criticism in LW comments is why he stopped writing Sequences posts
I wasn't aware of this and would like more information. Can anyone provide a source, or report their agreement or disagreement with the claim?
I second questions 1, 5, and 6 after listening to the Dwarkesh interview.
Re 6: at 1:24:30 in the Dwarkesh podcast Leopold proposes the US making an agreement with China to slow down (/pause) after the US has a 100GW cluster and is clearly going to win the race to build AGI to buy time to get things right during the "volatile period" before AGI.
(Note: Regardless of whether it was worth it in this case, simeon_c's reward/incentivization idea may be worthwhile as long as there are expected to be some cases in the future where it's worth it, since the people in those future cases may not be as willing as Daniel to make the altruistic personal sacrifice, and so we'd want them to be able to retain their freedom to speak without it costing them as much personally.)
I'd be interested in hearing peoples' thoughts on whether the sacrifice was worth it, from the perspective of assuming that counterfactual Daniel would have used the extra net worth altruistically. Is Daniel's ability to speak more freely worth more than the altruistic value that could have been achieved with the extra net worth?
Retracted, thanks.
Retracted due to spoilers and not knowing how to use spoiler tags.
Received $400 worth of bitcoin. I confirm the bet.
@RatsWrongAboutUAP I'm willing to risk up to $20k at 50:1 odds (i.e. If you give me $400 now, I'll owe you $20k in 5 years if you win the bet) conditional on (1) you not being privy to any non-public information about UFOs/UAP and (2) you being okay with forfeiting any potential winnings in the unlikely event that I die before bet resolution.
Re (1): Could you state clearly whether you do or do not have non-public information pertaining to the bet?
Re (2): FYI The odds of me dying in the next 5 years are less than 3% by SSA base rates, and my credence is even less than that if we don't account for global or existential catastrophic risk. The reason I'd ask to not owe you any money in the worlds in which you win (and are still alive to collect money) and I'm dead is because I wouldn't want anyone else to become responsible for settling such a significant debt on my behalf.
If you accept, please reply here and send the money to this Bitcoin address: 3P6L17gtYbj99mF8Wi4XEXviGTq81iQBBJ
I'll confirm receipt of the money when I get notified of your reply here. Thanks!
The title "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Markets and Love the Arbitrage" isn't appropriate for the content of the post. That there is a play-money prediction market in which it costs very little to make the prices on conditional questions very wrong does not provide significant reasons to trust prediction markets less. That this post got 193 karma leading me to see it 2 months later is a sign of bad-voting IMO. (There are many far better, more important posts that get far less karma.)