All of SanguineEmpiricist's Comments + Replies

Salafi support will decrease tremendously no matter what you say, Syria is too important, it defeats all other concerns and is preeminent not only right now, but for history. Syria has greco-roman heritage too. Only white people would obscurantly try to say Trump is not a great candidate.

I don't think that the world would give a president Trump prestige even if he ends the Syrian war.

They gave some random ass president prestige for destroying 3 countries and accomplishing nothing significant. My race is the race of the anti-mohammeans, and such are my metaphysical biases, that will remain this way.

-4ernestdezoe
Oh god , we're talking about the star of a reality show who had to decide who between Bret Michaels and Cindy Lauper would have been a better CEO for a company that doesn't exist... Also : * He went bankrupt more time than one could possibly count * Evades taxes , * Has a terrible reputation in the construction business because he doesn't pay people or unilaterally renegotiate terms * Has 3550 something law suits filled against him * Never donated a dollar to charity * Thinks Global Warming is a hoax made up by the chinese * Wants to build a 50 billion dollar wall which is a fucking joke just to channel that public money through his shady companies * Believes he's above the law and sexual assault doesn't apply to him because he's a reality show celebrity * He's as authoritarian as dictators like Putin and Qaddafi * Advocated for war crimes * Advocated for deportation * Threatened to jail his opponent * Threatened to kill journalists * Threatened to block the internet * Praised Putin for being a "strong leader" * Lies consistently * Advocated for violence against protesters * Spent 5 million dollars to have his bathroom plated in gold * Claimed that mexican immigrants are criminals and rapists * Didn't rule out the use of nuclear weapons in Europe * Made ridiculous promises of bringing back jobs which would not be brought back * Is anti trade even though even a 5 year old understands how trade advantages everyone * Wants to pull out the Paris agreement on climate change * Advocated for a proliferation of nuclear weapons * Advocated for an increased defense spending * Advocated for an upgrade of Minutemen ICBM nuclear missiles * Is a demagogue who appeals to the lowest common denominator * Praised Qatar for it's infrastructure built using slave labor * Used immigrant labor in each and every project he developed * Succeeded in bankrupting a casino * Completely destroyed a political party * Scammed people for millions of dollars with st
1ChristianKl
Salafi support in Syria might stop but that doesn't mean that the US doesn't still side in Yemen with the Salafi's. It doesn't mean that the US will stop the general Saudi foreign policy. Fighting Bin Ladin was also important for US foreign policy and US foreign policy did little against the Salafi's. The choice not to fight over the topic in the election is a sign of Trump not wanting to do anything to stop the Saudi's despite maybe billing them more money for the weapons we send them and billing them for having their side in Yemen. Obama got prestige for holding inspiring speeches and getting elected. His prestige on the world stage is not defined by any policy achievements. In contrast to Obama who gave the world inspiring speeches Trump scares many and therefore the world doesn't see him as prestigious.

I blocked Eliezer for gossiping too much and doing everything he can via gossip to manufacture support for his views, such as saying he knew Peter Thiel and Thiel wans't going to support Trump, I support both but he did not correct himself afaik and I blocked him because of excessively propagandizing their own views he did it to take the edge off Mr.Thiels endorsement. Julia Galef is another one that cannot stop the excessive posturing fashion show.

The situation in Syria is too important you guys, nothing else matters if we bring that one home we get our p... (read more)

3ChristianKl
What makes you think that Trump hates the Saudi's? From what I have seen he decided against making a big deal about the fact that Hillary said in the Podesta emails that the Saudi's fund ISIS. Putting attention on the issue would have been good politics in the sense of raising his chances of getting elected. Not doing so, suggests that he doesn't want to alienate the Saudi's. If I missed news stories about Trump making that link, please provide links. Trump suggested it's fine to protect Saudi's if they pay. The Saudi's do pay for the weapons that get send to them. His comments about the Saudi's getting nukes are problematic. Someone who wants to oppose the Saudi's should consider it important that they don't have nukes. I don't think that the world would give a president Trump prestige even if he ends the Syrian war.

First i've heard of this, super interesting. Hmm. So what is the correct way to highlight the differences while still maintaining the historical angle? Continue w/ Riemannian geometry? Or just say what you have said, Lorentzian.

0Dacyn
Special relativity is good enough for most purposes, which means that (a time slice of) the real universe is very nearly Euclidean. So if you are going to explain the geometry of the universe to someone, you might as well just say "very nearly Euclidean, except near objects with very high gravity such as stars and black holes". I don't think it's helpful to compare with Euclid's postulates, they reflect a very different way of thinking about geometry than modern differential geometry.

I'm not sure I understand claims are supposed to be ) Universal ) not spatio-temporally restricted right? I thought pseudo-statements were a good example....?

I'm not even sure what he is asking for..

Wikipedia lists the "all swans are white" as an example for a falsifiable statement, but it is not practical enough. To prove that all swans are white would require to observe all the swans in the world. I'm searching of a simple example which uses the scientific method to determine the workings of an unknown system, starting by forming a good hypo

... (read more)
0Luke_A_Somers
No, it isn't. Unless you mean we should jump straight to continuous Bayesian updating, in which case it isn't at the level he's talking about.

g

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2[anonymous]
* People with narcissistic personality disorder should be offered avenues and support for treatment not manipulated reciprocally * If they gaslight and you are susceptible to it stop fighting them and retreat. They will win. * Gang affiliation and violent behaviour suggests you should keep safe and avoid them. That's why we have police, in case they trip up. * Choose your friends

Something tells me Gigerenzer is misquoting Kahneman, he is just saying any deviation from that counts as irrational and measuring that as his baseline, i'm more than sure he would be happy to use ecological rationality as a baseline as well.

He liked Bostrom's new institute dedicated to existential risks. He doesn't think AI is a ruin-style risk, saying it requires "risk vigilance" but isn't a ruin type risk yet, and that he would be willing to reconsider later.

He has his own risk initiative called the "Extreme risk initiative".

Excellent piece of epistemology from Yudkowsky, someone put this in main right now.

https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154067130774228

AllLivesMatterButBlackLivesAreEspeciallyLikelyToBeEndedByPolice AndItsOkayForNationalPoliticsToFocusOnThatPartForAWhile

Running this through my parser I was able to extract the statement "All live matter but black lives are especially likely to be ended by police and it's okay for national politics to focus on that part for awhile".

http://imgur.com/sbxLjPb

=/ We should tell him the opportunity cost of this stuff is too large, don't run down the clock on your life. Eugine_Nier go get a more productive way to channel this frustration.

5gjm
I wouldn't expect that to go well.
6Lumifer
Telling people to get more productive is dangerous -- they actually might :-/

What's going on in his thought process? Is he still downvoting people? What is he doing that's this bad? I mean i'm sure there's a good reason, but it's sort of strange he keeps coming back and not changing his behavior or not moving on to one of our tangent communities.

I've not dealt with him, so can someone explain to me what he is doing?

How I see it, deleting of Eugine's new accounts is a continuous enforcement of the permanent ban from 2014 (explained here). Whether he continues in his previous behavior should in theory be irrelevant; I would delete his new accounts anyway because that's what "permanent" means. But in practice, he continues with his old behavior, which makes him easier to detect, and motivates me to overcome my laziness.

9gjm
Yes, still downvoting. As Elo says, that's one way to find him, though there are others (e.g., some of his aliases have been identified very quickly, probably on style alone). As for what he's doing, I think he's fighting a culture war. He doesn't really care if he keeps getting banned; he is still able to keep posting what he does, and upvoting it with his sockpuppets[1], and mass-downvoting people who conspicuously disagree with him in the hope of reducing their credibility (and maybe making them go away). [1] That's a plausible conjecture rather than (so far as I'm aware) something known to be true. Conditional on its being true, I would guess that his socks probably also upvote other people's expressions of sociopolitical views compatible with his own.
5Elo
He was originally banned for downvoting. That's how we keep finding him. He also holds contentious views and feels as though he is being silenced for his contentious views. As we know though; lesswrong is usually very happy to entertain contentious views so long as they are presented carefully and handled like the potential mindkillers that they are. He would like his views to appear to his opposers that they are stronger than they are.

This is the exact sort of community that would delude themselves in exactly this department and would never stop arguing(not saying you do this), but if someone told me "Can you have fun/meet people without drinking", I would say "sort of, but you're better of just participating anyways".

When you drink with friends you learn why you were wrong, there's always going to be just that "one guy" who thinks he knows better though.

This is just what nerdy types tell themselves and they come up with all these rationalizations for it, most peoples skillsets don't lend themselves for that type of socialization. These people just realize they were wrong years later when it's much too late.

1Brillyant
What do you mean?
2Viliam
I recommend trying "placebo alcohol". That means, getting drunk for the first time, to get an experience of what it feels like, but to have a non-alcoholic drink the next time and merely role-play being drunk.

I did not have sleep apnea or tested negative for it and narcolepsy.

It's an incredibly good indicator of poor sleep quality for me. I have to take phenibut to get good sleep quality nowadays though.

Yes I have. I notice it has to do with body position or when my head is on a tilt.

1calef
I've found that I only ever get something sort of like sleep paralysis when I sleep flat on my back, so +1 for sleeping orientation mattering for some reason.

Drinking alcohol is very necessary for connecting with people. People who are against alcohol don't know much they miss out at times.

-2Brillyant
This is so obviously wrong. Alcohol may aid in connecting with some people some of the time.
2ChristianKl
I think that depends very much on the kind of people with whom you hang out. There are people who need alcohol to open up. On the other hand there are people who have no problem opening up without alcohol.
3Lumifer
"I drink to make other people more interesting" -- Ernest Hemingway

Do you guys know how you can prevent sleep paralysis?

1[anonymous]
For me recurrent sleep paralysis turned out to be associated with sleep apnea. Both were reduced but not eliminated by adjusting sleep position (side rather than back as others have already mentioned), wearing a mandibular adjustment device (holds the jaw in a slightly different position to avoid airway obstruction). Similarly, some changes in consumption habits reduced occurrence: reducing alcohol intake and large/rich meals shortly before sleeping. in my case these symptoms were the result of some abnormalities in my throat cartilage which eventually required surgery, but the above behaviour changes reduced occurrence substantially (approx 5 instances per week of sleep paralysis or choking to 1.2 based on 3-month diary). I made all the above adjustments together so cannot give any further indications about which of them might have helped. Or indeed, fully ruled out a placebo effect! I didn't recognise the association between sleep paralysis and apnea but it was one of the first things the head & neck specialist asked.
1James_Miller
Putting a bar of soap between bedsheets supposedly prevents leg cramps. You might want to try it for sleep paralysis keeping in mind that the placebo effect is a real thing you want to take advantage of.
0turchin
Start to use for experiments with OBE or visualization.
3ChristianKl
What makes it a problem for you? What's the problem of having a bit more conscious time while your body is at rest? Have you tried the normal sleep hacks of going every day at the same time to bed and sleeping 8 hours, having no red light an hour before bed, sleeping in a pitch black room and taking a bit Melatonin?

Alright so how do we keep these people away then while lowering prices?

0username2
You can implement Hukou system. Obviously, it would lead to other problems.

There's already too much of a pull towards the consensus opinions here, would punish us Nrxer's quite a bit.

Effective Altruists & Consequentalists tend to be vain with plausible deniability, always making a show of their set of beliefs, coming into the room loudly and attracting attention always repeating "effectiveness" "consequences". It gets annoying. I wish some would have taste.

3gjm
It sounds as if you're complaining about something someone's written in this thread, but I'm having trouble working out what (and what you dislike about it, other than maybe a more general grievance against consequentialism or EAism). Would you care to clarify? On the face of it your complaint is that EAs are attention-seeking and try to hijack other discussions onto their favoured hobby-horse. But I don't see that that happened here. helldalgo mentioned a common criticism of Zuckerberg's recent actions and disagreed with it, no part of which seems unreasonable; LessWrong introduced the topic of EA but doesn't identify as an EA so nothing s/he wrote can possibly be an example of what you describe; I corrected what looked to me like a wrong statement about EAs, which seems like an obviously unobjectionable thing to do. What am I missing?

Thank god I've seen someone else that thinks this! I was so infuriated by people saying "stop playing into their hands" as if this is supposed to be some silver bullet in this discussion.

You quoted him saying he did not shake hands, that to a lot of us seems a bit excessive. Tem42 tells us that it is more plausible to carry antibacterial wipe for hygiene concerns as opposed to a blanket bank on shaking hands, which to us, is rather strange.

If the cost/benefit is vs . It seems like the latter is more plausible, especially cause the article also said he shook hands and left.

1Soothsilver
I think the most plausible is that he does shake hands and he does not use anti-bacterial wipe, merely that he mentioned to the reporter "I prefer not to shake hands to keep myself safe" and that the reporter exaggerated.

Don't buy these comments too much. i'm glancing through them, they're much too critical. Listen to Nancy if anyone.

"Bostrom had little interest in the cocktail party. He shook a few hands, then headed for St. James’s Park, a public garden that extends from the gates of Buckingham Palace through central London. " - Article

0Soothsilver
And yet "His intensity is too untidily contained, evident in his harried gait on the streets outside his office (he does not drive), in his voracious consumption of audiobooks (played at two or three times the normal speed, to maximize efficiency), and his fastidious guarding against illnesses (he avoids handshakes and wipes down silverware beneath a tablecloth)."

Just buy high quality stuff from black markets. It's pretty simple. If you ask around you should be able to find a local hook who has some, just stay updated with the scene.

-1[anonymous]
That is improper. I prefer lawful transactions sanctioned by the expert opinions. You can get 2 'doses' of crystal MDMA here in Melbourne for $50 from 'Alex'. But who knows how good it is. Dealers don't sell purity kits and they were banned as of a few months ago from the dodgy stores like Off Ya Tree and that place near Flinders station.

Might want to take a look into the library google just open sourced http://tensorflow.org/

How are you all doing today? I'm having a pretty good start of my day(it's 11:42 am) here :P

I have found Krushke's bayesian data analysis & Gelman's text to be pretty good companions to each other and I'm glad I bought both. Personally I also found that building a physical personal library was much better for my person development than probably any other choice I made throughout the last year and a half. Libraries are definitely antifragile.

Also http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0471257095/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all Feller vol 2 paperback is 8 dollars used.

I think most people are in it to learn programming though, if we redefine comp sci like this then it sort of changes what it means.

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I don't think it would return to its current status and would most certainly decrease. You're in the wrong forum to discuss this accurately, too many sheltered kids.

Love this, Luke is actually well read so maybe it's a bit tough on him, but the casual dismissal and elitist posturing is pretty dumb and cringe inducing. Philosophy is underrated around these parts.

I don't think I said that. Lol. Very few people would use it without the current stigma, do you know how I know? Because I do coke and most of the culture is influenced by its illegality by a significant degree. It would just reduce to a baseline number, and it's hard to imagine people destroying their lives due to cocaine if you're not living in a world of mythology.

Where's gwern when you need him?

2VoiceOfRa
I agree, coke culture would be different if it was legal. Doesn't mean people wouldn't use it, do you know how I know? Because it used to be legal and people did use it, a lot.
0VoiceOfRa
Well, back when it used to be legal a lot of people did do it. Also, it caused so many problems that a movement started to ban it.
0James_Miller
I think that whatever we do with drugs, lots and lots of people are going to suffer. I'm not claiming that on net that the drug war is good, just that it almost certainly stops many people from getting addicted to drugs. I would still favor legalization of most drugs, but I admit enacting this position will have significant (although probably not net) costs. The fact that most Americans support keeping lots of drugs illegal probably shows that most Americans recognize that legalizing all drugs would push up drug consumption and create more wasted lives and more collateral damage from drug users.

Cocaine is not even close to as dangerous as heroin, the physical debilitation from alcohol and cannabis is far more extreme than anything with coke, in fact most are underwhelmed and cannot see the point.

Sup friends, suggest books on subjective probability, statistical inference, or decision theory that are good buys. I have a lot but want to furnish my collection a little. Let's go on a spending spree!!

Also anyone know how to get good deals on used books? Recommend me books in general to purchase as well. De Finetti's textbooks are quite expensive....

4ike
If you're up to reading ebooks, you can often find a copy for free. For physical books, I use http://dealoz.com/ , which aggregates many other book-selling sites. Or you might be able to get them from a library near you, depending on their network and popularity of the book in question.

Just to be clear, when reading any of Charles Sanders Pierce i have never gotten a hint of "Charlatanism". Including Peirce among those names amounts to blasphemy.

5grouchymusicologist
Well, exactly. That's what I meant when I said that it was very confusing to me, as a young grad student in an outside field, to have a course that assigned Peirce and Lacan side by side with a straight face, evidently taking them equally seriously.
5sixes_and_sevens
Similarly, I've read Austin's How to Do Things With Words. He's not winning any awards for his prose style, but he has a comprehensible project which he goes about in a rigorous, methodical way.

We know that religion is false but it does something extremely difficult to do which makes it difficult for the atheists(such as myself) to continue, that it is the solution to the extended family. It increases trust among heterogeneous population bases and increases trust among unrelated peoples. Trust is a very scarce resource. Many people forgot to consider this and this is something that I have had to do a complete 180 on. I can no longer continue anti-religiousness as it is anti-civilization and anti-cohesiveness for a society.

I hope this makes you happy.

Start here:

http://www.propertarianism.com/reading-list/ or http://moldbuggery.blogspot.com/ start with open letter to progressives or gentle introduction

no, we're not all necessarily racists, only some.

http://www.propertarianism.com/ just browse around.

Girard's original texts concerning this is magnificent. Everyone needs to know more about Girard.

It's hard to explain, i'll edit it in later if I think of a good explanation.

It's just the overly pedantic style complimented by a lovely personality and the passive framing. It has to do with the organizational style as well, maybe a bit too spruced up? Don't let me get you down though, I didn't mean it like that.

I would say that one of the biggest things that changed is the fact that there are too many posts like the one i'm responding to. I'm not sure what it is, but i think most others can see it.

The wrong thing to link to is the "typical mind fallacy".

1gjm
As probably the person with most to gain from understanding what you think is deplorable about the comment you were replying to (I'm assuming, perhaps wrongly, that you are referring to my comment rather than the original post), I regret that it's not at all clear to me; perhaps my brain just doesn't work as well as those of "most others". Perhaps you might like to give me a clue? Even if you're not sure what you don't like, you must have some idea. * Navel-gazing introspection about Less Wrong? * Lengthy analysis of something you consider not worth analysing at length? * Something you think I got wrong in that analysis? * Something you don't like about my comments about the "Sequences"? * A writing style that doesn't appeal to you? * Something entirely different? (Responding super-briefly to the first three: I agree that LW has too much navel-gazing and mostly talk about other things; I think thinking clearly about things is a useful skill and worth practising even when the objects available for practising on aren't the most interesting imaginable; I may have made errors but they aren't obvious to me. I don't think I have anything to say about the others without more specific criticism.)

Bishop built real analysis constructively right? Jayne's probability theory is from finite sets as well.

I think if we just added a table for synonyms and have and a few more we would be good.

Part of the reason it is losing steam is there is a small quantity of posters that post wayyyy too much using up everyone's time and they hardly contribute anything. Too many contrarians.

We have a lot of regular haters that could use some toning down.

Now that's interesting! Discussing governance structures capable of resolving these kinds of situations when they come up? Also very interesting. Discussing the current problem? Not really very interesting at all.

Then just start talking about it. I'm very happy to respond and talk about stuff like that, it definitely does sound interesting.

How come we can talk about fiction threads and risk in far mode but not this? Even if it is a political situation we can still discuss it. We talk about all sorts of x-risk this and that, I think it's more than alright to discussion a drought affecting where the most of us live.

4Dentin
For me personally, it's because this is completely, utterly, a political problem. Only political solutions will fix it. That puts it pretty firmly in the 'uninteresting' category, and as it's politics I'd rather not see it on LW. However, there is a way to slightly change the topic to make it interesting: just go out one meta-level. Instead of worrying about the current stupidity, talk about the x-risk of politics in general. Use this scenario as an example or case study of how political failure is/can/will be a problem for the human race. Use this scenario to evaluate new structures and apply existing best practices to determine what a proper outcome should be. Finding ways to structure society in the future such that this sort of situation is less likely? Now that's interesting! Discussing governance structures capable of resolving these kinds of situations when they come up? Also very interesting. Discussing the current problem? Not really very interesting at all.
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