(Background: I got interested in anthropics about a week ago. It has tormented my waking thoughts ever since in a cycle of “be confused, develop idea, work it out a bit, realize that it fails, repeat” and it is seriously driving me berserk by this point. While drawing a bunch...
As you may know, on May 6, there will be a large one-day price-matching fundraiser for Bay Area Charities. The relevant details are right here at MIRI's official website. And this is the webpage to visit to donate. For those of you who didn't read the two links above, here's...
Got it. Thank you!
What happens if it only considers the action if it both failed to find "PA+A()=x" inconsistent and found a proof that PA+A()=x proves U()=x? Do an inconsistency check first and only consider/compare the action if the inconsistency check fails.
I had an idea, and was wondering what its fatal flaw was. For UDT, what happens if, instead of proving theorems of the form "actionx --> utilityx" , it proves theorems of the form "PA+actionx |- utilityx"?
At a first glance, this seems to remove the problem of spurious counterfactuals implying any utility value, but there's probably something big I'm missing.
Completed.
This is actually isomorphic to the absent-minded driver problem. If you precommit to going straight, there is a 50/50 chance of being at either one of the two indistinguishable points on the road. If you precommit to turning left, there is a nearly 100% chance of being at the first point on the road (Since you wouldn't continue on to the second road point with that strategy.) It seems like probability can be determined only after a strategy has been locked into place.
Question for AI people in the crowd: To implement Bayes' Theorem, the prior of something must be known, and the conditional likelihood must be known. I can see how to estimate the prior of something, but for real-life cases, how could accurate estimates of P(A|X) be obtained?
Also, we talk about world-models a lot here, but what exactly IS a world-model?
I'd call it a net positive. Along the axis of "Accept all interviews, wind up in some spectacularly abysmal pieces of journalism" and "Only allow journalism that you've viewed and edited", the quantity vs quality tradeoff, I suspect the best place to be would be the one where the writers who know what they're going to say in advance are filtered, and where the ones who make an actual effort to understand and summarize your position (even if somewhat incompetent) are engaged.
I don't think the saying "any publicity is good publicity" is true, but "shoddy publicity pointing in the right direction" might be.
I wonder how feasible it is to figure out journalist quality by reading past articles... Maybe ask people who have been interviewed by the person in the past how it went?
I think there's an important distinction to be made between the different levels of earning to give. Really, there's a spectrum between "donate 5 percent of income" at one end, and "devote existence to resolving issue" at the other end. For humans trying to do the best they can, in fact, trying to scale up too fast can lead to severe burnout. So caring for yourself and having a good life and low stress is a good idea because it guards against burnout. It is better to donate a thousand dollars a month to resolve an issue than three thousand with an 80% chance of burnout. Slowly build up to higher points... (read more)
The reason to make lots of money to give it away is elaborated on here, in the paragraph about the lawyer who wants to clean up the beach.
Summary version: More charities are funding-limited than volunteer-limited, and if you are making a sufficient amount of money, working one extra hour and donating the proceeds from that hour gets more done, saves more people, than using that hour to volunteer. The important part is to actually save people.
Saving people is far more important than giving consistently (If the best way to save people is to give each month, I want to give each month, if the best way to save people is to... (read more)
(Background: I got interested in anthropics about a week ago. It has tormented my waking thoughts ever since in a cycle of “be confused, develop idea, work it out a bit, realize that it fails, repeat” and it is seriously driving me berserk by this point. While drawing a bunch of “thread of personal continuity” diagrams to try to flesh out my next idea, I suspected that it was a fairly nonsensical idea, came up with a thought experiment that showed it was definitely a nonsensical idea, realized I was trying to answer the question “Is there any meaningful sense in which I can expect to wake up as myself tomorrow, rather... (read 1682 more words →)
As you may know, on May 6, there will be a large one-day price-matching fundraiser for Bay Area Charities.
The relevant details are right here at MIRI's official website.
And this is the webpage to visit to donate.
For those of you who didn't read the two links above, here's the important information.
... (read 334 more words →)On May 6, MIRI is participating in Silicon Valley Gives...
Why is this exciting for supporters of MIRI? Many reasons, but here are a few.
- Over $250,000 of matching prizes and funds up for grabs, from sources that normally wouldn't contribute to MIRI:
- Two-to-one dollar match up to $50,000 during the midnight hour.
- $2,000 dollar prize for the nonprofit that has the most individual gift in an
"But the general result is that one can start with an AI with utility/probability estimate pair (u,P) and map it to an AI with pair (u',P) which behaves similarly to (u,P')"
Is this at all related to the Loudness metric mentioned in this paper? https://intelligence.org/files/LoudnessPriors.pdf It seems like the two are related... (in terms of probability and utility blending together into a generalized "importance" or "loudness" parameter)