All of Sticky's Comments + Replies

Sticky70

Most hands of poker are decided without showing the cards. Does that make the cards irrelevant? Of course not; everything that happens is conditioned by the probable outcome if there were a showdown, as judged by the players in the hand. Changing one player's hand could change everything, even if no one else ever sees it.

A change in the way verdicts are reached will be much more powerful, being seen by both sides. Therefore even if nothing is done about the plea bargain system (and something should be done), the key to the game is still the "showdown".

Sticky10

There may be some other sort of penalty that would both deter recidivism and also deter people from beginning criminality. Corporal punishment, for example.

Sticky10

It seems unlikely that people would think that way. Taking myself as an example, I favor an extensive reworking of the powers, internal organization, and mode of election of the U.S. House of Representatives. I know that I'm the only person in the world who favors my program, because I invented it and haven't yet described it completely. I've described parts of it in online venues, each of which has a rather narrow, specialist audience, so there might possibly be two or three people out there who agree with me on a major portion of it, but certainly no one... (read more)

3[anonymous]
You are not facing the situation I'm describing, because it hasn't happened yet. It is a future speculation that would occur in a sufficiently transparent society. As long as you are unaware of most people's odd opinions, you can afford to shun the tiny minority of odd thinkers whose odd thoughts you are aware of, because in doing so you are only isolating yourself socially from that tiny minority, which is no skin off your nose. However, in a sufficiently transparent society you may, hypothetically, discover that 99% of everyone has at least one opinion which (previously) you were ready to shun a person for. In that hypothetical case, if you continue your policy of shunning those people, you will find yourself socially isolated to a degree that a homeless guy living under a bridge might feel sorry for. In that hypothetical situation, then, you may find yourself with no choice but to relax your standards about whether to shun people with odd opinions. On second thought, in a sense it has happened. I happen to live in that world now, because I happen to think that pretty much everybody has views about as batty is moon-hoax theorists. In reaction to finding myself in this situation, I am not inclined to shun people who espouse moon-hoax-theory-level idiocy, because I would rather have at least one or two friends.
Sticky00

I'm in. I live in Kenosha, Wi., on campus at UWP. No car.

2TobyBartels
Now http://nationalcanineresearchcouncil.com/uploaded_files/publications/230603563_Pit%20Bull%20Placebo.pdf
Sticky10

The bias toward false positives is probably especially strong in criminal cases. The archetypal criminal offense is such that it unambiguously happened (not quite like the Willingham case), and in the ancestral human environment there were far fewer people around who could have done it. That makes the priors for everyone higher, which means that for whatever level of probability you're asking for it takes less additional evidence to get there. That a person is acting strangely might well be enough -- especially since you'd have enough familiarity with that... (read more)

Sticky10

Well, unless I've remembered it wrong, only two or three people have ever survived that fall. If I'm wrong, substitute a plane. Or a personal unprotected atmospheric re-entry.

Sometime there really are problems that can't be helped.

0Thomas
Falling toward a black hole would do. No way out, except in the form of Hawking radiation, much later in your death. But don't give up even then! Schwartzshild coud be wrong. Think hard in any circumstances!!
Sticky40

Someone just threw you off the Golden Gate Bridge.

There's one problem thinking won't much help with.

But then again, to make that point I had to reach for a problem nothing could be done about.

1NancyLebovitz
There are problems which happen so quickly that you can't do sustained thinking while you're in the middle of them, but sustained thinking might help install good reflexes for the general case. For example, I fell safely on ice for the first time this past winter. I'm reasonably sure that the Five Tibetans (a sort of cross between yoga and calesthenics) strengthened the muscles around my knees and possibly had other good effects such that I didn't twist my knee.
3Thomas
The thinking how to fall to get a minimal possible damage is still a potential way out. At least, the thinking increases your odds to survive in any situation you are thrown into. How many people died needlessly of chocking, when they could invent the auto Heimlich - but they failed to do so?
simplicio110

Alas, rigorous truth is the constant enemy of the aphorism.

Sticky00

I would argue that people actually take the larger gamble when they enter romantic relationships, certainly when they get married, and probably with some other decisions like that.

Sticky00

So... have you provided her with the arguments?

3Alicorn
She wants to sign up but needs to a) talk to her fiancé, and b) wait until after the wedding, which is currently eating her money very hungrily.
Sticky10

If I rationalize it to my own satisfaction and/or just don't care, it's indistinguishable from being good.

With the added nastiness of not actually being wrong. Except that if you ever notice yourself thinking this the gig is already up.

Sticky30

This argument fails several ways. First as history. Some of the atrocities happened without central organization -- e.g., Islamic fundamentalists aren't all part of any one organization, although they've created a variety of more or less hierarchical organizations; the displacement of the Indians (which had essentially nothing to do with religion except as a stock of rationalizations for things people would have done anyway) -- and all the others had important elements of individual initiative.

(I must say I found it amusing that you concede that the crimes... (read more)

1Alexandros
I appreciate the strong feedback. Let's see the points one by one: Islamic fundamentalists may not be part of the same organization (although a very large percentage of those performing the worst acts of terrorism somewhat identify with al-quaeda or one of its affiliated organizations) but all you need is a common text as a reference point, a shared understanding of how to interpret it and what it implies, and identification with a culture that encourages blind obedience to those perceived implications. And these all exist and tie together the Islamic fundamentalists. As for displacement of Native Americans, there is a whole religiously-inspired theory about why they were to be displaced (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifest_destiny#Native_Americans) . Yes, of course there were individualistic incentives too, but they were at the very least enabled by religion. About the use of the word 'solely', I simply did not wish to get into the discussion about whether religion had any involvement at all or not. Establishing that it did not have sole responsibility was enough to proceed with my argument. I think you are reading my sentence in the reverse, as in "if it didn't have sole responsibility, it must have had partial responsibility" but this claim is nowhere to be found in the text. My claim allows for religion to have some responsibility or no responsibility at all. Finally, my point is that the tribal instinct routinely overrides the moral instinct. This requires additional mental contortions on the part of religion (reference to a fall that is completely incompatible with evolution, essentially resorting to a different argument) whereas it fits naturally with the atheist claim that morality evolved. Again, thanks for giving me the chance to respond/clarify.
Sticky20

Is there a difference between having no subjective experience and having one-millionth the subjective experience of a Tra'bilfin, which are advanced aliens with artificially augmented brains capable of a million times the processing of a current human?

Sticky90

Your usage of "actual" appears to be based on a false cognate.

Sticky20

Anyone who can travel through time can mount a pretty impressive apocalypse and announce whatever it is about the nature of reality he cares to. He might even be telling the truth.

Sticky90

We find bunnies in general cute, but not humans in general -- so it makes sense that a baby bunny would be cuter than a baby human. It combines babyness and bunnyness, as compared to a human baby who only has babyness. We care about the human baby more than the bunny baby because we value humanness quite apart from cuteness.

-2Jack
This just rephrases the question as "why are bunnies cute?"
Sticky10

I'm sure you could contrive a way to kill someone with a bunny.

1wnoise
Contrived ways for bunnies to kill themselves: http://www.jimmyr.com/blog/Bunny_Suicide_Comic_Pics_226_2007.php
1prase
Certainly. I can imagine several contrived ways how to use a bunny as a weapon, while I don't know how to kill someone with a soap bubble. Still, bunny is cuter.
Sticky00

It wouldn't. That's supposed to be a side effect.

Sticky10

Not photoshop. That's a pacifier with plastic buckteeth on the outside. It's supposed to be funny.

Sticky30

I'm guessing it's because cute rabbits get eaten less than non-cute rabbits, thus exerting selection pressure in favor of cuteness, which presumably is the same in all... something. Mammals?

Sounds a little strained to me, though.

6orthonormal
The point is that cute is almost certainly a 2-place word.
1Jack
Why would how humans feel towards rabbits effect how likely they are to be eaten by their rabbit parents?
Sticky10

Although I don't have any references handy, I've seen people argue that Kyoto-like changes in our lifestyles are necessary on ethical grounds apart from global warming. More often they'll simply dismiss any sort of technological solution as a "quick fix" or even as the thing that caused the problem in the first place.

There are quite a few people who would like to abdicate control over the physical world.

2milindsmart
What do you mean by "abdicate control over the physical world"? I fit the profile described here quite well. Feel free to ask (I know I'm 6 years late, but that's the point of internet forums).
0taw
People argue most ridiculous things. If they want to "abdicate control over the physical world" they can simply kill themselves - that's the only way.
Sticky170

The study described in the link only exposed the subject to a single article. The effect might be different for different amounts of exposure.

In my own experience this seems to be the case. When I briefly read politically opposing blogs I find them so obviously stupid that I'm amazed anyone could take the other side seriously, but when I spend a long while doing it I find my views moderating and sometimes even crossing over despite not being convinced by any of their actual arguments, and begin to be embarrassed by figures I normally admire even though mos... (read more)

Sticky00

Well, yes. That's textualism: the decision was made and it's written down right here.

A Council of Elders who make the decision for us is something else altogether.

Sticky-10

However fundamental they are, they're still subject to some kind of decision-making. There's no way around the difficulty: whoever makes the decision has interests, including an interest in expanding his/their own power. If the decision is too fundamental to be made by the people, then we're saying that precisely the most important matters should be decided by people with interests that may not be those of the people whose interests we're actually trying to promote, which is the general public. If they're that much better than us that this makes sense, it'... (read more)

-2Blueberry
One of the main ideas behind this type of Constitutional interpretation is that these decisions were already made by the people. That's what the Constitution is, and it's why states and Congress can't pass certain laws, because they conflict with what the people have decided in the Constitution.
Sticky20

The Constitution is not a complete system of law (it is, if I remember correctly, the shortest national constitution currently in force) -- so, even if we dismiss the amendment process as airily as you do, the strictest originalism doesn't amount to "live under the exact framework set up by a bunch of very flawed 18th century white dudes forever", because most of that framework was in the form of statutory law. It's not clear to me that the amendment process deserves to dismissed the way you did. You call the Founders "very flawed", whi... (read more)

0David_J_Balan
Part of the reason for having a Constitution in the first place is supposed to be that there are some things that are so fundamental that they ought not be subjected to ordinary democratic decision-making. If you don't buy that premise, then we don't need a Constitution at all (or at least a Bill of Rights). If you do buy that premise, then the question becomes whether and when that set of things that is above the ordinary law ought to change over time. One defensible position is that it ought never to change unless the change can make it through the very difficult amendment process. But the way that position is usually advanced is by incorrectly claiming that the only alternative to it is judicial tyranny and then daring your opponent to come out on the side of the tyrants, and that is not defensible. And that was the main point of the post. The "Wise Elders" point is merely that if you take a position other than the "no change except for amendments" one and so allow for some additional (though still limited!) changes over time, then the question becomes who should have the power to make those changes. Presumably they should be people who are in some sense above the political fray, because by assumption we are talking about things that should not be left to ordinary politics. And I can see no reason why the people who are given that power ought to be primarily legal experts.
Sticky30

Most people prefer milder drugs over harder ones, even though harder drugs provide more pleasure.

1quanticle
I think that oversimplifies the situation. Drugs have a wide range of effects, some of which are pleasurable, others which are not. While "harder" drugs appear to give more pleasure while their effects are in place, their withdrawal symptoms are also that much more painful (e.g. compare withdrawal symptoms from cocaine with withdrawal symptoms from caffeine).
Sticky10

If whoever controls the simulation knows that Tyrrell/me/komponisto/Eliezer/etc. are reasonably reasonable, there's little to be gained by modeling all the evidences that might persuade me. Just include the total lack of physical evidence tying the accused to the room where the murder happened, and I'm all yours. I'm sure I care more than I might have otherwise because she's pretty, and obviously (obviously to me, anyway) completely harmless and well-meaning, even now. Whereas, if we were talking about a gang member who's probably guilty of other horrible ... (read more)

Sticky10

What possible world would that be? If it should turn out that the Italian government is engaged in a vast experiment to see how many people it can convince of a true thing using only very inadequate evidence (and therefore falsified the evidence so as to destroy any reasonable case it had), we could, in principle, discover that. If the simulation simply deleted all of her hair, fiber, fingerprint, and DNA evidence left behind by the salacious ritual sex murder, then I can think of two objections. First, something like Tyrrell McAllister's second-order simu... (read more)

Sticky10

Perhaps it's being downvoted because of my strange speculation that the stars are unreal -- but it seems to me that if this is a simulation with such a narrow purpose as fooling komponisto/me/us/somebody about the Knox case is would be more thrifty to only simulate some narrow portion of the world, which need not include Knox herself. Even then, I think, it would make sense to say that my beliefs are about Knox as she is inside the simulation, not some other Knox I cannot have any knowledge of, even in principle.

3Zack_M_Davis
I downvoted the great-grandparent because it ignores the least convenient possible world where the simulators are implementing the entire Earth in detail such that the simulated Amanda Knox is a person, is guilty of the murder, and yet circumstances are such that she seems innocent given your state of knowledge. You're right that implementing the entire Earth is more expensive then just deluding you personally, but that's irrelevant to Eliezer's nitpick, which was only that 1/(3^^^3) really is just that small and yet nonzero.
Sticky40

But surely any statement one could make about Amanda Knox is only about the Amanda Knox in this world, whether she's a fully simulated human or something less. Perhaps only the places I actually go are fully simulated, and everywhere else is only simulated in its effects on the places I go, so that the light from distant stars are supplied without bothering to run their internal processes; in that case, the innocent Amanda Knox only exists insofar as the effects that an innocent Amanda Knox would have on my part of the world are implemented. Even so, my be... (read more)

5Tyrrell_McAllister
I'm not sure why this is being downvoted so much (to –3 when I saw it). It's a good point. If I'm in a simulation, and the "base reality" is sufficiently different from how things appear to me in the simulation, it stops making sense to say that I'm fooled into attributing false predicates to things in the base reality. I'm so cut off from the base reality that few of my beliefs can be said to be about it at all. It makes more sense to say that I have true beliefs about the things in the simulation. I just have one important false belief about them—namely, that they're not simulated. But that doesn't mean that my other beliefs about them are wrong. The situation is similar to that of the proverbial man who thinks that penguins are blind borrowing mammals who live in the Namib Desert. Such beliefs aren't really about penguins at all. More probably, the man has true beliefs about some variety of golden mole. He just has one important false belief about them—namely, that they're called "penguins".