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lc61

Totally understand why this would be more interesting; I guess I would still fundamentally describe what we're doing on the internet as conversation, with the same rules as you would describe above. It's just that the conversation you can find here (or potentially on Twitter) is superstimulating compared to what you're getting elsewhere. Which is good in the sense that it's more fun, and I guess bad inasmuch as IRL conversation was fulfilling some social or networking role that online conversation wasn't.

lc50

10xing my income did absolutely nothing for my dating life. It had so little impact that I am now suspicious of all of the people who suggest this more than marginally improves sexual success for men.

lc6-1

In the same way that Chinese people forgot how to write characters by hand, I think most programmers will forget how to write code without LLM editors or plugins pretty soon.

lc6-1

...How is that definition different than a realtime version of what you do when participating in this forum?

lc50

I'm interested too. I think several of the above are solvable issues. AFAICT:

Solved by simple modifications to markets:

  • Races to correct naive bidders
  • Defending the true price from incorrect bidders for $ w/o letting price shift

Seem doable with thought:

  • Billing for information value
  • Policy conditionals

Seem hard/idk if it's possible to fully solve:

  • Collating information known by different bidders
  • Preventing tricking other bidders for profit
  • General enterprise of credit allocation for knowledge creation
lc508

The Prediction Market Discord Message, by Eva_:

Current market structures can't bill people for the information value that went into the market fairly, can't fairly handle secret information known to only some bidders, pays out most of the subsidy to whoever corrects the naive bidder fastest even though there's no benefit to making it a race, offers almost no profit to people trying to defend the true price from incorrect bidders unless they let the price shift substantially first, can't be effectively used to collate information known by different bidders, can't handle counterfactuals / policy conditionals cleanly, implement EDT instead of LDT, let you play games of tricking other bidders for profit and so require everyone to play trading strategies that are inexploitable even if less beneficial, can't defend against people who are intentionally illegible as to whether they have private information or are manipulating the market for profit elsewhere...

But most of all, prediction markets contain supposedly ideal economic actors who don't really suspect each other of dishonesty betting money against each other even though it's a net-zero trade and the aggreeement theorem says they shouldn't expect to profit from it at all, so clearly this is not the mathematically ideal solution for a group to collate its knowledge and pay itself for the value that knowledge [provides]. Even if you need betting to be able to trust nonsharable information from another party, you shouldn't have people betting in excess of what is needed to prove sincerity out of a belief other people are wrong unless you've actually got other people being wrong even in light of the new actors' information.

lc31

I don't think I will ever find the time to write my novel. Writing novels is dumb anyways. But I feel like the novel and world are bursting out of me. What do

lc160

Outside of politics, none are more certain that a substandard or overpriced product is a moral failing than gamers. You'd think EA were guilty of war crimes with the way people treat them for charging for DLC or whatever.

lc40

At least according to CNN's exit polls, a white person in their twenties was only 6% less likely to vote for Trump in 2020 than a white person above the age of sixty!

This was actually very surprising for me; I think a lot of people have a background sense that younger white voters are much less socially and politically conservative. That might still be true, but the ones that choose to vote vote republican at basically the same rate in national elections.

lc221

Interesting whitepill hidden inside Scott Alexander's SB 1047 writeup was that lying doesn't work as well as predicted in politics. It's possible that if the opposition had lied less often, or we had lied more often, the bill would not have gotten a supermajority in the senate.

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