd end up buzzzing with intense energy and feel locked down in those areas at the same time. It would feel like what I've experienced if in a life threatening situation and the body mounted intense energy to defend itself and then at the same time froze because it realized it was too dangerous to fight. If the energy can pass through my body then the symptoms will probably stop. Haven't been able to figure out how to get it to happen, if I move especially early on when th

I self-studied a bunch of math in 2017-2019 in order to do AI alignment research (specifically, agent foundations type stuff), and have a lot of thoughts about how to do it. Feel free to message me if you want to discuss.

1Elias711116
Hi Issa, have you written anything on this elsewhere? I'm interested in reading learning related content.

Thank you, this is really fascinating! After writing this post, I talked to someone who does biofeedback using a capnometer, and they also mentioned that same CONTEC device as a cheap but still accurate capnometer. Their main gripe with it was that it responds more slowly compared to the CapnoTrainer and doesn't show the wave form, so it is not as good for doing biofeedback with (e.g. apparently the CapnoTrainer can show things like aborted breaths or weird exhalation patterns, whereas the CONTEC device can't show that), but it is still good enough for det... (read more)

4radfaraf
The contec does show the waveform, it's just on a tiny screen so not the most detailed.  Talking is really bad too for me. If I talk for a sentence or less, let myself breathe a few breaths while not moving, then resume talking and keep pausing for a while after talking only a bit that helps a lot. For moving I adopted a similar tactic in that if I only move for a few seconds and then stop moving to breathing 1-2 breathes with no movement it stops the crazy breathing acceleration and tensing from happening. Doesn't solve it, but makes the bad effects much less. I also had a lot of trouble eating, and was able to resolve that by very carefully watching my breathing patterns while eating, and figuring out how to modify them to be what would make sense to me as normal. I don't recall the details clearly, but I think I was not stopping during the eating process to breathe through my nose and maybe holding my breath for a long time and then going into faster breathing to compensate afterwards. I too heard about the CaponoTrainer, and looked into someone renting me it and doing training with it, but I reasoned that whatever I had was highly atypical and there was a good chance there short very expensive training and rental would just leave me with a lot less money, and that was part of how I ended up buying that machine. 

Does this mean that a cheap "pseudo-capnometer" can be created which measures VOCs collected via a nasal cannula? Or would measuring VOCs instead of CO2 change the results at that level (but why?)?

2RHollerith
>Does this mean that a cheap "pseudo-capnometer" can be created which . . . ? I doubt it, but don't know for sure because I don't know anything about the mechanisms by which people outgas the VOCs.

Thank you!

Does "COTS" stand for "commercial off-the-shelf" or is this some more technical acronym related to CO2 measurements?

Ultimately the reason it's not popular is probably because it doesn't seem that useful. Breathing is automatic and regulated by blood CO2 concentration; I find it hard to believe that the majority of the population, with otherwise normal respiratory function, would be so off the mark. Is there strong evidence to suggest this is the case?

I agree that this wouldn't be useful for the majority of the population. (Some breathing gurus cl... (read more)

I was not familiar with that term, but I am aware of sleep apnea and how that can lead to too-high levels of carbon dioxide. Like I said in a different comment, my current understanding is that both too-high and too-low are problems. In my case (and in other cases where people have anxiety-like shortness of breath) I think what's going on is too-low carbon dioxide. But having a capnometer seems useful for correcting both too-low and too-high carbon dioxide.

My understanding is that like many things, both low and high are bad (high carbon dioxide is called hypercapnia), so you want to be in the "good" range (I typically see 35-45 mmHg of partial pressure carbon dioxide being cited as the good range). In rationalist circles I have seen discussion of too-high atmospheric carbon dioxide being bad, but I am myself confused on how that connects to carbon dioxide levels in the blood (and separately, I'm not convinced that higher carbon dioxide levels in the air are bad either).

2RHollerith
That's about 5% (since atmospheric pressure is about 760 mmHg) or 50,000 ppm. Being in a room with that high a concentration of co2 is immediately dangerous to life and health, which is a good illustration of the fact that this post (your post) is about co2 in exhaled air, which is distinct from co2 in inhaled air or ambient air, where for example 5,000 ppm of co2 "is the permissible exposure limit for daily workplace exposures" (source).

Was the update ever posted? I am interested in getting a capnometer for an unrelated reason and was curious where people decided to get theirs.

4Thomas Kwa
no, we got BiPAP and even some HFNC equipment, but didn't use / returned it within a couple of months when it became apparent that there wouldn't be severe hospital overcrowding

I feel like doing correctness right requires originality after a certain point, so the two don't feel too distinct to me. Early in one's intellectual development it might make sense to just "shop around" for different worldviews by reading widely, but after a while you are going to be routinely bumping into things that aren't on the collective map.

The casus belli example Habryka gives in the "Correctness as defence against the dark arts" strikes me as an example of ... how originality helps defend against the dark arts! (I am guessing here that Habryka did... (read more)

I don't actually know how to design things, but here's a simple prototype you can play around with: https://issarice.com/adaptive-typography (as is the case with all prototypes, I ask the user to please overlook any jankiness of the current implementation, and instead imagine you are interacting with a much more polished/idealized version of the same idea).

Two years later: an abstract algebra server was created (covering three books: Artin, Aluffi, and "Abel's Theorem in Problems and Solutions"), but never really took off. I also discovered a topology server (covering Munkres) but it is also now inactive. Meanwhile the Tao Discord is still alive, but I fear it is mostly only alive because I am still there answering people's questions...

There's a tricky trade-off where on one hand, I want to answer questions quickly enough that people don't feel blocked on not knowing the answer to their question, but on the ... (read more)

What would you recommend in cases where there isn't a single moment in time when one has given up? Most of my projects are inactive in the sense that I haven't done much with them in a while (months or years), but also, they aren't completely dead. I gradually lost interest in the project or prioritized doing other things, but there isn't a sharp cutoff when that happened, and I might pick it up again. To give a concrete example, one of my blogs has a posting history that looks like this (numbers in parentheses indicate number of blog posts in that month):... (read more)

4Screwtape
I think that's probably the most common version of quietly fading. You do a bunch of work on something for a while, then a little less, then less, then it trickles out. Most of the time I think that pattern is fine, because most of the time nobody is relying on you. I don't have the numbers as handy, but my efforts to learn particular musical instruments or languages fit the same pattern your blog has without the 2023 revival. (Congratulations on that by the way!) Countless D&D campaigns I've been in would meet once a week for months, then twice a month, then once a month, then we start skipping months. It's fine. The right answer depends on the project, and I'm hampered in the post by trying to generalize too broadly. A work project in a busy office with tight deadlines? It might be worth telling your coworkers after two or three days of not touching a project. The failure condition is if they would assign someone else to work on the project if they knew you weren't actively pushing forward on it. A personal blog written for your own writing practice? I don't think you ever need to announce you're giving up. It's not that nobody cares about the personal blog, but most likely nobody is waiting around going "it's important to me that the blog updates and I would do it myself if somebody had to, but I'm sure it's all well in hand."  In the post itself, I suggest checking if "I haven’t touched it in a month and ideally would have." Some projects have months where there's no reason to work on it, for instance a backyard garden probably doesn't need much work in January. If you have a list of all the projects you've taken up, and you look at them on the first day of a new month and one of them hasn't been touched at all, that's the best trigger I've come up with. The central example of a project this post was written for is something like a once-a-year event lots of people like and would organize if they knew nobody else was doing it, but where the default assumption

I really like the idea of this page and gave this post a strong-upvote. Felt like this was worth mentioning, since in recent years I've felt increasingly alienated by LessWrong culture. My only major request here is that, if there are future iterations of this page, I'd like poll options to be solicited/submitted before any voting happens (this is so that early submissions don't get an unfair advantage just by having more eyeballs on them). A second more minor request is to hide the votes while I'm still voting (I'm trying very hard not to be influenced by vote counts and the names of specific people agreeing/disagreeing with things, but it's difficult).

I have about 500 Anki cards on basic immunology that I and a collaborator created while reading Philipp Dettmer's book Immune (Philipp Dettmer is the founder of the popular YouTube channel Kurzgesagt, which has been featured on LW before, and the book itself has also been reviewed on LW before). (ETA: When I first wrote this comment, I stupidly forgot to mention that my intention is to publish these cards on the internet for people to freely use, once they are polished.) However, neither of us is that knowledgeable about immunology (yet) so I'm worried abo... (read more)

4riceissa
Update: The flashcards have finally been released: https://riceissa.github.io/immune-book/ 

I think another disadvantage that the post doesn't mention is that being an Organization confers a sense of legitimacy, in part because it acts as a costly signal that one can manage all the legal complexities, pay for paperwork, etc.; so being a sponsored project is a way to call yourself an Organization without paying the cost of the signal. In the limit of widespread knowledge about the legal subtleties of fiscal sponsorship, and due diligence on the part of the community to always keep the distinction in mind, this is not a problem. But people are lazy, and so this sort of confusion does I think benefit sponsored projects.

I've written up a few things on Reddit recently:

Based on this Wayback snapshot it seems to be a paper called "A Contamination Theory of the Obesity Epidemic" by Ethan Ludwin-Peery and Sarah Ludwin-Peery. I was able to download the PDF of the paper at this link (the main body of the PDF is 63 pages as claimed in this LW post, and the PDF is dated July 3, 2021, which is just before this LW post was published, so it is likely the version of the paper being discussed here).

Answer by riceissa5-1

The main blocker for me is social rather than technical. Back when the new wiki first started, I created a page but the LW devs (or at least one of them) didn't like the page. There was some back and forth, but I came away from the discussion feeling pretty unwelcome and worried that if I were to make more contributions they would also involve lengthy debates or my work would be removed. I haven't really kept up on the wiki since that time, but I haven't seen anything that has changed my mind about this.

A few technical things that would make it nicer to ed... (read more)

1Nathan Young
In a smaller way this is my experience also, and more so on the EA forum wiki.

I have not gotten prayer to really work for me yet, but I've experimented with it a bit (I feel somewhat embarrassed to admit this, but yeah I've gotten desperate enough and have thought I was possibly going to die on multiple occasions now and have entered mental states where I think praying might be the only thing I can do).

"Prayer" in the sense of "ask for a thing in your head and then the thing happens in real life" is obviously not going to work. But I think this may be the wrong way to think about prayers/praying (disclaimer: I am not religious at al... (read more)

2dr_s
I think you can formalize that kind of thing as some form of meditation or mindfulness or whatever, without involving a religious aspect that implies external entities that obviously (well... most likely. I have to leave that technically > 0% chance open) have nothing to do with it. As for homeopathy, I feel as confident as can be that absolutely nothing is going on there other than a lot of people either deluding themselves into peddling magic potions, or straight up being con-men. The supposed "theory" behind homeopathy is one of the things that make the least sense in the long history of things that don't make sense.

People often claim that consumer products have been declining in quality over the decades. Some people even claim that such a decline is inevitable under market forces. I've seen this discussed a lot especially for laptops, where supposedly desirable qualities like durability and repairability have declined. I'll focus on these two qualities in particular below.[1]

In contrast to the observation above, I learned the following argument from one of David Friedman's books: if people are willing to buy a crappy product for $x, then they should be willing to pay... (read more)

1Walker Vargas
Another consideration is how much money someone has to hand. If someone only make $1,000 a month, they may choice $25 shoes that will last a year over $100 shoes that will last 5 years. Essentially, it is the complimentary idea of economy of scale.
4Jiro
Information asymmetry is a really big thing here.  It's not possible for companies to hide the price (although goodness knows, they try as hard as they can).  It's trivial for companies to hide the product quality.
7nim
The "pay 10x for something that lasts 10x as long" reasoning only works when the item is expected to have the same value year over year. Some things are made of parts that last a long time, with technologies that aren't changing rapidly, and stay roughly as effective 10 or even 50 years after they're made. Consider a teapot, a dining room table, a simple electric heater, bicycles, many firearms. Antique store stuff. Higher-tech instances include good keyboards, good optical mice, probably good speakers, arguably good audio amps. Also some kitchen gadgets -- most dishes and silverware, apple peelers, grain mills, grinders, simple food dehydrators, popcorn poppers, good knives. Other things are made of parts that degrade over time, and/or with technologies that are still changing rapidly because we're not there yet on their evolution toward a generally accepted standard of good-enough. Consider wall-to-wall carpeting, almost all upholstered furniture, bicycle and car tyres, car seats, smoke detectors, underwear, TVs, gaming PCs, phones. Vintage fashion looks superficially like an exception to this principle, but I'm pretty sure there's a huge survivorship bias component there. Some old clothes got lucky and happened to be comprised of time-friendly materials, but many weren't -- even as recently as my own childhood, polyesters and nylons and memory foams were by and large utterly horrible textures. Most "vintage" aged items with elastic are worse than useless, as the rubber perishes over time. For phones and computers in particular, the problem with designing for indefinite repairability is twofold: First, building for modularity has its costs and tradeoffs. User-serviceable interfaces are heavier, bulkier, less efficient. Second, you can't build modularity to specs that haven't been written yet. You can't future-proof a motherboard by testing it for compatibility with CPU and RAM form factors that haven't even started development when you're trying to build for t
7VipulNaik
A few thoughts: * In at least one area, namely cars, durability relative to actual usage has improved a lot over the past 50 years or so. See for instance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity "According to the New York Times, in the 1960s and 1970s, the typical car reached its end of life around 100,000 miles (160,000 km), but due to manufacturing improvements in the 2000s, such as tighter tolerances and better anti-corrosion coatings, the typical car lasts closer to 200,000 miles (320,000 km)." * The area where I'm most aware of claims of reduced durability is home appliances e.g. https://ryanfinlay.medium.com/they-used-to-last-50-years-c3383ff28a8e but I think there are a bunch of factors here that make it a little tricky given (a) low cost: there's a much wider selection of home appliances, and the low end that are quite cheap still last several years, which is obviously less than the high end and the older great devices, but probably good enough and a great comparison to costs. Low-end refrigerators for instance cost only a bit more than phones, which is remarkable considering the size differences! (b) energy use as a major component of cost over the long term: for appliances like refrigerators, the electricity use becomes a major cost component if the appliance lasts too long, so that having a long-lasting refrigerator that doesn't benefit from energy efficiency improvements may ultimately cost more. * In the realm of electronics, quality improvements in hardware even over the last 5-10 years have been very impressive; for instance, batteries have gotten better, design/form factors have gotten better. However, repairability in particular has gotten worse but this seems tied to the trend toward miniaturization and portability. If people anyway plan to replace their devices every few years, then portability probably wins over repairability.
3Dagon
It seems a constant (or perhaps accelerating) that people complain about everything going downhill, and being worse than the past.  This feels like just another standard example of OBVIOUS improvements on lots of dimensions (cost, speed, usability, etc.) and picking one dimension to compare so there's something to complain about.
5Thomas Kwa
Perhaps there's enough uncertainty in how durable products are that consumers' purchase decisions don't really depend on perceived durability, and so companies don't focus on it? I like durable products but can't be so confident in a product's durability before trying it unless there's a very strong brand or I know something verifiable about how the product is constructed.

Home water testing: these are periodic tests rather than continuous monitors, and aren't cheap either. My doctor recommended this one but it's more expensive than the water filter I use, so maybe find a cheaper one or skip straight to filtering (the test did verify my filter worked, and this was pretty late in the filter's lifecycle). You can also use EWG to check your city's water data, although it will miss problems in your own pipes.

Did you have a reason to suspect that your tap water in particular was bad (e.g. after seeing EWG's measurements), or was ... (read more)

4Elizabeth
I used that home test and it did indicate problems, although I don't remember what specifically. I dug into water quality just enough to go "lemme get a water filter" and then stopped thinking about it, so I don't have a lot of details. 
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