Depends on the direction/magnitude of the shift!
I'm currently feeling very uncertain about the relative costs and benefits of centralization in general. I used to be more into the idea of a national project that centralized domestic projects and thus reduced domestic racing dynamics (and arguably better aligned incentives), but now I'm nervous about the secrecy that would likely entail, and think it's less clear that a non-centralized situation inevitably leads to a decisive strategic advantage for the leading project. Which is to say, even under pretty op...
It's not super clear whether from a racing perspective having an equal number of nukes is bad. I think it's genuinely messy (and depends quite sensitively on how much actors are scared of losing vs. happy about winning vs. scared of racing).
Importantly though, once you have several thousand nukes the strategic returns to more nukes drop pretty close to zero, regardless of how many your opponents have, while if you get the scary model's weights and then don't use them to push capabilities even more, your opponent maybe gets a huge strategic advantage ...
Gotcha. A few disanalogies though -- the first two specifically relate to the model theft/shared access point, the latter is true even if you had verifiable API access:
In general, we should be wary of this sort of ‘make things worse in order to make things better.’ You are making all conversations of all sizes worse in order to override people’s decisions.
Glad to be included in the roundup, but two issues here.
First, it's not about overriding people's decisions; it's a collective action problem. When the room is silent and there's a single group of 8, I don't actually face a choice of a 2- or 3-person conversation; it doesn't exist! The music lowers the costs for people to split into smaller conversations, so the people ...
The "how do we know if this is the most powerful model" issue is one reason I'm excited by OpenMined, who I think are working on this among other features of external access tools
If probability of misalignment is low, probability of human+AI coups (including e.g. countries invading each other) is high, and/or there aren't huge offense-dominant advantages to being somewhat ahead, you probably want more AGI projects, not fewer. And if you need a ton of compute to go from an AI that can do 99% of AI R&D tasks to an AI that can cause global catastrophe, then model theft is less of a factor. But the thing I'm worried about re: model theft is a scenario like this, which doesn't seem that crazy:
[reposting from Twitter, lightly edited/reformatted] Sometimes I think the whole policy framework for reducing catastrophic risks from AI boils down to two core requirements -- transparency and security -- for models capable of dramatically accelerating R&D.
If you have a model that could lead to general capabilities much stronger than human-level within, say, 12 months, by significantly improving subsequent training runs, the public and scientific community have a right to know this exists and to see at least a redacted safety case; and external resear...
Seems cheap to get the info value, especially for quieter music? Can be expensive to set up a multi-room sound system, but it's probably most valuable in the room that is largest/most prone to large group formation, so maybe worth experimenting with a speaker playing some instrumental jazz or something. I do think the architecture does a fair bit of work already.
I'm confident enough in this take to write it as a PSA: playing music at medium-size-or-larger gatherings is a Chesterton's Fence situation.
It serves the very important function of reducing average conversation size: the louder the music, the more groups naturally split into smaller groups, as people on the far end develop a (usually unconscious) common knowledge that it's too much effort to keep participating in the big one and they can start a new conversation without being unduly disruptive.
If you've ever been at a party with no music where ...
As having gone to Lighthaven, does this still feel marginally worth it at Lighthaven where we mostly tried to make it architecturally difficult to have larger conversations? I can see the case for music here, but like, I do think music makes it harder to talk to people (especially on the louder end) and that does seem like a substantial cost to me.
I agree that that's the most important change and that there's reason to think people in Constellation/the Bay Area in general might systematically under-attend to policy developments, but I think the most likely explanation for the responses concentrating on other things is that I explicitly asked about technical developments that I missed because I wasn't in the Bay, and the respondents generally have the additional context that I work in policy and live in DC, so responses that centered policy change would have been off-target.
Kelsey Piper now reports: "I have seen the extremely restrictive off-boarding agreement that contains nondisclosure and non-disparagement provisions former OpenAI employees are subject to. It forbids them, for the rest of their lives, from criticizing their former employer. Even acknowledging that the NDA exists is a violation of it."
Quick reactions:
I think some of the AI safety policy community has over-indexed on the visual model of the "Overton Window" and under-indexed on alternatives like the "ratchet effect," "poisoning the well," "clown attacks," and other models where proposing radical changes can make you, your allies, and your ideas look unreasonable (edit to add: whereas successfully proposing minor changes achieves hard-to-reverse progress, making ideal policy look more reasonable).
I'm not familiar with a lot of systematic empirical evidence on either side, but it seems to me like the more...
Agree with lots of this– a few misc thoughts [hastily written]:
These are plausible concerns, but I don't think they match what I see as a longtime DC person.
We know that the legislative branch is less productive in the US than it has been in any modern period, and fewer bills get passed (many different metrics for this, but one is https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CONGRESS/PRODUCTIVITY/egpbabmkwvq/) . Those bills that do get passed tend to be bigger swings as a result -- either a) transformative legislation (e.g., Obamacare, Trump tax cuts and COVID super-relief, Biden Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS...
The "highly concentrated elite" issue seems like it makes it more, rather than less, surprising and noteworthy that a lack of structural checks and balances has resulted in a highly stable and (relatively) individual-rights-respecting set of policy outcomes. That is, it seems like there would thus be an especially strong case for various non-elite groups to have explicit veto power.
One other thought on Green in rationality: you mention the yin of scout mindset in the Deep Atheism post, and scout mindset and indeed correct Bayesianism involves a Green passivity and maybe the "respect for the Other" described here. While Blue is agnostic, in theory, between yin and yang -- whichever gives me more knowledge! -- Blue as evoked in Duncan's post and as I commonly think of it tends to lean yang: "truth-seeking," "diving down research rabbit holes," "running experiments," etc. A common failure mode of Blue-according-to-Blue is a yang that pr...
I think this post aims at an important and true thing and misses in a subtle and interesting but important way.
Namely: I don't think the important thing is that one faction gets a veto. I think it's that you just need limitations on what the government can do that ensure that it isn't too exploitative/extractive. One way of creating these kinds of limitations is creating lots of veto points and coming up with various ways to make sure that different factions hold the different veto points. But, as other commenters have noted, the UK government does not hav...
(An extra-heavy “personal capacity” disclaimer for the following opinions.) Yeah, I hear you that OP doesn’t have as much public writing about our thinking here as would be ideal for this purpose, though I think the increasingly adversarial environment we’re finding ourselves in limits how transparent we can be without undermining our partners’ work (as we’ve written about previously).
The set of comms/advocacy efforts that I’m personally excited about is definitely larger than the set of comms/advocacy efforts that I think OP should fund, si...
Just being "on board with AGI worry" is so far from sufficient to taking useful actions to reduce the risk that I think epistemics and judgment is more important, especially since we're likely to get lots of evidence (one way or another) about the timelines and risks posed by AI during the term of the next president.
He has also broadly indicated that he would be hostile to the nonpartisan federal bureaucracy, e.g. by designating way more of them as presidential appointees, allowing him personally to fire and replace them. I think creating new offices that are effectively set up to regulate AI looks much more challenging in a Trump (and to some extent DeSantis) presidency than the other candidates.
Thanks for these thoughts! I agree that advocacy and communications is an important part of the story here, and I'm glad for you to have added some detail on that with your comment. I’m also sympathetic to the claim that serious thought about “ambitious comms/advocacy” is especially neglected within the community, though I think it’s far from clear that the effort that went into the policy research that identified these solutions or work on the ground in Brussels should have been shifted at the margin to the kinds of public communications you mention.
I als...
I broadly share your prioritization of public policy over lab policy, but as I've learned more about liability, the more it seems like one or a few labs having solid RSPs/evals commitments/infosec practices/etc would significantly shift how courts make judgments about how much of this kind of work a "reasonable person" would do to mitigate the foreseeable risks. Legal and policy teams in labs will anticipate this and thus really push for compliance with whatever the perceived industry best practice is. (Getting good liability rulings or legislation would multiply this effect.)
"We should be devoting almost all of global production..." and "we must help them increase" are only the case if:
(And, you know, total utilitarianism and such.)
Just want to plug Josh Greene's great book Moral Tribes here (disclosure: he's my former boss). Moral Tribes basically makes the same argument in different/more words: we evolved moral instincts that usually serve us pretty well, and the tricky part is realizing when we're in a situation that requires us to pull out the heavy-duty philosophical machinery.
I think the main thing stopping the accelerationists and open source enthusiasts from protesting with 10x as many people is that, whether for good reasons or not, there is much more opposition to AI progress and proliferation than support among the general public. (Admittedly this is probably less true in the Bay Area, but I would be surprised if it was even close to parity there and very surprised if it were 10x.)
My response to both paragraphs is that the relevant counterfactual is "not looking into/talking about AI risks." I claim that there is at least as much social pressure from the community to take AI risk seriously and to talk about it as there is to reach a pessimistic conclusion, and that people are very unlikely to lose "all their current friends" by arriving at an "incorrect" conclusion if their current friends are already fine with the person not having any view at all on AI risks.
I think it's admirable to say things like "I don't want to [do the thing that this community holds as near-gospel as a good thing to do.]" I also think the community should take it seriously that anyone feels like they're punished for being intellectually honest, and in general I'm sad that it seems like your interactions with EAs/rats about AI have been unpleasant.
That said...I do want to push back on basically everything in this post and encourage you and others in this position to spend some time seeing if you agree or disagree with the AI stuff.
It seems to me like government-enforced standards are just another case of this tradeoff - they are quite a bit more useful, in the sense of carrying the force of law and applying to all players on a non-voluntary basis, and harder to implement, due to the attention of legislators being elsewhere, the likelihood that a good proposal gets turned into something bad during the legislative process, and the opportunity cost of the political capital.
First, congratulations - what a relief to get in (and pleasant update on how other selective processes will go, including the rest of college admissions)!
I lead HAIST and MAIA's governance/strategy programming and co-founded CBAI, which is both a source of conflict of interest and insider knowledge, and my take is that you should almost certainly apply to MIT. MIT is a much denser pool of technical talent, but MAIA is currently smaller and less well-organized than HAIST. Just by being an enthusiastic participant, you could help make it a more robust group,...
I don't think this is the right axis on which to evaluate posts. Posts that suggest donating more of your money to charities that save the most lives, causing less animal suffering via your purchases, and considering that AGI might soon end humanity are also "harmful to an average reader" in a similar sense: they inspire some guilt, discomfort, and uncertainty, possibly leading to changes that could easily reduce the reader's own hedonic welfare.
However -- hopefully, at least -- the "average reader" on LW/EAF is trying to believe true things and achieve go...
Quick note on 2: CBAI is pretty concerned about our winter ML bootcamp attracting bad-faith applicants and plan to use a combo of AGISF and references to filter pretty aggressively for alignment interest. Somewhat problematic in the medium term if people find out they can get free ML upskilling by successfully feigning interest in alignment, though...
Great write-up. Righteous Mind was the first in a series of books that really usefully transformed how I think about moral cognition (including Hidden Games, Moral Tribes, Secret of Our Success, Elephant in the Brain). I think its moral philosophy, however, is pretty bad. In a mostly positive (and less thorough) review I wrote a few years ago (that I don't 100% endorse today), I write:
...Though Haidt explicitly tries to avoid the naturalistic fallacy, one of the book’s most serious problems is its tendency to assume that people finding something disgusting im
Agreed, I think people should apply a pretty strong penalty when evaluating a potential donation that has or worsens these dynamics. There are some donation opportunities that still have the "major donors won't [fully] fund it" and "I'm advantaged to evaluate it as an AIS professional" without the "I'm personal friends with the recipient" weirdness, though -- e.g. alignment approaches or policy research/advocacy directions you find promising that Open Phil isn't currently funding that would be executed thousands of miles away.