Well, the motte is "I'm very epistemically humble", and the bailey is "that's why I'm always right".
If rationalists think they're right n% of the time and they're not, then that's condemnable in its own right, regardless of whether there's a motte-and-bailey involved.
If rationalists think they're right n% of the time and they are right n% of the time, but you aren't allowed to be honest about that kind of thing while also being humble, the so much the worse for humility. There are good forms of humility, but the form of 'humility' that's about lying or deceiving yourself about your competence level is straightforwardly bad.
Regardless, I don't think there...
No, not really? I generally ignore anything Scott writes which could be described as 'agreeing with Yud' -- it's his other work I find valuable, work I wouldn't expect Yud to write in any style.
I think there's a tendency to assume the rationalist community has all the answers (e.g. The Correct Contrarian Cluster), which seems (a) wrong to me on the object-level, but also (b) at odds with a lot of other rationalist ideas.
If you point this out, you might hear someone say they're "only an aspiring rationalist", or "that's in the sequences", or "rationalists already believe that". Which can seem like a Motte and Bailey, if it doesn't actually dent their self-confidence at all.
I'd like to know that too! I've had some fairly moving meditative experiences, but still find it oddly aversive to do; strength training feels easier, just because my reward system seems to understand it better.
I think joining a meditation class can help, as you get a social context and a schedule, but that does depend on having a good teacher nearby.
Maybe strength training? It made a big difference for me, and I wouldn't have expected that going in.
The key is to do it regularly, even if you don't do a lot; ten minutes every other day is fine, and you can do it at home with bodyweight or resistance cables.
(Meditation is also great, but I assume most LWers will have thought of that.)
As someone who gives data science interviews, my (personal, unreliable) opinion is that you should start preparing for interviews as soon as possible, and actually begin interviewing as soon as you feel ready.
I'm not saying you'll get in on the first try! You might, in which case you'll save a lot of effort doing anything else. If not, you'll get some sense of what the interview process is like, and where your strengths and weaknesses are.
If you can't get interviews at all, you may need to think about improving your resume. That could look like options 1, ... (read more)