All of wzp's Comments + Replies

wzp110

I think approaching any topic with the mindset that 'I want to invest, where can I learn' is not a great approach. You should first form a solid understanding of the subject and then based on your understanding decide, whether it is worthwhile to invest or not. 

As for the resources, I am unfortunately probably just as magnificently ignorant in this particular subject.  

wzp10

Cool sci-fi-ish idea, but my impression has been that 3D printing is viable for smaller and/or specific objects for which there is not enough demand to set up a separate production line. If economies of scale start to play a role then setting up a more specifically optimized process wins over general purpose 3D plant. 

2Daniel Kokotajlo
This sort of thing would bring the cost down a lot, I think. Orders of magnitude, maybe. With costs that low, many more components and products would be profitable to 3D print instead of manufacture the regular way. Currently, Tesla uses 3D printing for some components of their cars I believe; this proves that for some components (tricky, complex ones typically) it's already cost-effective. When the price drops by orders of magnitude, this will be true for many more components. I'm pretty sure there would be sufficient demand, therefore, to keep at least a few facilities like this running 24/7.
wzp30

I think this example shows more that the difference between vagueness and simplicity is dependent on the context. If I talk to somebody who has not read LW/rationality/IQ studies they have no concrete mental model of what it means to have IQ 130 (other than that the higher IQs are better). So then saying "you need IQ 130" and explaining in a convoluted way what exactly did you mean by that conveys less information than just saying "you need to be smart" and makes a simple statement more complex.

On the other hand, if I talk to somebody about whom I have rea... (read more)

wzp30

One more thing to consider is where you would be driving. I would guess that if you drove in urban areas where speed limits are about or below 50 kph (30 mph?) your risk of death while driving within speed limit is much lower. Also, using seat belt appears to be pretty useful (40+% of fatally injured occupants were unbelted). And when you would be driving is also somewhat significant (though I assume the dependence on time is at least partly caused by there being relatively more drunk drivers during weekends and nights) 

3Adam Zerner
Yeah I agree. This is one of the places where I could see orders of magnitude differences that are strong enough to drive changes in the ultimate conclusion. Eg. from "it isn't worth the risk" to "it is worth the risk". I've only been able to do a very handwavvy estimate of you having 1/4 of the risk if you're safe. Josh Jacobson's analysis looks like it's closer to 1/6. His factored in seatbelt wearing, but not speed limit, and speed limit does make a lot of sense. It'd also be great if there was good data on more obscure things like wearing a helmet in a car, although iirc a helmet specifically might actually cause more harm due to the torque causing worse whiplash. Anyone know if that's true? Update: It looks like urban compared to rural only reduces fatality rate by about a factor of two. However, you probably have to drive more miles if you're in a rural place, so maybe urban can get up to a 10x improvement.