This needs to be checked for the direction of causality-- maybe people have accurate beliefs about how depletable their willpower is.
That was my first thought, but it appears they accounted for that — "The researchers designed a series of four experiments to test and manipulate Stanford students' beliefs about willpower. After a tiring task, those who believed or were led to believe that willpower is a limited resource performed worse on standard concentration tests than those who thought of willpower as something they had more control over."
This paper (PDF)1 looks more than a little interesting:
I find this interesting, in that the days I get less work done (due to e.g. spending more time on Less Wrong) are often days when I don't eat breakfast right away, and am generally undereating (like today).
References
1. Matthew T. Gailliot, Roy F. Baumeister. (2007) The Physiology of Willpower: Linking Blood Glucose to Self-Control. Personality and Social Psychology Review, Vol. 11, No. 4, 303-327