P.S. Bayes Theorem is derived from a basic statement about conditional probability, such as the following:
P(S/T) = P(S&T)/P(T)
According to the SEP (http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/) this is usually taken as a "definition", not an axiom, and Bayesians usually give conditional probability some real-world significance by adding a Principle of Conditionalization. In that case it's the Principle of Conditionalization that requires justification in order to establish that Bayes Theorem is true in the sense that Bayesians require.
The inferential method that solves the problems with frequentism — and, more importantly, follows deductively from the axioms of probability theory — is Bayesian inference.
You seem to be conflating Bayesian inference with Bayes Theorem. Bayesian inference is a method, not a proposition, so cannot be the conclusion of a deductive argument. Perhaps the conclusion you have in mind is something like "We should use Bayesian inference for..." or "Bayesian inference is the best method for...". But such propositions cannot follow from mathem...
[Re-post with correction]
Hi Luke,
I've questioned your metaethical views before (in your "desirist" days) and I think you're making similar mistakes now as then. But rather than rehash old criticisms I'd like to make a different point.
Since you claim to be taking a scientific or naturalized approach to philosophy I would expect you to offer evidence in support of your position. Yet I see nothing here specifically identified as evidence, and very little that could be construed as evidence. I don't see how your approach here is significantly differe...
[Responding to an old comment, I know, but I've only just found this discussion.]
Never mind special access protocols, you could make code unmodifiable (in a direct sense) by putting it in ROM. Of course, it could still be modified indirectly, by the AI persuading a human to change the ROM. Even setting aside that possibility, there's a more fundamental problem. You cannot guarantee that the code will have the expected effect when executed in the unpredictable context of an AGI. You cannot even guarantee that the code in question will be executed. Making th... (read more)