Will AGI progress gradually or rapidly? I think the disagreement is mostly about what happens before we build powerful AGI.
I think weaker AI systems will already have radically transformed the world. This is strategically relevant because I'm imagining AGI strategies playing out in a world where everything is already going crazy, while other people are imagining AGI strategies playing out in a world that looks kind of like 2018 except that someone is about to get a decisive strategic advantage.
(Thanks to Vivek Hebbar, Buck Shlegeris, Charlie Griffin, Ryan Greenblatt, Thomas Larsen, and Joe Carlsmith for feedback.)
People use the word “schemer” in two main ways:
Thanks, these points are helpful.
Terminological question:
It's a Known Thing in the keto-sphere [ I get the sense that r/saturatedfat is an example of this culture ] that people with metabolic syndrome -- i.e., some level of insulin resistance -- can handle fat or carbs [ e.g. either a ketogenic diet or something like the potato diet ] but can't handle both at the same time without suffering two symptoms:
[ 1 ] gaining weight
and
[ 2 ] suffering fatigue.
This is sometimes called "The Swamp".*
This is a very peculiar way for human metabolism to work. What's more, it only works this way for some people -- centrally, people who have acquired some level of insulin resistance [ "metabolic syndrome" ].
The insulin-resistant population leans not-young and slightly male, and its incidence is only appreciable in locations...
T1 diabetic here
What you call "The swamp" is one half well known to me
I cannot attest to any weight gain, as it's near impossible for me to "just gain weight".
The key I believe is that a definite craving for high-fat high-sugar food appears when the blood sugars are high, in quite a paradoxical fashion.
If I eat too much carbs and forget to take enough insulin for it, my BG can go from by preferred 4-5 to around 10 or above.
High blood sugars cause tiredness , confusion and exhaustion, clogged sinuses, dehydration, lack of joy, plus junk fo...
I don't know whether the rules are justified or not, but I do think they are unfair. As much as we try to be rational, I don't think any of us are great at disregarding the reflex to interpret broken English as a sign of less intelligent thought, and so the perceived credibility of non-native speakers is going to take a hit.
(In your particular case, I wouldn't worry too much, because your solo writing is good. But I do sympathise if it costs you extra time and effort to polish it.)
How much time should you spend optimizing any particular process you might engage in? Even assuming that you’re optimizing for a value of overriding importance or value there is only a limited amount of time available.
If all available time is spent optimizing clearly that would be suboptimal since there would be no time left to actually engage in any particular process pursuant to what we value. So the optimal level of optimization is always suboptimal.
However, that might seem to be trivial and only operant at some kind of asympoptic limit we need not worry about in our lives. The problem, though, is deeper. That the optimal level of optimization is suboptimal is both a kind of trivial truth as our time is finite but also a statement...
Postscript -- in the example they give, the output clearly isn't only introspection. In particular the model says it 'read the poem aloud several times' which, ok, that's something I am confident that the model can't do (could it be an analogy? Maaaybe, but it seems like a stretch). My guess is that little or no actual introspection is going on, because LLMs don't seem to be incentivized to learn to accurately introspect during training. But that's a guess; I wouldn't make any claims about it in the absence of empirical evidence.
Everyone around me has a notable lack of system prompt. And when they do have a system prompt, it’s either the eigenprompt or some half-assed 3-paragraph attempt at telling the AI to “include less bullshit”.
I see no systematic attempts at making a good one anywhere.[1]
(For clarity, a system prompt is a bit of text—that's a subcategory of "preset" or "context"—that's included in every single message you send the AI.)
No one says “I have a conversation with Claude, then edit the system prompt based on what annoyed me about its responses, then I rinse and repeat”.
No one says “I figured out what phrasing most affects Claude's behavior, then used those to shape my system prompt".
I don't even see a “yeah I described what I liked and don't like about...
Here the first message, where I talked about how I was worried about spreading sickness, didn't send, which left a pretty funny interaction.
At Less Online, I ran a well-attended session titled "Religion for Rationalists" to help me work out how I could write a post (this one!) about one of my more controversial beliefs without getting downvoted to hell. Let's see how I do!
My thesis is that most people, including the overwhelmingly atheist and non-religious rationalist crowd, would be better off if they actively participated in an organized religion.
My argument is roughly that religions uniquely provide a source of meaning, community, and life guidance not available elsewhere, and to the extent anything that doesn't consider itself a religion provides these, it's because it's imitating the package of things that makes something a religion. Not participating in a religion is obviously fine, but I think it leaves people missing out...
It depends how you define hinduism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindu_philosophy
In broadest sense people just try to claim everything on here, it just becomes a second word for "culture but Indian" .
There are narrow sense of the term.
I often want to include an image in my posts to give a sense of a situation. A photo communicates the most, but sometimes that's too much: some participants would rather remain anonymous. A friend suggested running pictures through an AI model to convert them into a Studio Ghibli-style cartoon, as was briefly a fad a few months ago:
House Party Dances Letting Kids Be OutsideThe model is making quite large changes, aside from just converting to a cartoon, including:
For my purposes, however, this is helpful, since I'm trying to illustrate the general feeling of the situation and an overly faithful cartoon could communicate identity too well.
I know that many of my friends are strongly opposed to AI-generated art, primarily for its effect on human...
Sorry, I wrote my own reply (saying roughly the same thing) without having seen this. I've upvoted and strong agree voted, but the agreement score was in the negative before I did that. If the disagree vote came from curvise, then I'm curious as to why.[1]
It seems to me that moonlight's comment gets to a key point here: you're not being asked to trust the AI; you're being asked to trust the author's judgment. The author's judgment might be poor, and the image might be misleading! But that applies just as well to the author's verbal descriptions. If you tru...
Current “unlearning” methods only suppress capabilities instead of truly unlearning the capabilities. But if you distill an unlearned model into a randomly initialized model, the resulting network is actually robust to relearning. We show why this works, how well it works, and how to trade off compute for robustness.
Produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program in the winter 2024–25 cohort of the shard theory stream.
Read our paper on ArXiv and enjoy an interactive demo.
Maybe some future AI has long-term goals and humanity is in its way. Maybe future open-weight AIs have tons...
More speculatively, UNDO’ing deception or sycophancy.
That would be pretty sweet