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Imagine the gap between GPT-2 and GPT-3. Imagine the gap between GPT-3 and GPT-4. Let's suppose GPT-5 has the same gap with GPT-4, and GPT-6 has the same gap with GPT-5, and so on till GPT-8. It is still entirely possible that GPT-8 is not better than the best of...

Papers about LLM scaling law projections don't make an attempt to estimate base rate of technological progress. In particular, they don't make an attempt to estimate the base rate of false alarms when inventing new science and technology. If you study any hard science (not computer science) you realise how...