Assuming the bureaucracy is hierarchical, the maximizer may vary depending on the level. At the lower levels, a process-maximizer may best model behavior. Map versus territory. Akin to a mis-aligned AI paperclip-maximizer, reward is based on adherence to process, results do not matter. Mid-hierarchical levels are budget-maximizers. Body-count may be a surrogate. The bureaucratic topology that emerges and morphs at these mid-levels is where things become chaotic for the higher levels. Perhaps entrenchment, power, consensus, and hubris-maximizers join the da...
The advice is: do not bet. Suppose you download a gambling app that bets on games where the outcome is similar to a coin flip. You start receiving emails from someone associated with the app (so they bypass your spam filters). Each day for 20 days you receive an email predicting the outcome of the game. Each of the 20 predictions is correct. What do you do? Nothing. What you are unaware of (but should suspect) is that on the first email, the sender has sent out 8 million emails making a prediction (it is a popular gambling app). 4 million of those predicte... (read more)