All of William's Comments + Replies

Of course, in a dating context, it's at least as important to know the answer to the Shadow Question: "What do you want?"

0taryneast
And sometimes you need to strip it all back to fundamentals and ask the first-ones question: "do you have anything worth living for?" Once you've figured that out, you can proceed with the other two.
4AdShea
Depending on your philosophy on dating the Shadow Question could be more important. Lorien's First Question "Why are you here" would also be a good thing to know in reference to the dating site itself.

Star Control II did something very similar--as time went on, the world changed, and eventually one of the villains would start their omnicidal rampage.

5Zvi
And in both of these games I had to restart because you can use a huge amount of time traveling the world map to go places, and spending game time rather than playing time makes perfect sens, especially for the Luck 10 character I was playing, until you realize you've lost. Star Control 2 gives you fair warning and I didn't realize it at the time, but Fallout doesn't and I was pretty mad about it. Having a time limit without being deeply explicit about it is a crime against gaming.

But should stupid adults have no rights?

9DanArmak
Fewer rights, perhaps. More to the point, equal rights isn't a good idea because it's just and right, but rather because it's a defensive position against rulers who grant extra rights to privileged groups.
3gwern
/me checks into legal status of retarded adults & vegetables Dunno about 'should', but they don't have very much beyond what kids have...

Bond's article was mostly referring to fans of fiction and movies, but as someone who has spent time on fora related to both sports fandom and anime fandom, I can safely say they're very similar. You see the same sort of memetics in both--sports message boards frequently fill up with people "quoting"(I don't think this is the best word) the chants made in the stadium itself, much like you'll often see anime-related boards fill up with people quoting famous lines from certain series. You see the same sort of provincialism in both--"If you'r... (read more)

You don't, you use a decision model that incorporates bias.

It already is a socially accepted factoid. People are afraid of AI for no good reason. (As for Wolfram Alpha, it's at about the same level as ALICE. I'm getting more and more convinced that Stephen Wolfram has lost it...)

Next time, you can use ^W ;)

To make it look more fair than it actually is.

I know that PUA is "pickup artist" but what is AFC?

6mattnewport
'Average Frustrated Chump' - your typical guy who's not a natural and hasn't got any game.

Only if you have some sort of information about the unanswered prayers.

The assumption is that you're in a two-choice vote, where there is no way to pull the rope sideways.

On the other hand, "lonely voices of reason" are unlikely to overrun a community of idiots the way idiots can overrun a more intelligent community.

5sketerpot
I've seen it happen, actually. I went to a Christian youth forum looking for some shooting-fish-in-a-barrel debating fun, and over time I noticed that a handful of rationalists gradually came to dominate discussion, to the point where the majority would avoid making ridiculous statements in order to avoid being called out on it. A few bright, articulate people who can type fast are surprisingly effective. If LW ever invades some other forum, that forum will either get out the banhammer or be overrun.

Unless LWers got together and staged an invasion... wouldn't that make for an interesting day at some forum...

The idea of a null hypothesis is non-Bayesian.

2andrewc
I'm not sure it's so clear cut. They key point is that when you do the p value test you are determining p(data | null_hyp). This is certainly useful to calculate, but doesn't tell you the whole story about whether your data support any particular non-null hypotheses. Chapter 17 of E.T. Jaynes' book provides a lively discussion of the limitations of traditional hypothesis testing, and is accessible enough that you can dive into it without having worked through the rest of the book. The Cohen article cited below is nice but it's important to note it doesn't completely reject the use of null hypotheses or p-values:
0thomblake
I think it's funny that the observation that it's "non-Bayesian" is being treated here as a refutation, and got voted up. Not terribly surprising though.
8JGWeissman
A null hypothesis in Bayesian terms is a theory with a high prior probability due to minimal complexity.

On the other hand, 4chan's view of "fun" includes causing epileptic seizures in others.

You can force yourself to parse the sentence but I suspect that the part of your brain that you use to parse it is different from the one you use in normal reading and in fact closer to the part of the brain you use to solve a puzzle.

1JulianMorrison
I puzzle what goes where, but the bit that holds the parse once I've assembled it feels the same as normal.

"Composition of my mind" is a bad phrase for it, but what I mean is that I have a collection of neurons that say "I'm a one-boxer" or similar.

Speaking of differential equations in economics, a friend of mine has had an idea that there should be an economics textbook for mathematicians, because it annoyed him so much that they seem to dance around mathematical concepts--for example, marginal anything is clearly a derivative, although normal econ textbooks never call it that.

0conchis
Not in the discrete case.
0steven0461
That's odd -- if anything, econ usually gets accused of being way too much about mathematical formalism. This, for example, might as well be "an economics textbook for mathematicians"; maybe your friend will find it helpful.
0PhilGoetz
Do you mean a math text for economists?

I can choose through the composition of my mind to save 3 lives by wanting to refuse to take the money to save 2 lives. Or I can choose to save the two lives and thus not get 3 lives. Why the hell would I take both boxes?

0John_Maxwell
I guess that makes sense. If you have the option of choosing what the composition of your mind is.

But if the tribe expands?

0wedrifid
We worry about any problems that brings when they happen. (Premature optimization is usually a bad idea.)

This also shows the dangers of such a method--if Rush gets too powerful, it goes from "You naughty boy, Rush!" to "You naughty boy, critic of Rush!", like what's happening now with respect to Michael Steele. And too much extremism can result in evaporative cooling.

1PhilGoetz
Evaporative cooling?

The result of two-boxing is a thousand dollars. The result of one-boxing is a million dollars. By definition, a mind that always one-boxes receives a better payout than one that always two-boxes, and therefore one-boxing is more rational, by definition.

1orthonormal
See Arguing "By Definition". It's particularly problematic when the definition of "rational" is precisely what's in dispute.
1Furcas
The result of two-boxing is a thousand dollars more than you would have gotten otherwise. The result of one-boxing is a thousand dollars less than you would have gotten otherwise. Therefore two-boxing is more rational, by definition. What determines whether you'll be in a 1M/1M+1K situation or in a 0/1K situation is the kind of mind you have, but in Newcomb's problem you're not given the opportunity to affect what kind of mind you have (by pre-commiting to one-boxing, for example), you can only decide whether to get X or X+1K, regardless of X's value.

Personally, I think the word "win" might be the problem. Winning is very binary, which isn't how rationality is defined. Perhaps "Rationalists maximize"?

The use of "some of which" suggests that he considers most of the holes to be Fruitful Voids, merely not all of them.

Agreed. TVTropes works very well without any but the lightest semblance of neutrality.

Warning, though: It is horrendously addictive

Ironically enough, I just clicked through to see what was behind "horrendously addictive" and lost half an hour.

5Paul Crowley
Irritatingly, this site now has its own non-standard acronym for the Internet standard "IAWTC".
5Cyan
"IAWYC" is short for "I agree with your conclusion". See this post and its comment thread.

As a sidenote, it's a very good sign that this discussion has followed the path of

Case studies in medicine are most interesting when all the student doctors disagree with each other.

One warning though: Gambler's ruin is very possible with betting systems, even if your strategy has a positive expected value.