All of Strawperson's Comments + Replies

As for plausible deniability, I suspect that it's not always a question of wanting to maintain it vis-a-vis your conversation partner, but vis-a-vis a real or imagined third party/society/Big Other:

e.g. I may want to signal clearly to the customs officer that I'm willing to bribe him, but maintain plausible deniability in case his superiors are listening in, so as not to get in trouble, or I may want to signal clearly to the girl at the bar that I'm flirting, but if rejected I want to be able to tell my friends that I was just complementing her shirt and not really interested (or be able to retrospectively construct such a story in my own mind), so as to preserve ego, etc.

2Dweomite
I came to a similar conclusion when thinking about the phenomenon of "technically true" deceptions. Most people seem to have a strong instinct to say only technically-true things, even when they are deliberately deceiving someone (and even when this restriction significantly reduces their chances of success).  Yet studies find that the victims of a deception don't much care whether the deceiver was being technically truthful.  So why the strong instinct to do this costly thing, if the interlocutor doesn't care? I currently suspect the main evolutionary reason is that a clear and direct lie makes it easier for the victim to trash your reputation with third parties.  "They said X; the truth was not-X; they're a liar." If you only deceive by implication, then the deception depends on a lot of context that's difficult for the victim to convey to third parties.  The act of making the accusation becomes more costly, because more stuff needs to be communicated.  Third parties may question whether the deception was intentional.  It becomes harder to create common knowledge of guilt:  Even if one listener is convinced, they may doubt whether other listeners would be convinced. Thus, though the victim is no less angry, the counter-attack is blunted.

The overcoming bias link in footnote 3 is broken, here's a working version:

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/06/against_free_th.html

I think both claims are true but on different time scales: (1) yes, the information and discourse readily available to the median internet user is less free and diverse today than it was a decade or two ago, but also, (2) this information and discourse is still more free and diverse than what the vast majority of people would encounter anywhere in the media pre-internet.

There are discussions to be had about which of these trends are more important, for "society in general", or in more specific context, or how things will play out in the future, but I find it very hard to believe that these facts are not both true.

3crl826
This makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

Not saying I endorse these fully, certainly not to the extent of them being the "whole plot" and making other considerations irrelevant, but I think they both contain enough of a kernel of truth to be worth mentioning:


1) While not quite an existential threat, climate change seems posed to cause death and suffering on a considerable, perhaps unprecedented, scale within this century, and will likely also act as a "badness multiplier", making pre-existing issues like disease, political instability and international conflicts worse. Absent technological advanc... (read more)

Thanks! I appreciate the feedback, and I'm glad to hear my thoughts were in the right direction and helpful to others.

As far as I understand, at level 3 ostensibly factual statements are instrumentalized in the service of ideological concerns (ideology is the deciding agent), whereas at level 4 ideology itself becomes a malleable object that is instrumentalized in the service of the pursuit of power (in the limit case, Moloch is the deciding agent). At level 3, what matters is that your side is winning, at level 4, what matters is that you're on the winning side.

Level 1: "There's a lion across the river." = There's a lion across the river.
Level 2:... (read more)

At level 3, what matters is that your side is winning, at level 4, what matters is that you're on the winning side.


What a fantastic distinction, thank you.

I've talked about simulacra levels with Ben a ton and this comment is the single most helpful thing in understanding them or explaining to others.

2Matt Goldenberg
Yeah that helps a lot.