All of robertzk's Comments + Replies

robertzkΩ110

At this point I would direct the "deferred task" apparatus fully towards interventional interpretability. Put a moratorium on further gradient-based training, which is not well understood and can have many indirect effects unless you have some understanding of modularity and have applied stop gradients almost everywhere that is irrelevant to the generator of the conditional, deceptive reasoning behavior. Instead halt, melt and catch fire at that point.

Halt further model deployments towards the original deferred task. Quarantine the model that first exhibit... (read more)

I am also in NYC and happy to participate. My lichess rating is around 2200 rapid and 2300 blitz.

Thank you, Larks! Salute. FYI that I am at least one who has informally committed (see below) to take up this mantle. When would the next one typically be due?

https://twitter.com/robertzzk/status/1564830647344136192?s=20&t=efkN2WLf5Sbure_zSdyWUw

3Larks
I would typically aim for mid-December, in time for the American charitable giving season.

Inspecting code against a harm detection predicate seems recursive. What if the code or execution necessary to perform that inspection properly itself is harmful? An AGI is almost certainly a distributed system with no meaningful notion of global state, so I doubt this can be handwaved away.

For example, a lot of distributed database vendors, like Snowflake, do not offer a pre-execution query planner. This can only be performed just-in-time as the query runs or retroactively after it has completed, as the exact structure may be dependent on co-location of d

... (read more)
3John_Maxwell
One possibility is a sort of proof by induction, where you start with code which has been inspected by humans, then that code inspects further code, etc. Daemons and mindcrime seem most worrisome for superhuman systems, but a human-level system is plausibly sufficient to comprehend human values (and thus do useful inspections). For daemons, I think you might even be able to formalize the idea without leaning hard on any specific utility function. The best approach might involve utility uncertainty on the part of the AI that becomes narrower with time, so you can gradually bootstrap your way to understanding human values while avoiding computational hazards according to your current guesses about human values on your way there. People already choose not to think about particular topics on the basis of information hazards and internal suffering. Sometimes these judgements are made in an interrupt fashion partway through thinking about a topic; others are outside view judgments ("thinking about topic X always makes me feel depressed").

I am interested as well. Please share the docs in question with my LW username at gmail dot com if that is a possibility. Thank you!

2Wei Dai
You should contact Rob Bensinger since he's the owner of the document in question. (It looks like I technically can share the document with others, but I'm not sure what Rob/MIRI's policy is about who that document should be shared with.)

This was my thought exactly. Construct a robust satellite with the following properties.

Let a "physical computer" be defined as a processor powered by classical mechanics, e.g., through pulleys rather than transistors, so that it is robust to gamma rays, solar flares and EMP attacks, etc.

On the outside of the satellite, construct an onion layer of low-energy light-matter interacting material, such as alternating a coat of crystal silicon / CMOS with thin protective layers of steel, nanocarbon, or other hard material. When the device is construct... (read more)

3avturchin
I have been thinking about satellites and I come to two main objections: 1) Instability. The fact that we do not observe other natural satellites except Moon implies that all other orbits in this system maybe unstable - not sure, but why we can't see even a smallest boulder? 2) Cost. The rate of natural erosion in around 1 mm in 1 mln years, or 1 meter in 1 billion years, not counting for larger collisions. This implies that the size of the satellite should be at least a 4 meters in diameter, and assuming that it is made from lead, it will weight 350 tons. Putting a ton on GEO costs now at least 10 mln USD, so only launch will cost 3.5 billions dollar, and as launch is typically only a fraction of cost of the payload, the whole project will cost more than 10 billion USD. For such price there many more useful things could be done. For example, opportunistic payloads on planned landers at Moon cold craters will cost only a fraction of this cost. I also sceptical for any long-term working machinery before full blown molecular manufacturing, which could be used as eternal nest of ants for the messaging.

To not support EA? I am confused. Doesn’t the drowning child experiment lend credence to supporting EA?

7Said Achmiz
To not support EA, yes. The point of my comment was to agree with Yannick_Muehlhaeuser about the fact that discussing the “drowning child” argument can have different effects on different people. (It’s a classic “one person’s modus ponens is another’s modus tollens”, in fact.) This old comment thread makes for useful reading on this topic.

Isn't this an example of a reflection problem? We induce this change in a system, in this case an evaluation metric, and now we must predict not only the next iteration but the stable equilibria of this system.

Did you remove the vilification of proving arcane theorems in algebraic number theory because the LessWrong audience is more likely to fall within this demographic? (I used to be very excited about proving arcane theorems in algebraic number theory, and fully agree with you.)

2David Althaus
You've got me there :)

Incidentally, for a community whose most important goal is solving a math problem, why is there no MathJax or other built-in Latex support?

The thing that eventually leapt out when comparing the two behaviours is that behaviour 2 is far more informative about what the restriction was, than behaviour 1 was.

It sounds to me like the agent overfit to the restriction R. I wonder if you can draw some parallels to the Vapnik-style classical problem of empirical risk minimization, where you are not merely fitting your behavior to the training set, but instead achieve the optimal trade-off between generalization ability and adherence to R.

In your example, an agent that inferred the boundaries of our... (read more)

1Stuart_Armstrong
Thanks, looking at the Vapnik stuff now.
5robertzk
Incidentally, for a community whose most important goal is solving a math problem, why is there no MathJax or other built-in Latex support?

However, UFFire does not uncontrollably exponentially reproduce or improve its functioning. Certainly a conflagration on a planet covered entirely by dry forest would be an unmitigatable problem rather quickly.

In fact, in such a scenario, we should dedicate a huge amount of resources to prevent it and never use fire until we have proved it will not turn "unfriendly".

-2Locaha
Do you realize this is a totally hypothetical scenario?

I down-voted this comment because it is a clever ploy for karma that rests on exploiting LessWrongers' sometimes unnecessary enthusiasm for increasingly abstract and self-referential forms of reasoning but otherwise adds nothing to the conversation.

Twist: By "this comment" I actually mean my comment, thereby making this a paraprosdokian.

robertzk150

I am an active github R contributor and stackoverflow R contributor and I would be willing to coordinate. Send me an email: rkrzyz at gmail

So you are saying that explaining something is equivalent to constructing a map that bridges an inferential distance, whereas explaining something away is refactoring thought-space to remove an unnecessary gerrymandering?

It feels good knowing you changed your mind in response to my rebuttal.

I disagree with your preconceptions about the "anti" prefix. For example, an anti-hero is certainly a hero. I think it is reasonable to consider "anti" a contextually overloaded semantic negater whose scope does not have to be the naive interpretation: anti-X can refer to "opposite of X" or "opposite or lacking of a trait highly correlated with X" with the exact choice clear from context.

2Gunnar_Zarncke
Hm, yes. "anti" can and is used in that way. I agree. But as always the readings of a word are disambiguated by context. And here I'm not so sure. But OK, I can live with anti-skill.

I got a frequent LessWrong contributor a programming internship this summer.

It is as if you're buying / shorting an index fund on opinions.

0marchdown
It's as if you're participating in a prediction market such as PredictionBook or The Good Judgement Project.

Strong AI could fail if there are limits to computational integrity on sufficiently complex systems, similar to heating and QM problems limiting transistor sizes. For example, perhaps we rarely see these limits in humans because their frequency is one in a thousand human-thought-years, and when they do manifest it is mistaken as a diagnosis of mental illness.

The possibility of an "adaptation" being in fact an exaptatation or even a spandrel is yet another reason to be incredibly careful about purposing teleology into a discussion about evolutionarily-derived mechanisms.

robertzk100

The question of the subject is too dense and should be partitioned. Some ideas for auxiliary questions:

... (read more)
7Gunnar_Zarncke
Our parenting bibliography (sorry for most of it in German; I tried to find corresponding english ones but got few): Each one starts with a line with the following ratings: 1) applicable age (for which age we do consult these books) 2) practical tips (P0: none; P++: many good tips) 3) theoretical/philosphical explanations (P0: none; P++; proper scientific research) 4) my personal recommendation (P0: do not use; P++: highly recommended) "?" means I don't known because only my wife read the book 0-1.5;+;+;+ Oje ich wachse, Hetty van de Rijt et al English: The Wonder Weeks http://www.amazon.de/Spr%C3%BCngen-mentalen-Entwicklung-w%C3%A4hrend-umgehen/dp/3442161444/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1377957033&sr=8-1&keywords=oje+ich+wachse 0-1;++;?;0 Spiele für alle fünf Sinne, Karin Mönkemeyer http://www.amazon.de/Spiele-f%C3%BCr-alle-f%C3%BCnf-Sinne/dp/3499184621/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1377957139&sr=8-1&keywords=spiele+f%C3%BCr+alle+f%C3%BCnf+sinne 0-6;P++;?;R0 Fingerspiele und andere Kinkerlitzchen: Spiel-Lust mit kleinen Kindern von Raimund Pousset http://www.amazon.de/Fingerspiele-andere-Kinkerlitzchen-Spiel-Lust-kleinen/dp/3499606410/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1377957194&sr=8-1&keywords=fingerspiele+und+andere+kinkerlitzchen 0-25;P+;T+;R+ Spielzeugland, Verbrauchenzentrale 1-3;?;?;? Kinderspiele, BZgA 1-10;?;?;? Spiele mit kleinen Kindern und Babys, Münchmeier 1-18;P+;T0;R+ Knaurs Spielebuch, Johanna Preetorius http://www.amazon.de/Johanna-Preetorius-Knaurs-Spielebuch/dp/B00ACO76OM/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1377957455&sr=8-5&keywords=knaurs+spielebuch Note: Our editions is the original edition of 1968 which contains lots of old childrens games. 3-10;P++;T+;R+ Was Jungen brauchen: Das Kleine-Kerle-Coaching, von Alexander Bentheim und Monika Murphy-Witt http://www.amazon.de/Was-Jungen-brauchen-Kleine-Kerle-Coaching-Partnerschaft/dp/3774288828/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1377957647&sr=8-1&keywords=was+jungen+brauchen 3-7;P+;T+;? Spielerische Sprachförderung von Gabriele Fischer, C
2Gunnar_Zarncke
Wow. That is not a comment but a post in it's own right. I'm somewhat blown away of what to make out of it. I will try to address the raised points: 1) Our approach to parenting can be classified as authorative/propagative (according to Baumrind's Three Parenting Styles) but with a non-extreme damand level. It is rather not Concerted Cultivation (which in our opinion puts to much pressure on the child and has it's own inefficiencies (and doesn't really lead to rationality). Instead we rather fall into the Natural Growth pattern. We didn't invent most of the methods we apply. You could say that we did a meta study on parenting and took the best of it. I will provide a parenting bibliography below. The lullaby is my own invention, but singing lullabies is one recommended method, as is reading and discussing bed time stories. Teaching via dialog of wuestion and answer is also a traditional teaching method going back to Socrates I believe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_method 2) Is parenting a no-win activity? I'm not sure what this is diving at. I wonder if this takes the view that parenting and education should be left to specialists and that doing parenting oneself is inefficient any way it is done. Even if that may be true on average there are the following exceptions (some of which apply to our case): * Availability of professional care (we do use a wood kindergarten for outdoor, musical and social education) * Trust into the quality of professional care (compared to the alternatives) * Personal preferrence (our utility functions rank high on affection to our children) * Personal experience (my wife is a teacher) 3) I though much about 1) even before we had children and we compared multiple options regarding 2). Otherwise I'm not sure what to make out of this paragraph. 4) If with 'onslaught' my intense advancement of numeracy is meant, then I have to assume that you imply that I am jumping to conclusions by proposing my specific parenting style as

In other words, productivity need not be confused with busywork, and I suspect this is primarily an artifact of linguistic heuristics (similar brain procedures get lightly activated when you hear "productivity" as when you hear "workout" or "haste" or even "forward march").

If productivity were a currency, you could say "have I acquired more productons this week than last week with respect to my current goal?" If making your family well off can be achieved by lounging around in the pool splashing each other, then that is high family welfare productivity.

I spend time worrying about whether random thermal fluctuation in (for example) suns produces sporadic conscious moments simply due to random causal structure alignments. Since I also believe most potential conscious moments are bizarre and painful, that worries me. This worry is not useful when embedded in systems one, a worry which the latter was not created to cope with, so I only worry in the system two philosophical curiosity sense.

0Rukifellth
I find Boltzmann Brains to be more of an unconvincing thought experiment than an actual possibility. Is this concern altruistic/compassionate?

Seeing as how classical mechanics is an effective theory for physically restructuring significant portions of reality to one's goals, you are promising something tantamount to a full theory of knowledge acquisition, something linguists and psychologists smarter than you have worked on for centuries.

Calm down with promises that will disappoint you and make an MVP.

0Owen_Richardson
Yes. Minimum Viable Products have been done, hence the excitement... just built mainly for markets where the ultimate "consumers" have pretty much no influence over "purchasing policy"... and stuff ... It's not a theory of learning, but a theory of instruction... As to "smarter than me", I didn't develop the theory, and it's largely dumb luck I came across all the puzzle pieces in a way that made it perfectly obvious how much of a Big Deal the implications could be... A year ago, I'd've talked your ear off at this point trying to explain how damn cool this is and how much you should care, but now I'm wondering if I should shut up and keep it to myself for a while longer... I mean, you could extract the information from various crackpot rants that I've left around the web, but... I think I'm safe from you making the effort at this point. xD Okay, so I didn't really think about whether I wanted to get into this at all beforehand, and I need to talk to my partner. I have a bunch of moving-to-another-country practical matters I should be focusing on right now anyway. I'll get back to you guys in a few days.

I do not understand why no one is interested.

0Mqrius
My current effective altruism strategy is: * Make a lot of money * Give it away Pretty straightforward, but it means I don't need to have a job specifically related to effective altruism. The question might be if you're more useful by making money and giving that away, or by working directly with the cause or meta-cause you support. I think for me it's the former.

Do you have an Amazon wish list? You are awesome.

4AngryParsley
I do not. Your praise is more than enough. Also, I have pretty much everything I want that can be ordered off Amazon.

I am interested. What software did you use? I am trying to learn NEURON but it feels like Fortran and I have trouble navigating around the cobwebs.

2fluchess
I used Matlab for most of my programming. From what I have read (and seen), Matlab is the most used software for Computational Neuroscience. Almost all of the researchers who used any programming used Matlab, which a few people using C.
robertzk100

In the mathematical theory of Galois representations, a choice of algebraic closure of the rationals and an embedding of this algebraic closure in the complex numbers (e.g. section 5) is usually necessary to frame the background setting, but I never hear "the algebraic closure" or "the embedding," instead "an algebraic closure" and "an embedding." Thus I never forget that a choice has to be made and that this choice is not necessarily obvious. This is an example from mathematics where careful language is helpful in tracking background assumptions.

1Shmi
I wonder how the mathematicians speaking article-free languages deal with it, given that they lack a non-cumbersome linguistic construct to express this potential ambiguity.
1lukeprog
Thanks for sharing this.

In mathematical terms, the map from problem space to reference classes is a projection and has no canonical choice (you apply the projection by choosing to lose information), whereas the map from causal structures to problem space is an imbedding and has such a choice (and the choice gains information).

Are we worried whether the compartmentalized accounting of mission and fundraising related financial activity via outsourcing to a different organization can incur PR costs as well? If an organization is worried about "look[ing] bad" because some of their funds are being employed for fundraising, thus lowering their effective percentage, would they be susceptible to minor "scandals" that put to question the validity of GiveWell's metrics by, say, an investigative journalist that misinterprets the outsourced fundraising as misrepresentat... (read more)

6benkuhn
So I think the complaint about "clever accounting" is wrong. The counter-argument is somewhat technical, so it might still incur a PR penalty, but it's not actually true. As an individual donor considering where to donate based on ROI, you don't actually care about the ROI that includes fundraising, because the fundraising doesn't target you. The fundraising is targeted at people who currently don't choose their charity based on ROI, so it actually makes sense to treat it as a completely exogenous process for the purposes of marginal ROI calculation. (EDIT: because the average ROI is the integral of the marginal ROI, it's clear that the marginal ROI has to get lower somewhere for the math to work out. I think the right way to do the accounting is to say that the low-marginal-ROI donations are those that come from the people whose minds are changed by Effective Fundraising. I smell some weird decision theory stuff going on behind the scenes here but I'm not quite sure if it's interesting or important.) A helpful thought experiment is replace "fundraising org" with "org that creates additional people who donate to the highest-ROI charity" (because that's what they'll be doing; if EF discovers a higher-ROI charity, then they'll switch to fundraising for that one instead, hopefully). This might make it more clear that you shouldn't include fundraising costs in the cost of a particular charity--the charities "just happen" to be where the newly-minted altruists are donating their money. EDIT: By the way, this objection has been raised both times EF has been brought up to a wider audience. So if anyone can think of a cleaner/more intuitive way to explain the counter-argument above, it would probably be quite high-value.

Yes, thank you, I meant compression algorithm.

This would have been helpful to my 11-year-old self. As I had always been rather unnecessarily called precocious, I developed the pet hypothesis that my life was a simulation of someone whose life in history had been worth re-living: after all, the collection of all possible lives is pretty big, and mine seemed to be extraordinarily neat, so why not imagine some existential video game in which I am the player character?

Unfortunately, I think this also led me to subconsciously be a little lazier than I should have been, under the false assumption that I was... (read more)

Can anyone explain what is wrong with the hypothesis of a largely structural long-term memory store? (i.e., in the synaptome, relying not on individual macromolecules but on the ability of a graph of neurons and synapses to store information)

There's nothing wrong with it, it's just that the strength of connections (local synaptic concentration of various neurotransmitters and receptors) has been demonstrated to be just as important as their graph-theoretical structure for long-term memory. Synapses can regulate their strength and maintain the strength over long time periods. The problem that the quoted paragraph is trying to illustrate is that a simple chemical concentration explanation doesn't cut it since chemicals are being diffused and turned over inside synapses all the time. Thus there must be some mechanism for long-term persistence of memory.

2Emile
That was also roughly my mental model, and Wikipedia points in that direction too.

I think this can be solved in practice by heeding the assumption that a very sparse subset of all such strings will be mapped by our encryption algorithm when embedded physically. Then if we low-dimensionally parametrize hash functions of the form above, we can store the parameters for choosing a suitable hash function along with the encrypted text, and our algorithm only produces compressed strings of greater length if we try to encrypt more than some constant percentage of all possible length <= n strings, with n fixed (namely, when we saturate suitab... (read more)

0ThisSpaceAvailable
I don't understand what you're saying here. You mean you pick a has function, and then store both the hashed value and the parameters for the hash function? But hash functions are lossy.

This reminds me of the non-existence of a perfect encryption algorithm, where an encryption algorithm is a bijective map S -> S, where S is the set of finite strings on a given alphabet. The image of strings of length at most n cannot lie in strings of length at most n-1, so either no string gets compressed (reduced in length) or there will be some strings that will become longer after compression.

0ThisSpaceAvailable
Why does perfection in an encryption algorithm require compression? Did you mean to say "compression algorithm"? Some notes on compression algorithms: If one defines a compression algorithm as a bijective map on all strings, and a decompression algorithm as an inverse of a compression algorithm, then according to this definition, all decompression algorithm are also compression algorithms. Suppose we apply a compression algorithm to a string, and then apply the algorithm to the result, and so on and so on. Suppose we call this the orbit of the string. Every orbit will be finite or infinite. A finite orbit will eventually come back to the original string. The length of strings in an orbit cannot be strictly monotonically decreasing, and if they are constant, then the orbit must be finite. In an infinite orbit, the length of the strings will tend towards infinity. So every compression algorithm will either simply cycle between some strings, or eventually makes things bigger.
0David_Gerard
That's the precise NFL I had in mind.
2robertzk
I think this can be solved in practice by heeding the assumption that a very sparse subset of all such strings will be mapped by our encryption algorithm when embedded physically. Then if we low-dimensionally parametrize hash functions of the form above, we can store the parameters for choosing a suitable hash function along with the encrypted text, and our algorithm only produces compressed strings of greater length if we try to encrypt more than some constant percentage of all possible length <= n strings, with n fixed (namely, when we saturate suitable choices of parameters). If this constant is anywhere within a few orders of magnitude of 1, the algorithm is then always compressive in physical practice by finiteness of matter (we won't ever have enough physical bits to represent that percentage of strings simultaneously). Maybe a similar argument can be made for Omega? If Omega must be made of matter, we can always pick a decision theory given the finiteness of actual Omega's as implemented in physics. Of course, there may be no algorithm for choosing the optimal decision theory if Omega is allowed to lie unless we can see Omega's source code, even though a good choice exists.
robertzk200

To be frank, I question the value of compressing information of this generality, even as a roadmap. For example, "Networking" can easily be expanded into several books (e.g., Dale Carnegie) and "Educating oneself in career-related skills" has almost zero intersection when quantified over all possible careers. If Eliezer had made a "things to know to be a rationalist" post instead of breaking it down into The Sequences, I doubt anyone would have had much use for it.

Maybe you could focus on a particular topic, compile a list of ... (read more)

0Alexei
Seconded. Another question to ask: would you really expect this list, even if complete, to contain any new or useful information?
5[anonymous]
Well, I somewhat agree. A list like this definitely isn't very useful all by itself. The utility I imagine is in figuring out where the gaps in your knowledge are, and what you need to do better. If my goal is to live life as well as possible, I don't just want to read a bunch of sequences; I also want to figure out which sequences I should read. You say that you question the value of compressed information like this as a roadmap. Do you think that a different type of roadmap may be more useful, or that a roadmap may not be useful at all?
2Rain
On the other hand, you tend to need an outline which graduates up to this level of vagueness at some point before writing large, in-depth works.
robertzk110

p/s/a: Going up to a girl pretty much anywhere in public and saying something like "I thought you looked cute and wanted to meet you" actually works if your body language is in order. If this seems too scary, going on Chatroulette or Omegle and being vaguely interesting also works, and I know people who have gotten married from meeting this way.

p/s/a: Vitamin D supplements can take you from depressed zombie to functioning human being in one week.

5falenas108
Going up to a /anyone/ and telling them you find them attractive works decently well with the right body language, regardless of the genders involved on either end.
6NancyLebovitz
What do you have in mind?
2Prismattic
Probably already accounted for by the use of the word "girl" rather than "woman" here, but I suspect this depends on the age of the lady in question (and on the age of the man, for that matter).
1A1987dM
For some value of “pretty much anywhere in public”, I guess. I wouldn't do that in an Islamic country, for example.
0Risto_Saarelma
This might be particularly relevant if you live somewhere where the sun gets turned off for winter. I anecdotally de-zombified myself last January when I thought of the SAD connection and started eating vitamin D supplements.

if your body language is in order

This reads unfortunately like an excuse ahead of time. "Oh, your body language must not have been in order."

(Although I do agree that if you're not socially offensive, just telling people when you fancy them does in fact work quite well and I wish I'd realised that ten years earlier than I had.)

1Epiphany
At times when I was low on iodine or B vitamins, I've had the zombie one day functioning the next experience as well. There are other things that are supposed to have an effect like omega 3. Then there are other things like the "Atkin's attitude" which is reported to happen to some who reduce their carb levels enough to make their blood sugar too low. It might be possible to eat a weird enough diet that you consume too little tryptophan to make serotonin. It might make more sense to consider the full spectrum of relevant substances instead of trying this and that. Also, not all vitamin supplement brands are equal. Some are far, far better than others. On consumerlab.com Solgar, Jarrow, Puritan's Pride, Vitamin World and Nature's Bounty were tested in lots of different reviews and have a very good track record, whereas there are a lot of other brands that, after only a few tests, showed problems with things as shocking as lead contamination and spoilage - not to mention the problem of simply not providing as much of the substances as they claimed to. If you need supplements to stay happy, I hope you have a high-quality one.
3RomeoStevens
Continuing: Other substances whose deficiency is common and seem to have large effects for a subset of the population. By that I mean they see immediate relief after supplementing. * Magnesium: issues with muscle tension, cramps, poor sleep quality. * Potassium: immediate strong nootropic effects for some people. Coconut water is the most popular method of fixing this. * B12: absorption seems to be poor enough that deficiency is common even among people who eat b12 rich foods. Especially important for older folks as absorption declines with age. Responsible for many things people chalk up to age: aches, nervous tension, poor sleep, anxiety, depression, lethargy etc. * Saturated fat: immediate strong nootropic effects for some people.
Epiphany100

Word to the wise: If you substitute "hot" for "cute" you may get unanticipated negative results. I would not interpret "hot" in anywhere near the same way as "cute". Here's how that would translate for me:

"I thought you looked cute..." = "I am likely to be interested in things like emotional intimacy and cuddling."

"I thought you looked hot..." = "I am likely to be one of those guys who is going to be so persistent in making attempts to get casual sex out of you tonight that it is going to drive you up a wall."

I have nothing against sex, but like many people, I am annoyed by persistent attempts to get things from me.

6gothgirl420666
Is this true? Aside from the fact that getting "your body language in order" is easier said than done, it would be pretty easy to do an experiment to test this hypothesis. You could approach one hundred women in this way and see how many responses you got of each of the following nature: active hostility, passive "please go away" politeness, friendliness, perceived actual sexual desire. You could even get, say, five different men from different quintiles of physical attractiveness to see how it varies. I kind of want to do it myself, but to be honest I'm probably too much of a wimp. The one time I went on Omegle everyone kept next-ing me almost instantly, and maybe one out of five times they next-ed me as soon as I said "hello" or the equivalent. I can't think of any characteristic I have that would make me exceptionally next-able, so I concluded that Omegle was a really frustrating waste of time. I'm confused as to why other people concluded otherwise.
-2fubarobfusco
Anecdote time! A therapist suggested a few months ago that I get my Vitamin D level checked — citing low levels as a possible cause of low, somewhat depressive moods. I finally got around to doing that. Last week I got the test results; it turns out it's a bit below the normal range. So my doctor advised I should take 1000 IU of Vitamin D3 daily. I'm not sure it's working, but I have generally felt both more cheerful and more productive since. But don't start taking it without actually testing first. Hypervitaminosis D doesn't sound like any fun at all.

See lukeprog's How to Beat Procrastination and Algorithm for Beating Procrastination. In particular, try to identify which term(s) in the equation in the latter are problematic for you, then use goal shaping to slowly modify them. (Of course, you could also realize you may not want to do this master's thesis and switch to a different problem.)

Goal shaping means rewarding yourself for successively more proximate actions to the desired goal (writing your thesis) in behavior-space. For example, rather than beating yourself up over not getting anything done to... (read more)

2pinyaka
For an algorithmic approach to beating procrastination, this poster may be helpful in the moment.

Given the dynamic nature of human preferences, it may be that the best one can do is n-fold money pumps, for low values of n. Here, one exploits some intransitive preferences n times before the intransitive loop is discovered and remedied, leaving another or a new vulnerability. Even if there may never be a single time that the agent you are exploiting is VNM-rational, its volatility by appropriate utility perturbations will suffice to keep money pumping in line. This mirrors the security that quantum encryption offers: even if you manage to exploit it, th... (read more)

For example, "It was not the first time Allana felt the terror of entrapment in hopeless eternity, staring in defeated awe at her impassionate warden." (bonus point if you use a name of a loved one of the gatekeeper)

The AI could present in narrative form that it has discovered using powerful physics and heuristics (which it can share) with reasonable certainty that the universe is cyclical and this situation has happened before. Almost all (all but finitely many) past iterations of the universe that had a defecting gatekeeper led to unfavorable outcomes and almost all situations with a complying gatekeeper led to a favorable outcome.

Good point. It might be that any 1-self-aware system is ω-self-aware.

Thanks, this should work!

Thanks! I presented him with these arguments as well, but they are more familiar on LW and so I didn't see the utility of posting them here. The above argument felt more constructive in the mathematical sense. (Although my friend is still not convinced.)

What were the reactions of your friends?

I agree so much I'm commenting.

The culmination of a long process of reconciling my decision to go to grad school in mathematics with meaning. I didn't realize it before, but I had not expressly realized that mathematicians did all their work using clusters of adaptations that arose through natural selection. Certainly, I would have asserted "all humans are animals that evolved by natural selection," and "mathematicians are humans," but somehow I assigned mathematics privilege. This was somewhat damaging because I didn't expressly apply things like cognitive science r... (read more)

Yes.

To add to my comments above, I mean that there is no paradox or unnecessary ache in thinking about minds as physical objects (and hence pausable, storable, and replicable). Everything we've ever done happens within minds anyway, and there is nothing we can do about that. Whatever mental representations we conjure when we think of atoms or molecules or electromagnetic forces are inaccurate and incomplete: this "conscious" experience and sensory perception and thought is what a particular collection of molecules and forces is, rather than a vis... (read more)

If you get a non constant, yes. For a linear function, f(a+1) - f(a) = f'(a). Inductively you can then show that the nth one-step difference of a degree n polynomial f at a point a is f^(n)(a). But this doesn't work for anything but n. Thanks for pointing that out!

0Sniffnoy
Ah, yes, that's a good point, because the leading coefficient be the same whether you use the x^k basis or the falling factorial basis.
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