All of RichardWein's Comments + Replies

[Responding to an old comment, I know, but I've only just found this discussion.]

Never mind special access protocols, you could make code unmodifiable (in a direct sense) by putting it in ROM. Of course, it could still be modified indirectly, by the AI persuading a human to change the ROM. Even setting aside that possibility, there's a more fundamental problem. You cannot guarantee that the code will have the expected effect when executed in the unpredictable context of an AGI. You cannot even guarantee that the code in question will be executed. Making th... (read more)

P.S. Bayes Theorem is derived from a basic statement about conditional probability, such as the following:

P(S/T) = P(S&T)/P(T)

According to the SEP (http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/) this is usually taken as a "definition", not an axiom, and Bayesians usually give conditional probability some real-world significance by adding a Principle of Conditionalization. In that case it's the Principle of Conditionalization that requires justification in order to establish that Bayes Theorem is true in the sense that Bayesians require.

0Cyan
Just to follow up on the previous replies to this line of thought, see Wikipedia's article on Cox's theorem and especially reference 6 of that article. On the Principle of Conditionalization, it might be argued that Cox's theorem assumes it as a premise; the easiest way to derive it from more basic considerations is through a diachronic Dutch book argument.

The inferential method that solves the problems with frequentism — and, more importantly, follows deductively from the axioms of probability theory — is Bayesian inference.

You seem to be conflating Bayesian inference with Bayes Theorem. Bayesian inference is a method, not a proposition, so cannot be the conclusion of a deductive argument. Perhaps the conclusion you have in mind is something like "We should use Bayesian inference for..." or "Bayesian inference is the best method for...". But such propositions cannot follow from mathem... (read more)

2wnoise
It's actually somewhat tricky to establish that the rules of probability apply to the Frequentist meaning of probability. You have to mess around with long run frequencies and infinite limits. Even once that's done, it hard to make the case that the Frequentist meaning has anything to do with the real world -- there are no such thing as infinitely repeatable experiments. In contrast, a few simple desiderata for "logical reasoning under uncertainty" establish probability theory as the only consistent way to do so that satisfy those criteria. Sure, other criteria may suggest some other way of doing so, but no one has put forward any such reasonable way.
3Richard_Kennaway
It stands on the foundations of probability theory, and while foundational stuff like Cox's theorem takes some slogging through, once that's in place, it is quite straightforward to justify Bayesian inference.
0RichardWein
P.S. Bayes Theorem is derived from a basic statement about conditional probability, such as the following: P(S/T) = P(S&T)/P(T) According to the SEP (http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/) this is usually taken as a "definition", not an axiom, and Bayesians usually give conditional probability some real-world significance by adding a Principle of Conditionalization. In that case it's the Principle of Conditionalization that requires justification in order to establish that Bayes Theorem is true in the sense that Bayesians require.

[Re-post with correction]

Hi Luke,

I've questioned your metaethical views before (in your "desirist" days) and I think you're making similar mistakes now as then. But rather than rehash old criticisms I'd like to make a different point.

Since you claim to be taking a scientific or naturalized approach to philosophy I would expect you to offer evidence in support of your position. Yet I see nothing here specifically identified as evidence, and very little that could be construed as evidence. I don't see how your approach here is significantly differe... (read more)

2[anonymous]
You can edit (pencil on paper icon) your posts, you don't have to delete and repost.