All of thefirechair's Comments + Replies

There's no proof that superintelligence is even possible. The idea of the updating AI that will rewrite itself to godlike intelligence isn't supported.

There is just so much hand-wavey magical thinking going on in regard to the supposed superintelligence AI takeover.

The fact is that manufacturing networks are damn fragile. Power networks too. Some bad AI is still limited by these physical things. Oh, it's going to start making its own drones? Cool, so it is running thirty mines, and various shops, plus refining the oil and all the rest of the network's requ... (read more)

This place uses upvote/downvote mechanics, and authors of posts can ban commentors from writing there... which man, if you want to promote groupthink and all kinds of ingroup hidden rules and outgroup forbidden ideas, that's how you'd do it. 

You can see it at work - when a post is upvoted is it because it's well-written/useful or because it's saying the groupthink? When a post is downvoted is it because it contains forbidden ideas? 

When you talk about making a new faction - that is what this place is. And naming it Rationalists says something ver... (read more)

I agree. When you look up criticism of LessWrong you find plenty of very clear, pointed, and largely correct criticisms. 

I used time-travel as my example because I didn't want to upset people but really any in-group/out-group forum holding some wild ideas would have sufficed. This isn't at Flat Earther levels yet but it's easy to see the similarities. 

There's the unspoken things you must not say otherwise you'll be pummeled, ignored or fought. Blatantly obvious vast holes are routinely ignored. A downvote mechanism works to push comments down.&nb... (read more)

You have no atomic level control over that. You can't grow a cell at will or kill one or release a hormone. This is what I'm referring to. No being that exists has this level of control. We all operate far above the physical reality of our bodies.

But we suggest an AI will have atomic control. Or that code control is the same as control.

Total control would be you sitting there directing cells to grow or die or change at will.

No AI will be there modifying the circuitry it runs on down at the atomic level.

I'd suggest there may be an upper bound to intelligence because intelligence is bound by time and any AI lives in time like us. They can't gather information from the environment any faster. They cannot automatically gather all the right information. They cannot know what they do not know.

The system of information, brain propagation, cellular change runs at a certain speed for us. We cannot know if it is even possible to run faster.

One of the magical thinking criticisms I have of AI is that it suddenly is virtually omniscient. Is that AI observing mold cul... (read more)

The assumption there is that the faste the hardware underneath, the faster the sentience running on it will be. But this isn't supported by evidence. We haven't produced a sentient AI to know whether this is true or not.

For all we know, there may be a upper limit to "thinking" based on neural propagation of information. To understand and integrate a concept requires change and that change may move slowly across the mind and underlying hardware.

Humans have sleep for example to help us learn and retain information.

As for self modification - we don't have ato... (read more)

No being has cellular level control. Can't direct brain cells to grow or hormones to release etc. This is what I mean by it does not exist in nature. There is no self modification that is being propagated that AI will have.

Teleportation doesn't exist so we shouldn't make arguments where teleportation is part of it.

You have no control down on the cellular level over your body. No deliberate conscious control. No being does. This is what I mean by does not exist in nature. Like teleportation.

We do have examples of these things in nature, in degrees. Like flowers turning to the sun because they contain light-sensing cells. Thus, it exists in nature and we eventually replicate it.

Steam engines is just energy transfer and use, and that exists. So does flying fast. 

Something not in nature (as far as we can tell) is teleportation. Living inside a star. 

I don't mean specific narrow examples in nature. I mean the broader idea. 

So I can see intelligence evolving over enormous time-frames, and learning exists, so I do concur we can speed up learning and replicate it... but the underlying idea of a being modifying itself? Nowhere in nature. No examples anywhere on any level. 

I read a study a few years back that found some women still had iron deficiency symptoms even as high as 60 on the ferritin test. Also was pointed out the "normal" scale for iron was devised the way most things were in the past - on healthy college age white males.

What is problematic about the ferritin test is it is treated like a yes/no rather than a continuum. Get 14 on the rest that where 10 is anemia and could be told it's not iron deficiency.

The best advice is likely "if you have the symptoms of iron deficiency, treat it".

It's definitely one of the mo... (read more)

How is that a flaw? 

The harms of it are well known and established. You can look them up.

It's beside the point however. Replace it with whatever cause you want - spreading democracy, ending the war on drugs, ending homelessness, making more efficient electrical devices. 

The argument is the path to the end is convoluted, not clear ahead of time. Although we can have guideposts and learn from history, the idea that today you can "optmize" on an unsolved problem can be faintly ridiculous. 

James Clear has zero idea of what is good or great and t... (read more)

Now let’s factor in two additional facts:

-- are these facts though?

I see this a bit on here, a kind of rapid fire and then and then, and this is a fact therefore... when perhaps slowing down and stopping on some of those points to break the cognitive cage being assembled is the move.

Such as opportunity cost. We can make clear examples of this, invest in stock A means you can't invest in stock B.

But in the world, there are plenty of examples that are not OR gates but AND gates. It's not an opportunity cost to choose between providing clean needles to homele... (read more)

Animals can suffer - duty to prevent animal suffering - stop that lion hunting that gazelle - lion suffering increase - work out how to feed lions - conclude predators and prey exist - conclude humans are just very smart predators - eating meat ok.

I'd contend that some positions are taken very seriously but what the next perceived logical step for people is varies. An animal activist might be pro the world becoming vegetarian. A non-animal activist is pro strong animal welfare laws to prevent needless suffering.

Trying to resolve "humans are just smart pred... (read more)

It does open up the possibility of other people writing any comic that has existed. More Snoopy. More Calvin & Hobbes. 

1st panel: John cooking lasagna, garfield watching. 

2nd panel: garfield tangling in john's legs, lasagna going flying

3rd panel garfield eating lasagna from the floor, happy.

No words, copy style, short comic. 

Wow, this is going to explode picture books and book covers.

Hiring an illustrator for a picture book costs a lot, as it should given it's bespoke art.

Now publishers will have an editor type in page descriptions, curate the best and off they go. I can easily imagine a model improvement to remember the boy drawn or steampunk bear etc.

Book cover designers are in trouble too. A wizard with lighting in hands while mountain explodes behind him - this can generate multiple options.

It's going to get really wild when A/B split testing is involved. As you mention re... (read more)

Allow it to display info on a screen. Set up a simple poleroid camera that takes a phone every X seconds.

Ask the question, take physical photos of the screen remotely.

View the photos.

Large transmission of information in analog format.