All of Sinal's Comments + Replies

Sinal10

I think this EA forum post explaining Shapley Values encapsulates my current opinion better than my comments above.

Sinal10

Actually I was saying that if only tie breaks matter, then in the case of a tie-break, everyone who voted for the losing party also saves 10,000 lives each. Because if they didn't vote against saving lives, then it wouldn't be a tie break, and then no individual would save any lives at all.

Of course, I don't actually believe that - I think voting matters even if it wouldn't break a tie.

In the scenario where you vote last in the tie-break, it is true everything depends on you. But everything depended on everyone else too, even though th... (read more)

1bfinn
Yes I follow your argument, though I'm a bit doubtful about a result that produces a large difference between utility function and moral credit. Re your Supreme Court example (and I agree this is a clearer way of thinking about it), I don't quite follow the argument. It's true that if the other justices had voted differently, more of them would have had to vote differently ('flip') had you done so, but as it's a given that you knew how everyone else was going to vote, flipping is ruled out - their votes are set in stone. And re 'still each justice's preference... matters', I wasn't clear if this is the same point or a separate point - i.e. a signalling or similar argument that the size of the majority matters, e.g. politically.
Sinal120

In one sense, "Rationality" is used to signify that something is part of the community that is associated with EA, Lesswrong, SSC, rationalist tumblr, secular solstice etc. If someone asked me "I have a successful life, what use is Rationality?" in this sense, I would probably reply there might not be any use at all. I happen to like rationalist tumblr and SSC and I like going to the SSC meetups at David Friedman's house, but you may or may not. Whatever floats your boat.

Now, if somebody ACTUALLY asked me "what use is rational... (read more)

Sinal60

I don't get the sentiment of "your vote only matters if it would be an exact tie otherwise." By that logic, if the outcome of a US presidential election would either save 10,000 lives or not, then the altruistic thing to do is to get the vote as close 50/50 as possible, so that every voter can save 10,000 lives each for a total of 3 trillion lives saved, as opposed to the normal outcome, where no lives are saved at all.

1bfinn
Hmm, I see your point; but if each vote is independent, then given how all the other voters voted, my vote really does decide the election. E.g. if I go into the ballot box, what I write on my poll slip does not cause and is not caused by what's written on all the other slips (as I don't see them and they don't see mine). How about this thought experiment: I am the very last person in the country to vote. Unknown to anyone, all the votes made before mine constitute a tie, so my vote will be the deciding vote. Then it really is the case that if I vote one way, 10,000 lives are saved, and the other way, none are. And it is also the case that, given how I voted, if my neighbour had voted the other way, he would have changed the outcome too. (Incidentally it seems only people who vote the same way as me have the power to decide the outcome, given how I voted.) I do sense the counterfactual complications. Is your argument that the 10,000 lives saved should be apportioned among all the voters in the case of a tie-break, and hence it still isn't worth anyone's while voting? What is the argument for apportioning? [ADDED:] Here's a further hand-wavy argument: You're saying that in the case of a tie-break, everyone who voted for the winning party each gets to save 10,000 lives (overcounting the benefit). But in a normal outcome with no tie-break, none of them do, even though 10,000 lives are still saved (undercounting the benefit). If we account differently, with only the final voter getting the 10,000-life benefit in the tie-break case, and all voters for the winning party (or all after a majority was reached?) sharing the 10,000 in the normal case, so that in every winning scenario the benefit adds up to exactly 10,000 lives (more intuitively), doesn't it all work out the same in terms of expected benefit per voter? (I wonder, without thinking/calculating further.)
Sinal40

Don't know if anyone still follows this 7 year old thread but-

I strongly recommend Marie Kondo's book The Life Changing Magic of Tidying Up. The gist is you declutter by category of item instead of by room: first do all of the dishes, then do all your clothing items, then books, etc. For instance, to declutter your closet, take out all the clothes and sort into two piles: clothes that make you happy and clothes that don't.

I've also found that goodwill will accept lots of different kinds of items not just clothes.

And remember, it's... (read more)

Sinal30

This post makes me miss my days in marching band, or in the Boy Scouts. Honestly it doesn't sound all that authoritarian. Can you not accomplish the same thing using a traditional organization and a meeting place? Why does it have to be a house?

8Qiaochu_Yuan
A couple of reasons occur to me. First, everyone's real goddamn busy. If you already live in a rationalist house and also have a job there's not gonna be a ton of time or attention left in your life for other stuff as big as what Duncan wants Dragon Army to be. Second, Duncan wants people to do things like exercise with each other first thing in the morning before heading off to work, and it seems really annoyingly difficult to coordinate something like this with anyone other than the people you live with. In general it's just way, way easier to coordinate all sorts of activities with the people you live with than with anybody else. My most direct experience with this was living in a fraternity and seeing the difference between the brothers who did and didn't live in the house; there was a big difference in terms of social accessibility and bonding, and accordingly we strongly encouraged people to live in the house when at all possible.

This post makes me miss my days in marching band, or in the Boy Scouts. Honestly it doesn't sound all that authoritarian.

I agree with the sentiment. It seems that most things in modern culture like marching band or Boy Scouts which demand commitment and/or group cohesion are at least a few decades old. I suspect this is because we have developed cultural antibodies towards the creation of new things like this (as evidenced by some of the comments in this thread).

When Tocqueville visited the United States in the 1830s, it was the Americans' propensit

... (read more)
Sinal00

The food policy strikes me as one of the more trivial and unimportant parts of the proposal. I'm not saying you're taking it too seriously -- I think that shared living spaces should have clear rules about who gets to eat what. It's just that this particular food policy seems easily to change without changing the core "authoritarian" structure of the Dragon Barracks.

Funny story by the way, I really like it.

2ChristianKl
To add to the story, the person who wanted to bake the cake build the oven for baking it beforehand out of parts like an old washing machine.
Sinal30

I personally found this post to be quite insightful. I previously made plenty of vague goals that I never did, such as "apply for internships", "fill out this form", and shower more often." I have heard the advice "set specific goals" before, but the idea of turning vague goals into if-then" goals has never occurred to me before.

Of course, since I just read this post a few minutes ago, I don't know whether the idea actually translates into increased productivity or not.

Sinal-10

Maybe rss feeds?

Sinal60

I just performed this experiment assuming I wouldn't be able to discern tap water from water cooler water, but I was able to--my tap water is slightly more metallic tasting.

Sinal30

Link for the video doesn't work

1Vlad Sitalo
Curious if people found good alternative videos/intro materials for this that worked well?
Sinal280

Done, but I'm afraid the fingertip measurements were not very precise