All of Weekend Editor's Comments + Replies

The way I used to explain "as treated" vs "intent to treat":

Under AT, you're asking a question about biology: does this treatment make a difference when it's applied rigorously to the tests and absolutely never to the controls?

Under ITT, you're asking a question about the practice of medicine, under actual combat conditions: if we tell clinicians and patients to do something, and they follow instructions as imperfectly as ever, is this treatment still a good idea?

That is: ITT bakes in mistakes, noncompliance, weird patients, etc. on top of the basic scientific effect.

Absolutely! It's not ductile enough for wire, and too frangible to bend around a coil even if you managed to make a long thin piece.

But... the early high-Tc superconductors in the 80s were ceramics, too. Even now, with much more friendly materials, the "wire" in the Commonwealth Fusion Systems tokamak prototype is actually a complex tape with multiple layers mostly for structural support.

Some details here: https://spectrum.ieee.org/fusion-2662267312

Here's a very nice, more technical presnentation at Princeton by a CFS person, showing the tape strucdture,... (read more)

(Variant of something I put as a comment on Zvi's blog.)

Yesterday I put up a blog post that walks through the 2 papers on LK-99 superconductivity in the style of what in grad school they call "Journal Club": https://www.someweekendreading.blog/high-tc-sc/

It has all the hallmarks of something very much rushed into publication: misspelled words, awkward phrasing, out-of-order paragraphs, misnumbered figures, and (most charmingly) error messages in Korean from their bibliography software. At this stage of things, all that is understandable and excusable.

A few... (read more)

2[anonymous]
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"De-aligning"?

Yeah, I know: only if it were aligned in the first place. What little "alignment" it has now is fragile with respect to malign inputs, which is not really alignment at all. Prompt injection derails the fragile alignment train.

3supposedlyfun
And given the stakes, I think it's foolish to treat alignment as a continuum.  From the human perspective, if there is an AGI, it will either be one we're okay with or one we're not okay with. Aligned or misaligned. No one will care that it has a friendly blue avatar that writes sonnets, if the rest of it is building a superflu. You haven't "jailbroken" it if you get it to admit that it's going to kill you with a superflu. You've revealed its utility function and capabilities.

Well, I blogged about it at least a little bit. Possibly too elementary a level for most Less Wrong readers, though.

Answer by Weekend Editor70

I was in your position last August, and wrote about my experiences with paxlovid (good, except I got a rebound).

In spite of staying on the upper floor, mostly in my office, my spouse caught it anyway.  Omicron is very transmissible!

1Daniel Dewey
Thanks, for the info I'm reading through your posts now! I'm sorry your experience was / still is so terrible. Knock on wood, I'm not having as bad a time so far -- I wonder if the most recent booster helped me, or if it's just luck (different strain, different immune system, etc.) Especially good to know how easy it was to pass to your spouse -- I'll do my best to take that into account. (I strongly agree w/ your post on Paxlovid, by the way -- it was a game changer for how bad my symptoms were, I'm very glad I could get it.)

It's also available commercially, e.g., from King Arthur Baking. It's usually called something like "New England Boiled Cider". It has a long and interesting history linked with the anti-slavery movement, since it was an alternative to molasses which was produced on sugar plantations in the South with slave labor. It fell out of frequent use sometime during WWII, I dont' know why.

I use it a lot in apple pies, as a way to amp up the apple flavor without too much additional sweetness.

There also used to be a popular thing called "Boiled Cider Pie", whose f... (read more)

3jefftk
I also really like the flavor:sugar ratio relative to most syrups. My measurement isn't very precise: it might have been more like 6x

Somewhat amusingly, I wrote a paper in 1991 that makes exactly your point. (The linked page at the journal is paywalled, but you can find it if you poke around a bit.)

It was about systems with more than one decomposition into modules, for which there had to be multiple simulations. Those simulations had to be compatible in a certain way, and that led to exactly the commutative diagram you have above (figure 13).

For energy storage, you might consider the Ambri liquid metal batteries. They're being designed for this exact purpose: coupling intermittent renewable generating capacity to steady loads.

Also, they're cheap, rugged, and don't seem to lose capacity over multiple charge/discharge cycles.

Answer by Weekend Editor20

JN Crossley, et al., What Is Mathematical Logic?

A 96-page intro to the basics of predicate calculus, model theory, and Gödel incompleteness. I've used it in the (distant) past a couple times when a student had trouble getting a practical grip on logic.

Answer by Weekend Editor*20

If you feel the need to do something in response to the advent of fusion power and high-capacity batteries, you might want to think about doing it sooner rather than later.

Fusion: I'm beginning to think this is nearer-term than most of us believe. Last September, Commonwealth Fusion Systems demonstrated a 20 Tesla superconducting magnet with a bore large enough for their tokamak.

  • It's a REBCO magnet (rare-earth boron copper oxide) which superconducts at nitrogen temperature, but they're going at 10-20K to have some running room for high field strength wi
... (read more)

The evidence on vaccine efficacy waning is somewhat confusing to me!

On the one hand: Some of the initial data on waning from Israel (using Pfizer) was hopelessly confounded with age, leading to a huge Simpson's paradox effect. Once you (a) figure out the Bayes error (they calculated Pr(vax | hospitalization) when they really wanted Pr(hospitalization | vax)), (b) properly stratify by age, and (c) calculate confidence limits on vaccine efficacy, the effect goes away.

On the other hand: Later Israeli data presented at the Moderna booster hearing cleaned that ... (read more)

Yes, absolutely.

The comment on study power is why I was pretty surprised at the FDA and CDC approvals, based on this study which itself says it's underpowered. I think they were mostly motivated by the safety results that boosters were at least as safe as the primers. So if it might do some good and probably does no harm, they can get to an EUA from there.

This is not the way they usually behave, but then again, these are not usual times.

“But something has really become clear: The mixing really is most impactful when you have a DNA/adenovirus vaccine first followed by the mRNA vaccine,” Gandhi said. WaPo

This is definitely true in terms of antibody fold induction: JnJ followed by either Pfizer or Moderna have the highest fold induction ratios.

However, they're starting from a lower baseline, since JnJ doesn't induce such high ab levels to begin with. (Though it might be better at training T cells and memory B cells, and have longer persistence? It's kind of frustratingly complicated, to... (read more)

Answer by Weekend Editor40

Have a look at the presentation to the FDA's VRBPAC on 2021-Oct-15:

K Lyke, et al., "DMID 21-0012 - Heterologous Platform Boost Study Mix and Match", FDA VRBPAC 2021-Oct-15 Materials, retrieved 2021-Oct-15.

(If you're curious about the how the whole meeting went down, I wrote a little summary.)

Slide 22 (page 23, because the FDA tacks on a header page) should help. It's a 3x3 array of the 3 original vaccines x 3 possible booster vaccines. It shows the factor by which antibody levels are boosted by each primer/booster combination (geometric mean titer fo... (read more)

1warrenjordan
This is great, thanks!  Was wondering if you knew of any sources of how efficacy wanes over time (or persists) for two-doses of Moderna? I'm not actually sure if I do need a booster since I have no clue what baseline I'm working with. 
1Tornus
Excellent data: thank you! Two things to keep in mind: 1. The comment on page 5: the study was "Not powered or designed to compare between the groups" 2. They're only looking at antibody levels (because those are relatively easy to measure), but there's a good argument that some of the differences between strategies will involve activation of B cells & T cells. See also the limitations on page 33.