Insight volume/quality doesn't seem meaningfully correlated with hours worked (see June Huh for an extreme example), high-insight people tend to have work schedules optimized for their mental comfort. I don't think encouraging someone who's producing insights at 35 hours per week to work 60 hours per week is positive will result in more alignment progress, and I also doubt that the only people producing insight are those working 60 hours per week.
EDIT: this of course relies on the prior belief that more insights are what we need for alignment right now.
This seems to support Reward is Enough.
More specifically:
DM simulates a lower fidelity version of real world physics -> Applies real world AI methods -> Achieves generalised AI performance.
This is a pretty concrete demonstration that current AI methods are sufficient to achieve generality, just need more real world data to match the more complex physics of reality.
I like this story, it touches on certainty bounds relative to superintelligence, which I think is an underexplored concept. That is: if you're an AGI that knows every bit of information relevant to a certain plan, and has the "cognitive" power to make use of this info, what would you estimate your plan's chance of success to be? Can it ever reach 100%?
To be fair, I don't think answers to this question are very tractable right now, afaict we don't have detailed enough physics to usefully estimate our world's level of determinism. But this feature-of-univers... (read more)