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SilasBarta comments on It's all in your head-land - Less Wrong
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Why doesn't it make sense? If "good results" in a field tend to be mediocre predictors at best, and then you submit an result with much, much better predictive power than anyone in the field could ever hope for, look at it from the perspective of the reviewer. Wouldn't such an article be strong evidence that you're being tricked or otherwise dealing with someone not worthy of more attention? (Remember the cold fusion case?)
And even if it doesn't make rationalist sense, isn't it understandable why academics wouldn't like being "one-upped" so badly, and so would suppress "too good" results for the wrong reasons?
It's conceivable. But anyone who went into academia for the money is Doing It Wrong, so I tend to give academics the benefit of the doubt that they're enthusiastic about pursuing the betterment of their respective fields.
[It] sounds about as plausible to me as the idea that most viruses are created by Norton to keep them in business.
ETA: hmm... awkward wording. "It" above refers to the preceding hypothesis about academics acting in bad faith.
I have personally attended a session at a conference in which a researcher presented essentially perfect prediction of disease status using a biomarker approach and had his results challenged by an aggressive questioner. The presenter was no dunce, and argued only that the results suggested the line of research was promising. Nevertheless, the questioner felt the need to proclaim disbelief in presented results. No doubt the questioner thought he was pursuing the betterment of his field by doing so.
There's just a point where if someone claims to achieve results you think are impossible, "mistake or deception" becomes more likely to you than "good science".
Easy there. I'm not advocating conspiracy theories. But it's not uncommon for results to be turned down because they're too good. Just off the top of my head, how much attention has the sociology/psychology community given to the PUA community, after the much greater results they've achieved in helping men?
How long did it take for the Everett Many-Worlds Interpretation to be acknowledged by Serious Academics?
Plus, status is addictive. Once you're at the top of the field, you may forget why joined it in the first place.