Certainly. The probability of Christianity having more followers than Islam is greater if Jesus rose from the dead and less if he did not.
It's not necessarily strong evidence of course. Disavowing Islam has enormous social consequences, so I would expect there to be a large number of Muslims in both the world where Muhammad received the Quran from Gabriel and the world where Muhammad hallucinated. But I still expect there to be more Christians if Jesus rose from the dead than if he did not.
IQ is only weakly correlated to rationality. A much better thing to... (read more)
But Jesus isn't a randomly-selected human. He already had followers before being executed by the state, so shouldn't we be using the probability of a randomly-selected religion/cult leader rising from the dead? (Not that that's much different.)
Though I'm not sure we have enough information to use Bayes' rule properly here. P(Person rose from the dead | Person is God) = 1, and we'll assume¹ that P(Person is God | Person rose from the dead) = 1 so that we just need to consider "person rose from the dead"… okay, never mind, I just got it wrong. Your argument holds.
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¹: even though that's a simplification from a theological point of view; the argument could be made rigorous by your particular denomination simply by making this statement specific enough to be correct
Certainly. The probability of Christianity having more followers than Islam is greater if Jesus rose from the dead and less if he did not.
It's not necessarily strong evidence of course. Disavowing Islam has enormous social consequences, so I would expect there to be a large number of Muslims in both the world where Muhammad received the Quran from Gabriel and the world where Muhammad hallucinated. But I still expect there to be more Christians if Jesus rose from the dead than if he did not.
IQ is only weakly correlated to rationality. A much better thing to... (read more)