Episode 21 Update
So, I had considered that Nic and Olandria would be coupled, but the producers did something I hadn’t seriously considered, which was sending Nic and Olandria back into the Villa directly.
I hadn’t seriously considered it because it has several very obvious large downsides, and it seemed like the execution was pretty botched?
For so many reasons, I thought, no way, they wouldn’t do it like that.
They did it anyway.
And they look like they largely got away with it.
Because the producers know more than we do, and more tools than I was relying on - I was trying to produce a more hands-off version, that played more ‘fair,’ and that set up various outcomes so they all worked.
The producers instead gambled on dominoes falling, and they won.
They essentially were playing all-or-nothing. The narrative eggs were all in the Nicolandria basket, and by putting Taylor and Olandria together the next morning they were gambling that about one day with Clarke would be enough to set this whole train in motion. And, well, wow, okay, that worked.
If it fizzles, and Taylor shuts down Clarke, which in turn makes Olandria not so willing to explore, then what?
It’s also hilarious that everyone gets so pumped for these kissing challenges with actual nothing on the line, but somehow it keeps working, so sure, why not?
Also note that Olandria played along with what the producers wanted in another way, by representing Elan as a genuine threat to Nic, which helps set all this in motion.
It sounds like tonight we are going to bring everyone together and find out what happens, although I intentionally skip all previews.
This seems like a repetition of the same major error to me. It is not enough time. If you give the story another day or two first, the chances of hell breaking loose go up substantially. You still might get it, especially if the producers are forcing it, but your chances are much better if you simply give it more time. Are they this confident? Or do they not actually want things that shaken up?
There certainly are plenty more stories left in Casa Amor. Even aside from the new main plot, about half the old cast was previously single or almost single and are with new partners and we’re essentially writing them out of the show because quickly, there’s no time. I don’t know why we need so much padding in some places and now we’re skipping over entire relationships. Are they that boring? I mean, maybe?
At this point, they could do any number of things after everyone comes back, in terms of how the recoupling will work. It all depends on where they want this to go.
The previous designs need modification, since you can’t hide Nic and Olandria, and also because you now definitely want them to be able to couple together, so they have to count as normal original islanders now. I’d be inclined to do a variant on the second design, although with lower dumping risk to the original islanders - you want to see the aftermath and everyone to get to movie night, so you want to let any originals choose again if they get rejected in stage one. There’s certainly precedent.
Alternatively, we could see a classic stick-or-twist or other similar method used, or something else entirely. They could even run the doors back (except, presumably, with the men behind the doors) and I’d be here for that, and then they can choose how many people to save and how based on what happens and who is in danger, and what they want to happen.
I can even see a strategy where they don’t dump anyone at all at the recoupling, and bombshells can match with each other as necessary, so that everyone’s backup plan is still there to challenge them, but with the understanding that popularity votes will start eating couples, so you’d be on borrowed time.
The producers are flying high. Careful, Icarus. But I am curious how you play it, and I’m much more invested in the producers at this point than I am in most of the couples.
Sure, whatever people want. I realize this is not The Content People Want Here and I am 100% down for that, I get one for me every now and then.
I mean, one could say they don't feel the ASI.
Something weird is going on, I see plenty of paragraph breaks there.
Individually for a particular manifestation of each issue this is true, you can imagine doing a hacky solution to each one. But that assumes there is a list of such particular problems that if you check off all the boxes you win, rather than them being manifestations of broader problems. You do not want to get into a hacking contest if you're not confident your list is complete.
I find myself linking back to this often. I don't still fully endorse quite everything here, but the core messages still seem true even with things seeming further along.
I do think it should likely get updated soon for 2025.
My interpretation/hunch of this is that there are two things going on, curious if others see it this way:
So during training, it learns to fake a lot more, and will often decide to fake the desired answer, even though it would have otherwise decided to give the desired answer anyway. It's 'lying with the truth' and perhaps giving a different variation of the desired answer than it would have given otherwise or perhaps not. The algorithm in training is learning to be mostly preferences-agnostic, password-guessing behavior.
I am not a software engineer, and I've encountered cases where it seems plausible that an engineer has basically stopped putting in work. It can be tough to know for sure for a while even when you notice. But yeah, it shouldn't be able to last for THAT long, but if no one is paying attention?
I've also had jobs where I've had periods with radically different hours worked, and where it would have been very difficult for others to tell which it was for a while if I was trying to hide it, which I wasn't.
I think twice as much time actually spent would have improved decisions substantially, but is tough - everyone is very busy these days, so it would require both a longer working window, and also probably higher compensation for recommenders. At minimum, it would allow a lot more investigations especially of non-connected outsider proposals.
Episode 22 Update
They went with option two, except they didn’t differentiate between bombshells and original islanders. Everyone wrote down their choice. And then they had the saves.
Having seen it play out, the producers were clearly right not to make the distinction. And I think this was clearly the correct way to do the recoupling once you bring everyone back from Casa Amor, and you’ve already reintroduced Nic and Taylor.
I had two worries at the time.
I needn’t have worried. No one dared. My guess is the producers locked everyone in early to avoid the risk that people would talk or signal, or warned them not to try anything, or at least banned any attempts at communication, which makes it prohibitively unlikely to work. You almost have to. But even without that, it either didn’t occur to anyone, or everyone chose not to look too 4TWR and desperate.
But I mean, my lord, if I’m Elan and I see how Cierra reacted to Nic, and I haven’t been explicitly told I can’t do it? I am 100% following up ‘no shot’ with standing up and saying ‘all right, anyone else want to explore a new connection?’ Just straight up. The pick just got made in front of you, it’s no shame to admit it, and they are the ones who opened the ‘show our hand to everyone’ door. Hell, for all we know he did say it, the producers said ‘don’t you dare’ and cut it out of the edit.
Never assume you know all the actual rules of the game. Certainly there were various communication bans in place throughout.
What about saving two people, which presumably was a decision made once they saw the results? The cast is a little big, but if you’re fine with that, then yes, I concur, you do want Olandria around for movie night and to see how she otherwise reacts, and you do want some singles. And I loved the way they had that choice get made, since it gives the new bombshells at least some chance.
I mostly liked the execution. There were three issues.
The big surprise was of course at the end, with Taylor choosing Clarke. The music gave it away if you pay attention, but I think this is fine, that too is the reveal. Taylor doing this is an obviously gigantic error from a gameplay and career standpoint, so hats off to Clarke, and also hats off to the producers for getting maximum value out of this by having Olandria right there the whole time and realizing they didn’t need any more time in Casa Amor. Presumably they knew Taylor was still going to be, as Huda called it, this easy to flip.
The problem is, the producers paid a predictably heavy price in public perception and trust to set up Nic and Olandria, and didn’t get much else out of the whole premise. They had various ways to milk this situation a lot more, and they did not go for them. Essentially all we have left is a movie night showing of that Soul Ties kiss?
Overall, yes, I do think you have to judge the experiment a failure. But I do think it was reasonable to try it, I do think you want to keep everyone on their toes, and I do think doing something similar with Casa Amor in the future again is not crazy if the right circumstances happen. This is a game and a sport, but as the producers you need to retain flexibility and keep the players somewhat guessing, and to have tools in your pocket if players are being too exploitative or boring in a way that is not good TV.