All of rosiecam's Comments + Replies

Nice!! I don't know much about that moisturizer but the rest looks good to me

Seems like the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of sunscreen, the studies I've seen against it generally seem to not address the obvious confounder that people who tend to wear sunscreen more are also the ones who have a lifestyle that involves being in the sun a lot more.

• I used to get breakouts maybe like once a month, sometimes with really stubborn/painful zits that would take quite a long time to disappear. Now I basically never get breakouts, I think I've had like 2 small zits since I started and they have disappeared quickly. I have not had any big painful ones.
• My fine lines have been reduced, my skin looks and feels smoother and softer
• I had some redness/discoloration in some areas which has been reduced a lot - no longer needs to be covered with makeup

Dermatica prompts you to send them photos every few months so they can check how your skin is reacting, but it's also convenient because you can look back and see the improvement.

Very helpful, thank you for the extra detail!

oh super helpful, thanks!

It says to reapply every two hours but I... do not do that 😅 I put it on in the morning and would reapply if I was spending time outside. I don't know how important the "every 2 hours" thing is

Oh nice! My retinoid formula and moisturizer have hyaluronic acid mixed in so it's hard for me to isolate its effects, but a lot of people seem to find it hugely beneficial

Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding

Ok this confirms you haven't understood what I'm claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I'm not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn't matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, ... (read more)

I hereby offer you 2000$ if you provide me with a list of this kind

Can you specify what you mean by 'of this kind', i.e. what are the criteria for predictions included on the list? Do you mean a series of predictions which give a narrow range?

I agree there is a difference between those lists if you are evaluating everything with respect to each prediction being 'true'. My point is that sometimes a 50% prediction is impressive when it turns out to be false, because everyone else would have put a higher percentage than 50% on it being true. The first list contains only statements that are impressive if evaluated as true, the second mixes ones that would be impressive if evaluated as true with those that are impressive if evaluated as false. If Tesla's stock ends up at $513, it feel... (read more)

Thanks for the response!

I don't think there is any difference in those lists! Here's why:

The impressiveness of 50% predictions can only be evaluated with respect to common wisdom. If everyone thinks P is only 10% likely, and you give it 50%, and P turns out to be true, this is impressive because you gave it a surprisingly high percentage! But also if everyone says P is 90% likely, and P turns out to be false, this is also impressive because you gave it a surprisingly low percentage!

I think what you're suggesting is that people should always... (read more)

I had the same feeling and have written up my thoughts in this comment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions?commentId=RykR3sX57jbbLJaRB

As has been noted, the impressiveness of the predictions has nothing to do with which way round they are stated; predicting P at 50% is exactly as impressive as predicting ¬P at 50% because they are literally the same. I think one only sounds more impressive when compared to the 'baseline' because our brains seem to be more attuned to predictions that sound surprisingly high, and we don't seem to notice ones that seem surprisingly low. I.e., we hear: 'there is a 40% chance that Joe Biden will be the democratic nominee' and som... (read more)

I'm constantly experimenting with it! The downside of it being so flexible is that it can take a while to figure out the best system.

At the moment, everything goes into one database called 'Notes'. I enabled the 'Created at' and 'Edited at' properties. I also have multi-select properties for themes (e.g. rationality, productivity, economics, etc) and for type (e.g. random thought, blog idea, resource, article, tool, etc). I also have a checkbox property called 'processed' - and I filter the view of the table to... (read more)

There seems to be some evidence that a norm of helmet-wearing discourages people from cycling. When people don't wear helmets, they are taking on some personal risk, but by challenging the norm it could mean that more people take up cycling. This is likely to make cycling safer (fewer cars on the roads, drivers are more used to cyclists, safety in numbers at intersections etc), and so the need to wear a helmet is reduced.

I'd prefer to live in a world where more people cycle and helmets aren't (as) needed (like in European cities such as Berlin and Amsterdam), so I tend to feel grateful towards people who don't wear helmets.

This is great, I can see it being really helpful for me to consciously think about which of these I'm optimizing for (or am willing to sacrifice) when writing. I got confused by the introduction of the term 'density' in the section on trade-offs, as this isn't represented in the RAIN framework. Is density just a sub-consideration of accessibility or are you considering it in its own right?

FWIW, there seems to be a trend in my corner of the AI safety community (CHAI) to move away from the term 'values' and towards the term 'preferences', I think for similar reasons.