The Best of LessWrong

When posts turn more than a year old, the LessWrong community reviews and votes on how well they have stood the test of time. These are the posts that have ranked the highest for all years since 2018 (when our annual tradition of choosing the least wrong of LessWrong began).

For the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 we also published physical books with the results of our annual vote, which you can buy and learn more about here.
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Rationality

Eliezer Yudkowsky
Local Validity as a Key to Sanity and Civilization
Buck
"Other people are wrong" vs "I am right"
Mark Xu
Strong Evidence is Common
TsviBT
Please don't throw your mind away
Raemon
Noticing Frame Differences
johnswentworth
You Are Not Measuring What You Think You Are Measuring
johnswentworth
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
Hazard
How to Ignore Your Emotions (while also thinking you're awesome at emotions)
Scott Garrabrant
Yes Requires the Possibility of No
Ben Pace
A Sketch of Good Communication
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Meta-Honesty: Firming Up Honesty Around Its Edge-Cases
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabricated Options
Scott Alexander
Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Split and Commit
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
CFAR Participant Handbook now available to all
johnswentworth
What Are You Tracking In Your Head?
Mark Xu
The First Sample Gives the Most Information
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Shoulder Advisors 101
Scott Alexander
Varieties Of Argumentative Experience
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Toolbox-thinking and Law-thinking
alkjash
Babble
Zack_M_Davis
Feature Selection
abramdemski
Mistakes with Conservation of Expected Evidence
Kaj_Sotala
The Felt Sense: What, Why and How
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Cup-Stacking Skills (or, Reflexive Involuntary Mental Motions)
Ben Pace
The Costly Coordination Mechanism of Common Knowledge
Jacob Falkovich
Seeing the Smoke
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Basics of Rationalist Discourse
alkjash
Prune
johnswentworth
Gears vs Behavior
Elizabeth
Epistemic Legibility
Daniel Kokotajlo
Taboo "Outside View"
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Sazen
AnnaSalamon
Reality-Revealing and Reality-Masking Puzzles
Eliezer Yudkowsky
ProjectLawful.com: Eliezer's latest story, past 1M words
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child
Jacob Falkovich
The Treacherous Path to Rationality
Scott Garrabrant
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
alkjash
More Babble
abramdemski
Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schelling Problems
Raemon
Being a Robust Agent
Zack_M_Davis
Heads I Win, Tails?—Never Heard of Her; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of the Green Rationalists
Benquo
Reason isn't magic
habryka
Integrity and accountability are core parts of rationality
Raemon
The Schelling Choice is "Rabbit", not "Stag"
Diffractor
Threat-Resistant Bargaining Megapost: Introducing the ROSE Value
Raemon
Propagating Facts into Aesthetics
johnswentworth
Simulacrum 3 As Stag-Hunt Strategy
LoganStrohl
Catching the Spark
Jacob Falkovich
Is Rationalist Self-Improvement Real?
Benquo
Excerpts from a larger discussion about simulacra
Zvi
Simulacra Levels and their Interactions
abramdemski
Radical Probabilism
sarahconstantin
Naming the Nameless
AnnaSalamon
Comment reply: my low-quality thoughts on why CFAR didn't get farther with a "real/efficacious art of rationality"
Eric Raymond
Rationalism before the Sequences
Owain_Evans
The Rationalists of the 1950s (and before) also called themselves “Rationalists”
Raemon
Feedbackloop-first Rationality
LoganStrohl
Fucking Goddamn Basics of Rationalist Discourse
Raemon
Tuning your Cognitive Strategies
johnswentworth
Lessons On How To Get Things Right On The First Try
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Optimization

So8res
Focus on the places where you feel shocked everyone's dropping the ball
Jameson Quinn
A voting theory primer for rationalists
sarahconstantin
The Pavlov Strategy
Zvi
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
johnswentworth
Being the (Pareto) Best in the World
alkjash
Is Success the Enemy of Freedom? (Full)
johnswentworth
Coordination as a Scarce Resource
AnnaSalamon
What should you change in response to an "emergency"? And AI risk
jasoncrawford
How factories were made safe
HoldenKarnofsky
All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild
jasoncrawford
Why has nuclear power been a flop?
Zvi
Simple Rules of Law
Scott Alexander
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Zvi
Asymmetric Justice
Jeffrey Ladish
Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction
Elizabeth
Power Buys You Distance From The Crime
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence?
Spiracular
Bioinfohazards
Zvi
Moloch Hasn’t Won
Zvi
Motive Ambiguity
Benquo
Can crimes be discussed literally?
johnswentworth
When Money Is Abundant, Knowledge Is The Real Wealth
GeneSmith
Significantly Enhancing Adult Intelligence With Gene Editing May Be Possible
HoldenKarnofsky
This Can't Go On
Said Achmiz
The Real Rules Have No Exceptions
Lars Doucet
Lars Doucet's Georgism series on Astral Codex Ten
johnswentworth
Working With Monsters
jasoncrawford
Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately?
abramdemski
The Credit Assignment Problem
Martin Sustrik
Inadequate Equilibria vs. Governance of the Commons
Scott Alexander
Studies On Slack
KatjaGrace
Discontinuous progress in history: an update
Scott Alexander
Rule Thinkers In, Not Out
Raemon
The Amish, and Strategic Norms around Technology
Zvi
Blackmail
HoldenKarnofsky
Nonprofit Boards are Weird
Wei Dai
Beyond Astronomical Waste
johnswentworth
Making Vaccine
jefftk
Make more land
jenn
Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Hours In Non-EA Charities
Richard_Ngo
The ants and the grasshopper
So8res
Enemies vs Malefactors
Elizabeth
Change my mind: Veganism entails trade-offs, and health is one of the axes
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World

Kaj_Sotala
Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain
Ben
The Redaction Machine
Samo Burja
On the Loss and Preservation of Knowledge
Alex_Altair
Introduction to abstract entropy
Martin Sustrik
Swiss Political System: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.)
johnswentworth
Interfaces as a Scarce Resource
eukaryote
There’s no such thing as a tree (phylogenetically)
Scott Alexander
Is Science Slowing Down?
Martin Sustrik
Anti-social Punishment
johnswentworth
Transportation as a Constraint
Martin Sustrik
Research: Rescuers during the Holocaust
GeneSmith
Toni Kurz and the Insanity of Climbing Mountains
johnswentworth
Book Review: Design Principles of Biological Circuits
Elizabeth
Literature Review: Distributed Teams
Valentine
The Intelligent Social Web
eukaryote
Spaghetti Towers
Eli Tyre
Historical mathematicians exhibit a birth order effect too
johnswentworth
What Money Cannot Buy
Bird Concept
Unconscious Economics
Scott Alexander
Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success
johnswentworth
Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand
KatjaGrace
Why did everything take so long?
Ruby
[Answer] Why wasn't science invented in China?
Scott Alexander
Mental Mountains
L Rudolf L
[Fiction] A Disneyland Without Children
johnswentworth
Evolution of Modularity
johnswentworth
Science in a High-Dimensional World
Kaj_Sotala
My attempt to explain Looking, insight meditation, and enlightenment in non-mysterious terms
Kaj_Sotala
Building up to an Internal Family Systems model
Steven Byrnes
My computational framework for the brain
Natália
Counter-theses on Sleep
abramdemski
What makes people intellectually active?
Bucky
Birth order effect found in Nobel Laureates in Physics
zhukeepa
How uniform is the neocortex?
JackH
Anti-Aging: State of the Art
Vaniver
Steelmanning Divination
KatjaGrace
Elephant seal 2
Zvi
Book Review: Going Infinite
Rafael Harth
Why it's so hard to talk about Consciousness
Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
Social Dark Matter
Elizabeth
EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem
Malmesbury
The Talk: a brief explanation of sexual dimorphism
moridinamael
The Parable of the King and the Random Process
Henrik Karlsson
Cultivating a state of mind where new ideas are born
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Practical

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AI Strategy

paulfchristiano
Arguments about fast takeoff
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects
Ajeya Cotra
Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover
paulfchristiano
What failure looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
What 2026 looks like
gwern
It Looks Like You're Trying To Take Over The World
Daniel Kokotajlo
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Andrew_Critch
What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)
paulfchristiano
Another (outer) alignment failure story
Ajeya Cotra
Draft report on AI timelines
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Daniel Kokotajlo
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Wei Dai
AI Safety "Success Stories"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down
HoldenKarnofsky
Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors
Richard_Ngo
AGI safety from first principles: Introduction
johnswentworth
The Plan
Rohin Shah
Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Services as General Intelligence
lc
What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like
Eliezer Yudkowsky
MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy
KatjaGrace
Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case
Adam Scholl
Safetywashing
habryka
AI Timelines
evhub
Chris Olah’s views on AGI safety
So8res
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
nostalgebraist
human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
nostalgebraist
larger language models may disappoint you [or, an eternally unfinished draft]
Orpheus16
Speaking to Congressional staffers about AI risk
Tom Davidson
What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds
abramdemski
The Parable of Predict-O-Matic
KatjaGrace
Let’s think about slowing down AI
Daniel Kokotajlo
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Joe Carlsmith
Predictable updating about AI risk
Raemon
"Carefully Bootstrapped Alignment" is organizationally hard
KatjaGrace
We don’t trade with ants
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Technical AI Safety

paulfchristiano
Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty
Andrew_Critch
Some AI research areas and their relevance to existential safety
1a3orn
EfficientZero: How It Works
elspood
Security Mindset: Lessons from 20+ years of Software Security Failures Relevant to AGI Alignment
So8res
Decision theory does not imply that we get to have nice things
Vika
Specification gaming examples in AI
Rafael Harth
Inner Alignment: Explain like I'm 12 Edition
evhub
An overview of 11 proposals for building safe advanced AI
TurnTrout
Reward is not the optimization target
johnswentworth
Worlds Where Iterative Design Fails
johnswentworth
Alignment By Default
johnswentworth
How To Go From Interpretability To Alignment: Just Retarget The Search
Alex Flint
Search versus design
abramdemski
Selection vs Control
Buck
AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion
Eliezer Yudkowsky
The Rocket Alignment Problem
Eliezer Yudkowsky
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
Mark Xu
The Solomonoff Prior is Malign
paulfchristiano
My research methodology
TurnTrout
Reframing Impact
Scott Garrabrant
Robustness to Scale
paulfchristiano
Inaccessible information
TurnTrout
Seeking Power is Often Convergently Instrumental in MDPs
So8res
A central AI alignment problem: capabilities generalization, and the sharp left turn
evhub
Model Organisms of Misalignment: The Case for a New Pillar of Alignment Research
paulfchristiano
The strategy-stealing assumption
So8res
On how various plans miss the hard bits of the alignment challenge
abramdemski
Alignment Research Field Guide
johnswentworth
The Pointers Problem: Human Values Are A Function Of Humans' Latent Variables
Buck
Language models seem to be much better than humans at next-token prediction
abramdemski
An Untrollable Mathematician Illustrated
abramdemski
An Orthodox Case Against Utility Functions
Veedrac
Optimality is the tiger, and agents are its teeth
Sam Ringer
Models Don't "Get Reward"
Alex Flint
The ground of optimization
johnswentworth
Selection Theorems: A Program For Understanding Agents
Rohin Shah
Coherence arguments do not entail goal-directed behavior
abramdemski
Embedded Agents
evhub
Risks from Learned Optimization: Introduction
nostalgebraist
chinchilla's wild implications
johnswentworth
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
zhukeepa
Paul's research agenda FAQ
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Coherent decisions imply consistent utilities
paulfchristiano
Open question: are minimal circuits daemon-free?
evhub
Gradient hacking
janus
Simulators
LawrenceC
Causal Scrubbing: a method for rigorously testing interpretability hypotheses [Redwood Research]
TurnTrout
Humans provide an untapped wealth of evidence about alignment
Neel Nanda
A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of Grokking
Collin
How "Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision" Fits Into a Broader Alignment Scheme
evhub
Understanding “Deep Double Descent”
Quintin Pope
The shard theory of human values
TurnTrout
Inner and outer alignment decompose one hard problem into two extremely hard problems
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Challenges to Christiano’s capability amplification proposal
Scott Garrabrant
Finite Factored Sets
paulfchristiano
ARC's first technical report: Eliciting Latent Knowledge
Diffractor
Introduction To The Infra-Bayesianism Sequence
TurnTrout
Towards a New Impact Measure
LawrenceC
Natural Abstractions: Key claims, Theorems, and Critiques
Zack_M_Davis
Alignment Implications of LLM Successes: a Debate in One Act
johnswentworth
Natural Latents: The Math
TurnTrout
Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector
Jessica Rumbelow
SolidGoldMagikarp (plus, prompt generation)
So8res
Deep Deceptiveness
Charbel-Raphaël
Davidad's Bold Plan for Alignment: An In-Depth Explanation
Charbel-Raphaël
Against Almost Every Theory of Impact of Interpretability
Joe Carlsmith
New report: "Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators
peterbarnett
Labs should be explicit about why they are building AGI
HoldenKarnofsky
Discussion with Nate Soares on a key alignment difficulty
Jesse Hoogland
Neural networks generalize because of this one weird trick
paulfchristiano
My views on “doom”
technicalities
Shallow review of live agendas in alignment & safety
Vanessa Kosoy
The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023
ryan_greenblatt
Improving the Welfare of AIs: A Nearcasted Proposal
#7

Your mind wants to play. Stopping your mind from playing is throwing your mind away. Please do not throw your mind away. Please do not tell other people to throw their mind away. There's a conflict between this and coordinating around reducing existential risk. How do we deal with this conflict?

11Jeremy Gillen
Tsvi has many underrated posts. This one was rated correctly. I didn't previously have a crisp conceptual handle for the category that Tsvi calls Playful Thinking. Initially it seemed a slightly unnatural category. Now it's such a natural category that perhaps it should be called "Thinking", and other kinds should be the ones with a modifier (e.g. maybe Directed Thinking?).  Tsvi gives many theoretical justifications for engaging in Playful Thinking. I want to talk about one because it was only briefly mentioned in the post:  For me, engaging in intellectual play is an antidote to political mindkilledness. It's not perfect. It doesn't work for very long. But it does help. When I switch from intellectual play to a politically charged topic, there's a brief period where I'm just.. better at thinking about it. Perhaps it increases open-mindedness. But that's not it. It's more like increased ability to run down object-level thoughts without higher-level interference. A very valuable state of mind. But this isn't why I play. I play because it's fun. And because it's natural? It's in our nature. It's easy to throw this away under pressure, and I've sometimes done so. This post is a good reminder of why I shouldn't.
#10

Ten short guidelines for clear thinking and collaborative truth-seeking, followed by extensive discussion of what exactly they mean and why Duncan thinks they're an important default guideline.

29Elizabeth
I wish this had been called "Duncan's Guidelines for Discourse" or something like that. I like most of the guidelines given, but they're not consensus. And while I support Duncan's right to block people from his posts (and agree with him far on discourse norms far more than with the people he blocked), it means that people who disagree with him on the rules can't make their case in the comments. That feels like an unbalanced playing field to me. 
18Screwtape
I think this, or something like this, should be in a place of prominence on LessWrong. The Best Of collection might not be the place, but it's the place I can vote on, so I'd like to vote for it here. I used "or something like this" above intentionally. The format of this post — an introduction of why these guidelines exist, short one or two sentence explanations of the guideline, and then expanded explanations with "ways you might feel when you're about to break the X Guideline" — is excellent. It turns each guideline into a mini-lesson, which can be broken out and referenced independently. The introduction gives context for them all to hang together. The format is A+, fighting for S tier. Why "something like this" instead of "this, exactly this" then? Each individual guideline is good, but they don't feel like they're the only set. I can imagine swapping basically any of them other than 0 and 1 out for something different and having something I liked just as much. I still look at 5 ("Aim for convergence on truth, and behave as if your interlocutors are also aiming for convergence on truth") and internally wince. I imagine lots of people read it, mostly agreed with it, but wanted to replace or quibble with one or two of the guidelines, and from reading the comments there wasn't a consensus on which line was out of place.  That seems like a good sign.  It's interesting to me to contrast it with Elements Of Rationalist Discourse. Elements doesn't resonate as much with me, and while some of that is Elements is not laid out as cleanly I also don't agree with the list the same way. And yet, Elements was also upvoted highly. The people yearn for guidelines, and there wasn't a clear favourite. Someday I might try my own hand at the genre, and I still consider myself to owe an expansion on my issues with 5. I'm voting for this to be in the Best Of LessWrong collection. If there was a process to vote to make this or at least the introduction and Guidelines, In Brief in
#21

Rationality training has been very difficult to develop, in large part because the feedback loops are so long, and noisy. Raemon proposes a paradigm where "invent better feedback loops" is the primary focus, in tandem with an emphasis on deliberate practice.

13Screwtape
The thing I want most from LessWrong and the Rationality Community writ large is the martial art of rationality. That was the Sequences post that hooked me, that is the thing I personally want to find if it exists. Therefore, posts that are actually trying to build a real art of rationality (or warn of failed approaches) are the kind of thing I'm going to pay attention to, and if they look like they actually might work I'm going to strongly vote for including them in the Best Of LessWrong collection. Feedbackloop-first Rationality sure looks like an actual attempt at solving the problem. It lays out a strategy, the plan seems like it plausibly might work, and there's followup workshops that suggest some people are actually willing to spend money on this; that's not a clear indicator that it works (people spend money on all kinds of things) but it is significantly more than armchair theorizing.  If Raemon keeps working on this and is successful, I expect we'll see some testable results. If, say, the graduates or regular practitioners turn out to be able to confidently one-shot Thinking Physics style problems while demographically matched people stumble around, that'll be a Hot Dang Look At That Chart result at least in the toy problems. If they go on to solve novel, real world problems, then that's a clear suggestion this works. There's two branches of followup I'd like to see. One, Raemon's already been doing; running more workshops teaching this, teasing out useful subskills to teach, and writing up how how to run exercises and what the subskills are. The second is evaluations. If Raemon's keeping track of students and people who considered going but didn't, I'd love to see a report on how both sets are doing in a year or two. I'm also tempted to ask on future community censuses whether people have done Feedbackloop-first Rationality workshops (["Yes under Raemon", "Yes by other people based on this", "no"] and then throw a timed Thinking Physics-style problem a
#25

1. Don't say false shit omg this one's so basic what are you even doing. And to be perfectly fucking clear "false shit" includes exaggeration for dramatic effect. Exaggeration is just another way for shit to be false.

2. You do NOT (necessarily) know what you fucking saw. What you saw and what you thought about it are two different things. Keep them the fuck straight.

...

14Duncan Sabien (Deactivated)
As a rough heuristic: "Everything is fuzzy; every bell curve has tails that matter." It's important to be precise, and it's important to be nuanced, and it's important to keep the other elements in view even though the universe is overwhelmingly made of just hydrogen and helium. But sometimes, it's also important to simply point straight at the true thing.  "Men are larger than women" is a true thing, even though many, many individual women are larger than many, many individual men, and even though the categories "men" and "women" and "larger" are themselves ill-defined and have lots and lots of weirdness around the edges. I wrote a post that went into lots and lots of careful detail, touching on many possible objections pre-emptively, softening and hedging and accuratizing as many of its claims as I could.  I think that post was excellent, and important. But it did not do the one thing that this post did, which was to stand up straight, raise its voice, and Just. Say. The. Thing. It was a delight to watch the two posts race for upvotes, and it was a delight, in the end, to see the bolder one win.
#33

The blogpost describes a cognitive strategy of noticing the transitions between your thoughts, rather than the thoughts themselves. By noticing and rewarding helpful transitions, you can improve your thinking process. The author claims this leads to clearer, more efficient and worthwhile thinking, without requiring conscious effort. 

#45

Predicting how a ball will roll down a ramp seems like a simple problem, but most people can't get it right on their first try. Analyzing why reveals important lessons that apply to much harder problems like AI alignment.