> "Amy": Sorry Mike, I entered the wrong number. I hope this was a beautiful misunderstanding. I am very sorry for the trouble I have caused you. > > Me: No trouble at all, hope you are well! > > "Amy": It is fate that we meet each other. Please...
This is a linkpost for: https://www.replicationmarkets.com/ From their sign-up page: > Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$! > From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication...
Seems like the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of sunscreen, the studies I've seen against it generally seem to not address the obvious confounder that people who tend to wear sunscreen more are also the ones who have a lifestyle that involves being in the sun a lot more.
Dermatica prompts you to send them photos every few months so they can check how your skin is reacting, but it's also convenient because you can look back and see the improvement.
Very helpful, thank you for the extra detail!
oh super helpful, thanks!
It says to reapply every two hours but I... do not do that 😅 I put it on in the morning and would reapply if I was spending time outside. I don't know how important the "every 2 hours" thing is
Oh nice! My retinoid formula and moisturizer have hyaluronic acid mixed in so it's hard for me to isolate its effects, but a lot of people seem to find it hugely beneficial
I did a bunch of research on this a while ago, here are my high-level conclusions:
"Amy": Sorry Mike, I entered the wrong number. I hope this was a beautiful misunderstanding. I am very sorry for the trouble I have caused you.
Me: No trouble at all, hope you are well!
"Amy": It is fate that we meet each other. Please forgive me for my mistake. My name is Amy. Where are you from?
Me: My favorite random question: what food would you use to prop a book open and why?
This is mostly a bit of fun, but when I posted this to Facebook Rob Bensinger asked me to post it here: "it's a great example of what folks like Eliezer mean when they claim that GPT-3 is doing 'shallow pattern-matching',... (read 1374 more words →)
Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding
Ok this confirms you haven't understood what I'm claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I'm not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn't matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, or some mix of the two).
From what I can tell from... (read more)
This is a linkpost for: https://www.replicationmarkets.com/
From their sign-up page:
Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$!
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication trials. On average, only about 50% of published social science results replicate, but it’s not a coin toss: four previous markets have been about 75% accurate. We think we can beat 80%, while forecasting 10-100x as many claims.
Join us to improve social and behavioral science, try new kinds of markets and surveys, and earn $$ prizes. (Over $100,000 in total prizes, distributed via Google Pay, among a target pool of 500 forecasters based on accuracy and contributions.)
Please look around, see the Replication Markets Home Page for more details, or click “Sign Up” to join.
Nice!! I don't know much about that moisturizer but the rest looks good to me