All of Richard Bartlett's Comments + Replies

I wanted to loop back to this post to say Thank You! for the microcovid project. I wrote up a case study of how we used it.

Thank you Catherio and friends for this incredible work, and the generosity of sharing it. It is super helpful

I have a question: I'm wondering how to reason about the nonlinearity of risk vs group size?

The model assumes risk and group size have a linear relationship, i.e. it is 10x more risky to do an activity with 10x more people.

I don't know how well this approximation holds. Yes, if there are 10x more average people at a party, then there are 10x more infected people. But I may not have meaningfully interactions (e.g. shared airspace) with the... (read more)

3catherio
Sorry to leave you hanging for so long Richard! This is the reason why in the calculator we ask about "number of people typically near you at a given time" for the duration of the event. (You can also think of this as a proxy for "density of people packed into the room".) No reports like that that I'm aware of, alas!