This post is part of a sequence. Previous post: Design sketches for angels-on-the shoulder We’ve recently published a set of design sketches for tools for strategic awareness. We think that near-term AI could help a wide variety of actors to have a more grounded and accurate perspective on their situation,...
We don’t think that humanity knows what it’s doing when it comes to AI progress. More and more people are working on developing better systems and trying to understand what their impacts will be — but our foresight is just very limited, and things are getting faster and faster. Imagine...
This post is part of a sequence. Previous post: Design sketches: collective epistemics | Next post: Strategic awareness tools: design sketches We’ve recently published a set of design sketches for technological analogues to ‘angels-on-the-shoulder’: customized tools that leverage near-term AI systems to help people better navigate their environments and handle...
This note was written as part of a research avenue that I don’t currently plan to pursue further. It’s more like work-in-progress than Forethought’s usual publications, but I’m sharing it as I think some people may find it useful. Introduction At some point a company, country, or coalition of countries...
This is a rough research note. It’s an informal literature review of voting structures in international organisations. I spent ~20 hours on it and am not a domain expert. A lot of the information comes from conversations with language models. Summary There’s a lot of scholarship on international orgs and...
I recently wrote 80k’s new problem profile on extreme power concentration (with a lot of help from others - see the acknowledgements at the bottom). It’s meant to be a systematic introduction to the risk of AI-enabled power concentration, where AI enables a small group of humans to amass huge...
A prompt I like for thinking about what AI macrostrategy needs to achieve is “what would the adults in the room know about our situation, prior to the transition to advanced AI?” The hypothetical I’m imagining is something like: * We’re on the cusp of an epochal shift to an...