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Because it's relevant to my professional interest -- who do you think is really, really world class today on making "rock" and "wave" content ?
I would bet hard cash that "I’m sure I’ll be at least in the bottom 5% for intelligence at Less Online. I won’t be surprised or hurt if I’ve got the least Gs of people there" is wrong.
But okay, let's just go with your fears and assume for sake of argument that you're right... Last year, Aella did a live polling event at Manifest where she asked us to, in general, first predict how we relatively compared to the crowd on any N, then define actual buckets of values and arrange ourselves by those buckets.
(So, e.g., "predict how recently have you exercised compared to others; the most recent, all the way on the left, the least recent, all the way on the right" and then "okay, let's define from that fence to that chair as 'in the last hour', the chair to the steps as 'in the last day', etc." and have folks line up twice based on first their relative guess, then their actual value.)
I was overall deeply surprised when she had folks line up under that system by SAT scores and IQ scores. It was, generally, extremely poorly correlated with how awesome it was to get to talk with a given person.
This post already expresses a great deal of the vibes that make me think it will be awesome to meet you, and that you get a lot of the vibes folks are aiming for, as far as I can tell. Looking forward to meeting ya!
Epistemic status: not a lawyer, but I've worked with a lot of them.
As I understand it, an NDA isn't enforceable against a subpoena (though the former employer can seek a protective order for the testimony). Someone should really encourage law enforcement or Congress to subpoena the OpenAI resigners...
1Forgive me if this is obvious, but have you done the following three things:
1. Go through the list of resources on 211 Arizona (Note: 211 is an emerging, but not yet nationally-adopted, standard for a first-point-of-entry on social services, just like 911 is for emergency services) -- see https://211arizona.org/ .
Your goal here is to do a breadth-first search: look for things that you haven't yet applied for, plausibly might get, and can get quickly. Don't go too deep down a rabbit hole, but rather try to quickly sort and validate or reject various ideas on there.
2. Reach out to your local Congressional office for help -- ask them if there are any programs they know of that can help, especially as a survivor of domestic violence.
3. Also, if you haven't gone to your local food bank, please, please consider this SOCIAL PERMISSION TO GO TO YOUR LOCAL FOOD BANK. It literally exists for exactly this purpose.
It may be worth noting that, at least anecdotally, when you talk about AI development processes with DoD policy people, they assume that SCIFs will be used at some point.
YMMV on whether that's their pattern-matching or hard-earned experience speaking, but I think worth noting.
Hypothesis, super weakly held and based on anecdote:
One big difference between US national security policy people and AI safety people is that the "grieving the possibility that we might all die" moment happened, on average, more years ago for the national security policy person than the AI safety person.
This is (even more weakly held) because the national security field has existed for longer, so many participants literally had the "oh, what happens if we get nuked by Russia" moment in their careers in the Literal 1980s...
"Achievable goal" or "plausible outcome", maybe?
These are plausible concerns, but I don't think they match what I see as a longtime DC person.
We know that the legislative branch is less productive in the US than it has been in any modern period, and fewer bills get passed (many different metrics for this, but one is https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CONGRESS/PRODUCTIVITY/egpbabmkwvq/) . Those bills that do get passed tend to be bigger swings as a result -- either a) transformative legislation (e.g., Obamacare, Trump tax cuts and COVID super-relief, Biden Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS) or b) big omnibus "must-pass" bills like FAA reauthorization, into which many small proposals get added in.
I also disagree with the claim that policymakers focus on credibility and consensus generally, except perhaps in the executive branch to some degree. (You want many executive actions to be noncontroversial "faithfully executing the laws" stuff, but I don't see that as "policymaking" in the sense you describe it.)
In either of those, it seems like the current legislative "meta" favors bigger policy asks, not small wins, and I'm having trouble of thinking of anyone I know who's impactful in DC who has adopted the opposite strategy. What are examples of the small wins that you're thinking of as being the current meta?
I would like to +1 the "I don't expect our audiences to find that scenario reassuring in any way" -- I would also add that the average policymaker I've ever met wouldn't find a lack of including the exotic scenarios to be in any way inaccurate or deceitful, unless you were way in the weeds for a multi-hour convo and-or they asked you in detail for "well, are there any weird edge cases where we make it through".