Main worry I have: Cognitive ability is really unevenly distributed, and an idea from Robin Hanson about anything related to Economics that he thought about for 5 minutes, is probably going to be much more thought-out than a 5-hour research project from an average Econ undergraduate. Epistemically effort seems to indicate that time spent on a post is more important than other factors, though it actually doesn't rank very highly in my model of what makes a good post.
I'm pretty sure you just used this as an rhetoric tool, but by bayesian theory, isn't it impossible to construct a hypothesis which allocates a probability of zero to an event? But don't you say exactly that in your text?
even if the alternative hypothesis does not allow it at all
I mean allocating a probability of zero to an event implies that it doesn't matter what evidence is presented to you, the probability of that particular event will never become anything else than zero. And as it is impossible to disprove something in the same way it is impossib...
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