All of time.less.ness's Comments + Replies

I note your typical disdain for the anti-vaxxers. You probably have your reasons. I struggle to discount them as quickly. If I were a betting man, I would bet there are some pretty bright and well-reasoned ones in the mix. I don't think I can predict the future well, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised to find out in 10 years the anti-vaxxers were right, for the right reasons, and that we should have given their reservations far more careful consideration[0].

If you care about being fair to that class of people[1], you need to put more thought into the pos... (read more)

5SarahNibs
Do you have a tldr on why we might think anti-vaxxers were right for the right reasons? Seems like the default positions are "vaccines have obviously worked in the past and we're pretty sure they're gonna work in very similar ways today", and I haven't seen anything that changes my opinion much about either of those defaults.
6Alexey Lapitsky
Strongly upvoted as well, and I agree with Vanilla_cabs - I don't think it helps classifying everybody concerned about covid vaccines as anti-vaxers. Maybe we need a better term. Here is an analysis taking into account recovered people with natural immunity in the US: https://youtu.be/vJy8jdunpFw?t=520   Personally, I'm wondering if antibody dependent enhancement could explain some weird patterns we are starting seeing now in highly-vaccinated places.

Decisions about covid policy have been mostly political, but vaccines weren't political before that. Consider smallpox. Smallpox was all over the world and apparently unbeatable. It was described in China in 340. George Washington and Abraham Lincoln got it, and if they died history could have gone way differently. https://rootsofprogress.org/smallpox-and-vaccines. It was just a thing that sometimes happened to people, and nothing could be done about it. Suddenly, as soon as vaccines were applied to a region. Smallpox was completely eliminated there.

A simi... (read more)

5Vanilla_cabs
FWIW, strongly upvoted, despite thinking that the term 'anti-vax' perpetuates a false dichitomy that poisons the well. I am French and the "incentive" OP talks about is blackmail by a president who just got disavowed in elections (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_r%C3%A9gionales_fran%C3%A7aises_de_2021#Synth%C3%A8se_des_r%C3%A9sultats LREM, the governing party, gets 0,52% of voter's votes on the first round). I've been writing a piece explaining the background of these "incentives" but since it's a political issue, I don't think it can find a place on LW (see the recent debate on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BY5f7iEzHtEDJLXS7/prediction-what-war-between-the-usa-and-china-would-look). One takeaway should already be obvious to anyone who's concerned with AI alignment or read Superintelligence: don't applaud when a growing potential tyrant does what you want.

"Disclaimer" - I have no relationship with Gurkenglas outside the ~2hr session we just went through. But I got the feeling I should tout his skills to the community, so I'm doing it. He did not solicit my comment.

This was fun. We didn't do maths so much, because I don't have a maths problem. I have several major problems. We identified some of them.

Gurkenglas has a pretty good handle on looking at completely foreign code, grokking some high-level problems (need to refactor) and some low-level problems (useless conditionals) and even backing off and not fix... (read more)