Oh, I see. I find it very unlikely. Such actions would border on casus beli, and it just doesn't seem important enough to risk an actual war with Israel. The US sent ~$80B over the years, which is a bit less than $2B a year, which is 2% of Egypt's government budget.
The peace with Israel is mainly based on mutual deterrence since the 1973 war, military aid from Israel and more. The US is not a major actor within it.
I would expect very public, very ulikely to escalate actions in order to increase US aid. Not something like this.
I agree it will also affect Gaza. Disagree about the effect on Israeli casualties.
I agree. However I know that it's widely accepted Hamas is enjoying popular support. I don't have good public sources to support that statement, it follows from many little anecdotes over the years. A good example is that unlike widely unliked authoritarian regimes such as Belarus, they enjoyed very little protests over the years, and have managed to repeatedly rally people to their needs.
While it's a defensible position from a "briefely googled this" point of view, I really don't think people who have been following closely hold this position.
I really doubt that. The Hamas generally enjoys popular support, AFAIK (no good public source).
I really doubt that. The Hamas generally enjoys popular support, AFAIK (no good public source).
The Russian are now close Iranian allies, so it might have been some form of payment.
Could you point me to the exact deal? I'm not sure what you're talking about. Also, Egypt had three different regimes since 2010, which all had different interests. We have reasonably good relations with the current one.
Sure. Qatar is one other obvious candidate, and there are probably other possibilities.
I was actually born in Netzarim in the Gaza strip, but my parents left when I was one month old for job reasons. I've not been there until 2005, when The Separation happened, all jews were transferred from the strip and jewish entrance was prohibited, after which I couldn't visit anymore.
There are 150,000 Palestinians from the West Bank who work in in Israel, and around 15,000 from the Gaza strip who used to do the same until last saturday. Israelis and Israeli Arabs mix all the time (for instance, I have some Israeli Arab friends), Palestinians less so. Access from and to the Gaza strip is very restricted, and in the West Bank settlements are separate. I live for a few years in the West Bank, and I talked to Palestinians when I met them during hiking and stuff. My dad and I actually saved a Palestinian goat that fell to a water canal during one of our hikes. It's unrelated to your question, just a funny anecdote I remembered while writing this.
We shouldn't have payed so much, but I don't know if it had a long term strategic impact. We definitely gave a lot of talent back to Hamas, who used it well.
Basically zero. My theory would rely on classified information, so I won't give it, sorry. I imagine there will be some kind of public commission of inquiry after the war. I'll try and remember to post a link to its conclusion for you when that happens.
Part 1: I agree, it seems they don't use the Roofknock Protocol for now, and that will be the main source of civilian casualties. It's a tragedy, but not actually a problem by law of war (see Jay Donde's post).
Part 2: I generally agree. I don't think actual food shortage will be a problem (5%), electricity might (10-33%, very uncertain) but I don't think will cause many casualties by itself. We live in a warm country, and hospitals (and Hamas operatives) have emergency reserves.
Part 3: I agree, and think it depends a lot on Egyptian refugee policy.
Additional possibility is a second front in Lebanon, which adds orders of magnitude more missiles, which are also stronger and more accurate. Israeli civilian casualties will quickly rise, not to mention the possibility of them trying similar tactics to those Hamas tried last Saturday (even though that will probably be less effective, since Israel is on high alert).
Of course such scenario will also deeply impact Lebanon and its citizens.
As for your later point, I think Israel is trying to topple Hamas's regime, one way or another. The region around Gaza is populated by 70,000 people, who will not stay there if there's a risk for attacks like the last one. I am not sure whether it will be done by completely occupying the strip, a siege, or something completely different, but I don't think we'll return to status quo unless Israel tries and fails to do that.
We are in agreement, then