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All of 22tom's Comments + Replies

AI Fire Alarm Scenarios
22tom30

I stumbled upon this post <3 years later and - wow, seems like we're very close to some fire alarms!

Expert Opinion

The world gradually notices that each of these new leaders express at least as much concern about the risks of AI as prior researchers, and that they increasingly agree that AI will pass human levels sometime in the 2030s.

Would Hinton and Bengio tick this box?

By the late 2020s, there's a clear enough consensus among the recognized AI experts that no major news organization is willing to deny that AI represents an important source of near-ter

... (read more)
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A Narrow Path: a plan to deal with AI extinction risk
22tom7-19

TL;DR 

From a skim, there are many claims here which I agree / sympathise with. 

That said, I also want to make sure this piece stands up to the epistemic "sniff" test. The gist of the piece seems to operate around Simulacrum Levels 2 / 3  ["Choose what to say based on what your statement will cause other people to do or believe"  / "Say things that signal membership to your ingroup."].[1] 

From a quick epistemic spot check of just the intro, I'd say that half the claims are accurate on SL1. My guess is this is pretty standard for a l... (read more)

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5Zac Hatfield-Dodds
The byline of that piece is "Avital Balwit lives in San Francisco and works as Chief of Staff to the CEO at Anthropic. This piece was written entirely in her personal capacity and does not reflect the views of Anthropic." I do not think this is an appropriate citation for the claim. In any case, They publicly state that it is not a matter of “if” such artificial superintelligence might exist, but “when” simply seems to be untrue; both cited sources are peppered with phrases like 'possibility', 'I expect', 'could arrive', and so on.
6Mateusz Bagiński
I too have reservations about points 1 and 3 but not providing sufficient references or justifications doesn't imply they're not on SL1.
The Worst Form Of Government (Except For Everything Else We've Tried)
22tom30

I think this is similar to the governance arrangement in Northern Ireland that ended the troubles (for the most part). Both sides need to share power in order to govern. If one side is perceived to go too far then the other can resign from government, effectively vetoing the other.

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Consider Joining the UK Foundation Model Taskforce
22tom160

Also, for those eligible to work in the UK, consider applying to work in the taskforce here (Deadline tomorrow!)

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