India's birth rates are falling rapidly, and already below replacement.
Also note the impossibility that over half the population has full time house help... cheap labour only helps the well off.
1Has anyone looked into the recent Chinese paper claiming to have reversed aging in monkeys?
Is it real or BS?
Thanks for clarifying, please keep in mind LessWrongs policy on AI generated content: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KXujJjnmP85u8eM6B/policy-for-llm-writing-on-lesswrong
This seems to me like it was partly generated or rewritten by an LLM. Is that correct?
1Your complaining about how the graph is drawn, and hope to fix that by drawing a graph that is almost certainly wrong? At least the graph they drew only relies on actual past data.
I agree they would do better to acknowledge that whilst the growth is currently exponential, it will have to stop at some point but we have no idea when. That gets a bit tiring after a while though.
Because it has the wrong shape in every way that matters if they draw an s curve with us at the halfway point (which seems to be the natural failure mode), and they're actually at the 1 percent mark. The s curve isn't particularly illuminating over simply saying this exponential will stop at some point but we don't know when, but unfortunately tends to lend itself to overconfident predictions.
Whilst technically true, those who attempt to use this fact to predict future growth tend to end up just as wrong as those who don't.
All exponentials end, but if you don't know when you need to prepare equally for the scenario where it ends tomorrow, and the one where it ends with the universe in paperclips.
Ok, you are technically correct, but in practice even in cheap labour societies a lot less than half of households have full time help.