All of UtilonMaximizer's Comments + Replies

Now, I was wondering about how I could improve on with respect to their impressions socially, since I am doing well currently in managing them with respect to personal wellbeing.

Perhaps I'm misinterpreting you, but I read the above to be asking, "How can I improve at x even though improving at x won't increase my wellbeing?"

Actuarial tables give him a roughly 2% chance of dying before the election.

8Good_Burning_Plastic
Well, he's very likely substantially healthier than the average 69-year-old American man, so I'd be willing to bet at 1/50 odds that he will survive to the election.

Is there absolute utilitty maximisation in portfolio diversification or is that just a risk control mechanism?

It's purely for risk control, but most people are extremely loss averse and so do well to diversify.

Could I pick one random stock and put a whole lot of money in it? I suspect I may be commiting the law of large >numbers here (or the gambler's fallacy).

You could. It's a bet with positive expectation and a really risky one. But people do much dumber things with their money. Having said that, I'd recommend an index fund instead if you're plopping a whole lot of money in.

In digital markets with extremely quick liquidity like the stock exchange, Is investing based on macroeconomic factors and >megatrends foolhardy?

One shouldn't expect to systematically beat the market without privileged information. But even "trying to beat the market" (depending on what exactly that strategy entails) or doing what you describe is often better than what most people do in terms of actually growing their savings. Financial securities (especially stocks) have high enough long-run expected returns such that a "strategy&qu... (read more)

2[anonymous]
Is there absolute utilitty maximisation in portfolio diversification or is that just a risk control mechanism? Could I pick one random stock and put a whole lot of money in it? I suspect I may be commiting the law of large numbers here (or the gambler's fallacy).

The "preferences version" of consequentialism is also what I prefer. I've never understood the (unfortunately much more common) "cosmic objective utility function" consequentialism which, among other things, doesn't account for nearly enough of the variability in preferences among different types of brains.

Here, it goes without saying that each of these positions is wrong.

I am under the impression that many in this community are consequentialist and that all consequentialists are moral nihilists by default in that they don't believe in the existence of inherent moral truths (moral truths that don't necessarily affect utility functions).

4Darklight
Uh, I was under the impression that most consequentialists are moral universalists. They don't believe that morality can be simplified into absolute statements like "lying is always wrong", but do still believe in conditional moral universals such as "in this specific circumstance, lying is wrong for all subjects in the same circumstance". This is fundamentally different from moral relativism that argues that morality depends on the subject, or moral nihilism that says that there are no moral truths at all. Moral universalism still believes there are moral truths, but that they depend on the conditions of reality (in this case, that the consequences are good). Even then, most Utilitarian consequentialists believe in one absolute inherent moral truth, which is that "happiness is intrinsically good", or that "the utility function, should be maximized." Admittedly some consequentialists try to deny that they believe this and argue against moral realism, but that's mostly a matter of metaethical details.
2Gram_Stone
I find that the nihilism-relativism-universalism trichotomy, among other things, doesn't really divide things well. I would describe most LessWrong users as universalists that are not absolutists. If what is moral is what you value, and there is a fact of the matter as to what you value, then there is an objective morality, even if it is contingent rather than ontologically fundamental.

A college education is a terrible investment for the average person in today's economy. The money and (more importantly) the time spent would be much better utilized to obtain the same human capital and signaling power at a cheaper monetary cost and a faster rate than those at which universities are willing to provide.

4Illano
Depends a ton on where you go and what you major in. PayScale has a ranking of a ton of colleges based on their 20-year average incomes compared to 24 years of average income for people with a high-school degree. There probably are some special cases at the tails that would benefit more from not going to college, but for the average college-goer, it is still probably a halfway decent investment.
7Gunnar_Zarncke
How?