All of Tem42's Comments + Replies

Answer by Tem4270

Spend more time dumpster diving (treasure hunting is fun!)

Tem4240

The standard appliances. For example, most people in developed countries have a dishwasher, which may or may not be worth the cost and room used. Most people probably would want a refrigerator, microwave, stove, and washer/drier if they thought about it.... but most people probably haven't thought about it. I personally do not have a dishwasher, microwave, or dryer because they are not worth the room they take up. I know some people who would do just fine with a chest freezer but no refrigerator, and/or with a microwave but no stove; I lived for a yea... (read more)

Tem4230

"The ways we use the toilet" is particularly relevant right now, with many countries seeing an increase in toilet paper shortages while maintaining the standard level of bidet shortages. If more people knew how to use a bodna/lota, people would be a lot less stressed now.

Tem4240

Very interested, but not willing to move more than 2-3 hours away; am nowhere near CA.

Tem4200

If it is severe enough that you are posting here about it making you feel bad, it is worth trying to replace it with a mental habit that works equally well to prevent future errors but feels better.

It is good to gain control over your mental habits in general, and this sounds like a good place to start.

If those statements appear true to you, no other analysis of this behavior is likely necessary.

Tem4210

It is interesting to note that if we quietly pass away and 50 million years later intelligent lungfish build up a civilization, they would presumably have good evidence that we were here, and would have good reason to assume that civilizations arise about once every 50 million years on average. Our effect on the Earth has probably been great enough that they will not have significant evidence from previous periods to contradict this assumption. In the case of large scale planetary civilizations, only the first one is likely to be in a position to reliably ... (read more)

Tem4200

If we are the only civilisation to exist in the history of the Earth, then we will probably become extinct not in mild way, but rather in a way which will prevent any other civilisation from appearing. There is higher probability of future (man-made) catastrophes which will not only end human civilisation, but also prevent any existence of any other civilisations on Earth.

I don't believe that this follows. It is surprising that we are apparently the only civilization to so far appear on Earth, but if we accept that we are, we should not assume that we h... (read more)

0mirefek
I agree with you, I think that I have the same problem with the article. Probability theory can not be used in such a way. Every planet with some civilizations have a first one. People of the first civilization always wonder why they are first. It does not mean anything for the future. Especially, it does not imply whether there will be other civilizations afterward.
Tem4200

A simple justification of a slightly less extreme position is easy enough: there were many sane people who did not predict the value of the internet, indicating that being sane and smart are not sufficient to predict such things.

There are plenty of quotes from people who were supposed to be experts (or at least well-educated) saything that heavier than air flight was impossible, computers would always be room-sized monstrosities of limited use, etc. I assume that this quote is pretty much the same idea (that future technology is unpredictable), but using ... (read more)

2philh
"Being sane and smart are not sufficient" is very different from "being insane is necessary". Compare: "they didn't think heavier-than-air flight was possible - because they weren't fucking insane".
Tem4200

May not be as effective as you hope. I experience this and find it vaguely annoying. The only people who have a reason to talk/post about it are the people who enjoy it, but that doesn't mean that they are in the majority.

Tem4200

I am an introvert and this effect is strong for me. But the best way to see if it works for you is to try it.

Tem4200

After 6 years one could then live fairly well in a relatively poor country on 15k.

Additionally, there are ways to get people to pay for your living costs in very poor countries. If you live in the US and are looking for a fun but not too easy early retirement, spending two years in the Peace Corps is not a bad way to go -- if you do want to spend a few extra thousand on living expenses it will go a lot further than it would in America, and if you just want to let your retirement funds gather a few years of additional interest you can do that. The PC does take married couples and loves people with college degrees and work experience. No kids, though.

Tem4200

I have found that I wake much more effectively when the alarm is very quiet; rather than waking suddenly and having my brain rebel, I wake over the course of 30 second to 2 minutes. This works much better than it has any reason to.

The downside is that a very quiet alarm is easy to miss, and if there is environmental noise at the same time as the alarm goes off (from the air coming on to trash pickup), it's much too easy to sleep through. The solution that worked best for me was to run a white noise generator (actually an air filter) all night; this raised... (read more)

Tem4200

I'm just starting arc 9, and am ready to give up. It's fun enough, but there doesn't seem to be any rationality here. I would buy an argument that the author is rationalist, but not any of the characters so far. (The backstory does suggest there the characters have done research and thought deep thoughts, be we see none of that.)

If it suddenly improves please let me know -- I've heard enough good things from enough people that I kept going this far, and it'd be a pity to quit just before things get interesting. But I'm almost a third of the way through, and still nothing :-/

3Furcas
If you don't like it now, you never will.
Tem4220

Yes... but this is not an issue of GMO. This is an issue of additives. You should require information that is clearly relevant to health regardless of GMO status. GMOing is a way of adding nutrients, but we would want additives labeled regardless of how they are added.

Or, to put it another way, this is a case where the GMO change is something that should be labeled, because there is a possible effect on health. But the factor under consideration isn't that it is GMO, it is that it there is an possible effect on health.

0ChristianKl
No, we don't want to require everybody who sells an orange to pay for lab tests that determine for every vitamin how much is contained. Making such a requirement would be a death sentence for farmers markets. A customers has certain expecations about what an natural orange happens to be. It's a class of objects that shares basic traits. GMO allows giving the orange traits that oranges generally aren't expected to have. Any GMO interventions adds new molecules. If you follow that framework, if you add genes that produce 3 new proteins, put those three proteins on the label.
Tem4250

Point #2 is a big important point. The media does not select relevant issues, they chose issues that play well to the public. Sometimes these overlap, but often they do not. GMO is a good example, because it is reported as monolithically important, but each genetic modification has to be considered individually; considering GMOs as a unified group is not very useful. Likewise, if you are interested in health and nutrition, you should also look for vegetables that are grown to be nutritious, which includes many GMO but not others: many plants are modified t... (read more)

Tem4200

Do you believe that people shouldn't know whether or not their rice has added Vitamin A? I think it's very worthwhile for people to know about it.

You are jumping topic. GMO risk is different from GMO labeling. However, it is true that labeling nutrition information is good, regardless of GMO status, and that GMO may have more variation in nutritional content (positive and negative) than non-GMO.

0ChristianKl
No, there are practical healths risks that come from food containing substances that I don't expect. I might get too much of a certain vitamin if I don't know that it's added to my food.
Tem4200

Let's assume that everyone has a fixed budget of attention and empathy.

This is a bad assumption. I could spend more time empathizing than I do -- for example, when I chose to read a nonfiction book, I am likely to emphasize less than when I read a fictional tear-jerker. Moreover, the media spends a lot of time trying to increase your attention and empathy budget, getting you very engaged (attentive and empathetic) to their characters, whether these be fictional or political personages or whatever. Anytime that you stay up late watching Football (rathe... (read more)

Tem4200

Slightly of topic, but relevant. Nothing in this nor any of the comments mentions what percent of your "happiness level" might be expected to come from a form of spending money. Presumably, some significant percentage of your happiness comes from things that do not directly involve spending money.

You cannot have a true idea of how much happiness money can buy if you do not adjust (downward) the value of money-bought-happiness based on the fact that it will account for only a portion of your happiness pie chart. Most of us do this to some extent, ... (read more)

Tem4210

Assuming that you are engaged in conversation/argument/debate with a specific target, perhaps the best way to edit out spurious strawmen is to mentally append "except in this case...." to any objection.

Thus:

Them: "It's important to be yourself."

You: "Except in this case, because John is a psychopath."

(Or, You: "Except in this case, because John is a fine, upstanding young guy... oh... nevermind.")

Not only should this eliminate most straw men, it should help keep the discussion on track.

Tem4200

Surely scammers will be more motivated to find good signals, and will have more opportunity to experiment with what works and what does not. Someone effectively signaling that they are a non-scam should be a hallmark of a scam.... which is why smart people like us need a long thread like this to explain to us how the scam works.

Tem4200

From the rhetorical side, you can sometimes gain an edge by starting with a leading question or with stating a problem. "I recently found myself in the unusual position of having some money to spare; so I asked myself, where can this money do the most good?"

Your audience may have any number of answers, but you've started by framing the matter in a favorable way (not "can I spare the money", but "when I have money to spare", and not "talking about economics" but "talking about morality"). This has the added ... (read more)

Tem4210

I cook today because my mother taught us to cook as kids. Obviously, cooking with a 5 year old is a bit of a burden, but as kids get older they are more helpful, and then you get extra, productive, and positive family time. And then later, older kids can often be convinced to cook the entire meal on their own if they get to choose the menu.

Barely relevant: neither I nor anyone I know instagrams their food. This may be a cultural artifact of your local population. Or of my local population.

Tem4200

Since you didn't spell it out this aspect of it: one aspect of this would be to invest in better insurance policies.

Tem4200

Additional note: give yourself opportunity to make sure that "high quality" is actually "high utility"; I have failed to sleep well on some very expensive mattresses. Paying extra to buy from a company with a good return policy or trial periods is often worth it.

Tem4200

Another possible work-around; I found that my radio alarm became much more tolerable, and that I woke more gradually, once I started sleeping with a white noise generator (actually an air purifier). This was less intrusive and more effective than simply waking to a very quiet alarm.

Tem4200

In the context of communication categories (a, b, and others) it may be useful particularly to view conversations as persona building (as above), because there is a subset of people who do not tell stories about what they have done, but tell you about what they are doing -- or simply do them. The person who shows up with Google Cardboard or TARDIS nail polish is signaling strongly without telling any stories. Depending on your goals, this may be a more effective way of persona building than learning to tell stories.

On the other hand, if you want to improv... (read more)

Tem4200

The relative advantage of LessWrong is that it is free, and contains many smart people with variable knowledge bases. There is no reason to believe that it will always (or often) be better than your doctor, but there very little cost to asking and the potential gain outweighs the minimal cost.

1ChristianKl
Scott Alexander wrote a long post about how his clinic fails to stock Melatonin because there's no drug reps encouraging them to stock any Melatonin. If you ask most doctors for Vitamin D3 supplementation I don't think they give the correct answer of 2000+ UI per day taken in the morning. People on LW might be both better at reading studies and evaluating the statistics and have spend more time researching a particular issue than the average doctor.
Tem4200

Unfortunately, I think many of the people who come to LessWrong are in the position of having read about 50-75% of the content of the sequences through other sources, and may become frustrated by the lack of clear indication within the sequences as to what the next post actually includes.... it is very annoying to read through a couple of pages only to find that this section has just been a wordy setup to reviewing basic physics.

0Bryan-san
What % do you define as "many"? Those percentages of content already known sound very high to me in regards to the first 1/3rd of the Sequences. (I'm still working on the rest so can't comment there.) Also, they can use the Article Summaries to test out whether they've seen the concept before and then read the full article or not. I don't recommend just reading the summaries though. I think a person doing that would be doing a disservice to themselves because of the reasons supplied by Vaniver above.
Tem4210

Watch your baseline: you should not consider the benefits that you and your child might get vs. not having children, but rather, the benefits you and the child might get vs. the benefits that you and another child might get if you did not have a child but became involved in a mentor program (or other volunteer activity helping children).

It may be hard to determine the value you get through working with other people's children, but there are big two plus sides to doing so:

  1. you have a comparative advantage for a certain population of kids; those with ment

... (read more)
Tem4210

I am not a first responder, but if I had a pile of corpses and one of them had an organ donor tattoo, that corpse would definitely be flagged for special attention and quick transport to the morgue. I wouldn't count on it being legal for them to make an extra effort to ID one body before another just based on (suspected) organ donor status, but making it into the refrigerator a bit earlier is a benefit.

Tem4200

I had to give up on trying to find out if a tattoo can count as consent on its own -- I would guess that it would be iffy territory unless you had it notarized and witnessed.

It might still be worthwhile to have a tattoo; it does tell them that you have given consent, meaning that they will make an extra effort to look for consent (In the US this means a state database). This would only be relevant if you are found without your drivers license/ID. There are a number of fringe cases where you might be found dead and dying without easy access to your ID, but... (read more)

2ChristianKl
The core question isn't whether it can legally count as consent but whether the process that a medical team uses when it finds a dead body recognizes the tattoo.
Tem4210

It would be worth double-checking your local regulations, but tattoos do not generally restrict you from organ donation. You should make sure you get your tattoo from a licensed business, of course.

As far as legal status -- that is a good question. I would think that as long as you updated it at least as often as you update your driver's licence, it would remain a valid indicator of your intent. That might mean adding a date to the tattoo, and adding another one every few years. You might contact your local hospital and see what they would do if they had a fresh corpse with no ID but a organ donor tattoo...

4ChristianKl
Why? Doctors have procedures for how to deal with organ donations. That procedure means looking at driver's license and organ donor cards. There are huge legal risks for them being creative.
Tem4210

I wasn't arguing against the tattoo! It sounds like a good idea, and more likely to be seen than the card. (However, you should get the card and then plot the tattoo. A being on the local database and having your wishes known by your next-of-kin is your best bet to being effective in donating).

0[anonymous]
Yes, but I would rather suffer the small embarrassment of having the card with me on the beach than the pain of multiple tattoos, plus having to listen to my other-than-next-of-kin relatives' sighs and moans if they see the ones on appendages etc. (I have not had a single one yet, but I assume there is pain involved.)
Tem4210

I think that optimal design would include the red heart that is placed on driver licences (in most American states) and on NHS cards (in the UK), plus the words "Organ donor". You might also want to include your organ donor ID, but you might not... in the US this is (sometimes? usually?) your driver's licence number, which may not be something you need strangers to see when you are at the beach.

My understanding is that if you do not specify otherwise, it is assumed that they can take any organ they need, but if you wanted to clarify (or were wor... (read more)

0[anonymous]
Damn, I'd better just get a card then. Thank you!
Tem4200

My experience is that pay sites are geared most towards signaling professionalism and (moderate) wealth -- which is often shorthand for 'adult', and therefore useful. However, in my experience OKCupid has provided better signaling for intelligence and thoughtfulness, simply because it allows users to write commentary on any question you answer. Most users do not take advantage of this, but looking for 'explained answers' is one of the most useful metrics I have found on any dating site.

Tem4200

One possible interpretation of this is that you are more liberal when surrounded by people whose judgement you trust -- which is a sane and defensible position. You should give more trustworthy (and more rational) people more leeway in their behaviors.

0[anonymous]
I like how that sounds
Tem4210

Is that working under the assumption that normalizing is better for your health? I don't think that I would trust myself or my doctor to optimize supplements based simply on what I am low in.

For example, normal vit. D3 levels are often set by the healthy level for Caucasians, with the result that Asians with healthy, normal levels for their genotype are flagged as dangerously low. This is not something that you can assume that your doctor is aware of.

However, the tests would give you some starting points for research. Also, I suspect that most doctors are not likely to offer much more than a chem-20, which I think is pretty useful across populations (IANAD) -- but also is probably not what you are recommending.

0Lumifer
No. That's working under the assumption that more information is better than less information. I didn't say "listen to your doctor". I said "study them carefully". Ask for specific, comprehensive panels. Do not go in saying "You think I should maybe get some tests?" :-/
Tem4200

For many people who on their own homes it would actually be feasible to build or install a pit toilet. I do not know of anyone in America who has done so.

The cider-block idea sounds unstable... but I haven't tried it. However, it seems that it should be fairly easy to train your body to go just before you take a shower, assuming you take showers on a predictable schedule, thus solving the undressing inconvenience.

0[anonymous]
An anecdote: it was easy to train myself to go before I went on to yoga-like exercises (at home) which lasted more than an hour, although admittedly I was a teenager, one should have an instructor at hand at least in the beginning, one should shower after the exercises, and I did it 3-4 times a week. However, it also (seemed to) improve sleep quality.
1gwern
No, the cinder-blocks were very stable. That was not the issue. I also think it's a little unreasonable to schedule your defecations and showers for the convenience of your squatting toilet rather than the other way around. Bidets are a big improvement but I'm not convinced by squatting for people without problems.
Tem4200

This is why it is important for us to teach AIs to play games. We have a extensive tool set for practicing temporary rule-switching and goal-switching and we regularly practice counterfactual models with our children. It shouldn't be hard to do the same with an AI, if we just remember to do it.

Tem4200

Double-sided? How does that work?

1Bryan-san
You put the person's name on both sides of the badge (this is a flat badge on a lanyard) so that if it gets turned around it's still visible.
Tem4200

Another, much smaller, example.

Edit:typo.

0ChristianKl
I don't think that's an example of someone investing money into an asset. It's a bet on default rates not changing.
Tem4200

I don't think that anyone ever thought that paying the bank to hold your money was a theoretical impossibility -- paid checking accounts are not a new thing. What is supposed to be 'impossible' is for bank loans have a negative interest rate -- if the bank pays you to borrow money. Of course, even that was/is only 'impossible' with certain exceptions (specifically, deflation is bad for lenders; but they try to predict deflation, and try not to loan at a negative real rate).

0ChristianKl
I don't think that the article says something about problems that come with scale. It rather suggests that the first attempts were lucky. There are also ethical issues with the business model of buying up debt and then hiring ex-convicts to collect that debt.
Tem4200

...using a definition that isn't used by the target...

I suspect you may be overestimating young childrens' critical thinking abilities. If daddy say X is "powerful medicine", then "powerful medicine" is defined as X.

Tem4240

Rationality takes extra time and effort, and most people can get by without it. It is easier to go with the flow -- easier on your brain, easier on your social life, and easier on your pocketbook. And worse, even if you decide you like rationality, you can't just tune into the rationality hour on TV and do what they say -- you actually have to come up with your own rationality! It's way harder than politics, religion, or even exercise.

Tem42-20

I think it demonstrates something stronger -- we have, as humans, already developed a game (Chicken) with very meaningful outcomes in which lower intelligence is beneficial, despite the fact that the humans in questions were not intending to select for low IQ and would not have seen a rock as a valid player.

If we are talking about Chicken we do not have to assume a rock (which has no preference), but simply a human with bad judgement, or slow reactions, or who is panicking.

So,

I'm not sure what that proves.

Well, 'proof' aside, it demonstrates that:

stupidity can be an advantage

Among other apparently maladaptive responses.

Tem42-40

It is just that until you explain HOW you organize this without ownership, it is impossible to determine how such a system without ownership compares to the current one.

To a a close approximation, the new system looks just like the old system, just without the paychecks. Assuming that workers know their value (big assumption), then the question becomes "to create the most Xyriking, should I do my job or change to a job producing Xyrikes?"

Caviar producers should change jobs; grain producers should not; salt producers should determine what exac... (read more)

Tem4200

This is true -- but the example as given assumes no centrally managed economy. It's just a case of everyone independently deciding to maximize paperclips.

We have moved away from a complex allocation system to a simple one. It doesn't matter if you use money -- the relevant aspect of the situation is cooperation.

Of course, I may be reading to much into "everyone decides". But I'm assuming if they all 'decide' to do something because they have a gun to their head, then the downside is obvious.

Tem4200

Oh. I had assumed that "not planning for catering" fell in the "odd cases" category, but maybe I overestimate humans.

2mwengler
Its not that you overestimate humans but that you massively underestimate that amount of thought, work, and organization that results in a store of fresh healthy abundant food available for your nutrition. That complex chain involving thousands and millions of people, some producing the oil to lubricate the gears of the tractor or the delivery truck, some paving the roads, some setting standards for fuel composition and performance so that some others can build motors to drive the pieces, while still others keep accurate records of who "owns" which pieces of land so there is no confusion about who gets to harvest the food months after it is planted. It involves a bunch more things, too. It is not that it is impossible to organize this without ownership. It is just that until you explain HOW you organize this without ownership, it is impossible to determine how such a system without ownership compares to the current one.
0Lumifer
It is interesting how you interpret "make sure we have enough food to not starve" as "planning for catering" X-/
Tem4240

I don't invent time travel for another 60 years. But I will get back to you in 2075.

On a more serious note, I wasn't wanting the deaths removed, just balanced.

2mwengler
Couldn't we get a precommitment from you to bring it back to 12/16/2015 once you have it?
1Elo
balanced now with notable births 100 years ago. :)
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