I recently read Terry Bouricious' book about Sortition and I highly recommend it (It's completely free on his substack)

Typo: It's Prediction Markets "Fail" To *Mooch (not Moloch)

Reducing the amount of voters can be good because it increases the remaining voters' motive to become well informed instead of remaining rationally ignorant, but it won't work if people just self refrain, because the people who refrain will probably me exactly those that should remain.

Using sortition to pick a representative subset of the population to vote solves this problem.

Technically it makes sense for the nuked side to lose everything and for the nuking side to gain little. But you want to model a scenario where the sides might actually want to nuke the other side, which you have naturally between enemies, but don't have between LessWrongers unless you incentivize them somehow. So giving rewards for nuking makes sense, because people want to increase their own Karma but don't want to decrease the Karma of others.

And I think the incentives are deliberately designed such that no nukes aren't the obvious optimal equilibrium. That's what makes it an exercise in not destroying the world. If it were easy it wouldn't be much of an exercise.

This is extremely cool! good job! Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds, which will unfortunately happen mostly as I sleep (and as a citizen I hope to come out at the end of this with no change to my Karma)

Thanks. If it's indeed framed as a game then I would like to participate as well. So I pressed the button and opted in.

That sounds like a terrible strategy. Your threat won't be credible because your goal is to make the world better, not destroy it. And anything you do to make the threat credible (like some sort of precomitment mechanism) will risk the world actually getting destroyed.

Did anything happen after you pressed it?

How would you leverage a button that destroys the world to make the world better?