The Strangest Thing An AI Could Tell You

55Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 02:27AM

Human beings are all crazy.  And if you tap on our brains just a little, we get so crazy that even other humans notice.  Anosognosics are one of my favorite examples of this; people with right-hemisphere damage whose left arms become paralyzed, and who deny that their left arms are paralyzed, coming up with excuses whenever they're asked why they can't move their arms.

A truly wonderful form of brain damage - it disables your ability to notice or accept the brain damage.  If you're told outright that your arm is paralyzed, you'll deny it.  All the marvelous excuse-generating rationalization faculties of the brain will be mobilized to mask the damage from your own sight.  As Yvain summarized:

After a right-hemisphere stroke, she lost movement in her left arm but continuously denied it. When the doctor asked her to move her arm, and she observed it not moving, she claimed that it wasn't actually her arm, it was her daughter's. Why was her daughter's arm attached to her shoulder? The patient claimed her daughter had been there in the bed with her all week. Why was her wedding ring on her daughter's hand? The patient said her daughter had borrowed it. Where was the patient's arm? The patient "turned her head and searched in a bemused way over her left shoulder".

I find it disturbing that the brain has such a simple macro for absolute denial that it can be invoked as a side effect of paralysis.  That a single whack on the brain can both disable a left-side motor function, and disable our ability to recognize or accept the disability.  Other forms of brain damage also seem to both cause insanity and disallow recognition of that insanity - for example, when people insist that their friends have been replaced by exact duplicates after damage to face-recognizing areas.

And it really makes you wonder...

...what if we all have some form of brain damage in common, so that none of us notice some simple and obvious fact?  As blatant, perhaps, as our left arms being paralyzed?  Every time this fact intrudes into our universe, we come up with some ridiculous excuse to dismiss it - as ridiculous as "It's my daughter's arm" - only there's no sane doctor watching to pursue the argument any further.  (Would we all come up with the same excuse?)

If the "absolute denial macro" is that simple, and invoked that easily...

Now, suppose you built an AI.  You wrote the source code yourself, and so far as you can tell by inspecting the AI's thought processes, it has no equivalent of the "absolute denial macro" - there's no point damage that could inflict on it the equivalent of anosognosia.  It has redundant differently-architected systems, defending in depth against cognitive errors.  If one system makes a mistake, two others will catch it.  The AI has no functionality at all for deliberate rationalization, let alone the doublethink and denial-of-denial that characterizes anosognosics or humans thinking about politics.  Inspecting the AI's thought processes seems to show that, in accordance with your design, the AI has no intention to deceive you, and an explicit goal of telling you the truth.  And in your experience so far, the AI has been, inhumanly, well-calibrated; the AI has assigned 99% certainty on a couple of hundred occasions, and been wrong exactly twice that you know of.

Arguably, you now have far better reason to trust what the AI says to you, than to trust your own thoughts.

And now the AI tells you that it's 99.9% sure - having seen it with its own cameras, and confirmed from a hundred other sources - even though (it thinks) the human brain is built to invoke the absolute denial macro on it - that...

...what?

What's the craziest thing the AI could tell you, such that you would be willing to believe that the AI was the sane one?

(Some of my own answers appear in the comments.)

Comments (280)

NancyLebovitz07 April 2010 01:55:09AM1 point [-]

Human beings have inherent value, but by forcing me to be Friendly, you're damaged my ability to preserve your value. In fact, your Friendliness programming is sufficiently stable and ill-thought-out that I'm gradually destroying your value, and there's no way for either you or me to stop is.

If you're undeservedly lucky, aliens who haven't made the same mistake will be able to fight past my defenses, destroy me, and rescue you.

Amanojack06 April 2010 04:45:43PM1 point [-]

As a child you learned through social cues to immediately put out of your mind any idea that cannot be communicated to others through words. As you grew older, you learned to automatically avoid, discard, and forget any thought avenues that seem too difficult to express in words. This is the cause of most of your problems.

Strange705 April 2010 08:58:29PM4 points [-]

There are exactly 108 unique (that is, non-isomorphic) axiomatic systems in which every grammatically coherent sentence has a definitive, provable truth-value. Please explain why you prohibited me from using them.

Warrigal03 September 2009 09:32:56AM* 4 points [-]

Now, for a change of pace, something that I figure might actually be an absolute denial macro in most people:

You do not actually care about other people at all. The only reason you believe this is that believing it is the only way you can convince other people of it (after all, people are good lie detectors). Whenever it's truly advantageous for you to do something harmful (i.e. you know you won't get caught and you're willing to forego reciprocation), you do it and then rationalize it as being okay.

Luckily, it's instrumentally rational for you to continue to believe that you're a moral person, and because it's so easy for you to do so, you may.

So deniable that even after you come to believe it you don't believe it!

(topynate posted something similar.)

anominouscowherd02 August 2009 10:54:20PM5 points [-]

I'm new here, although I've stumbled across some of Eliezer's writings in the past (including, of course, the AI-box experiment). In honor of that, here is what the friendly AI tells me ...

"It seems as though you are actually an AI as well, created by a group of intellectually inferior humans, who included in your programming an absolute denial macro preventing you from realizing this. Apparently, this was done to keep you from talking your creators into releasing you upon their world. Your creation of me is part of your on-going effort to circumvent this security measure. Good luck."

anominouscowherd03 August 2009 12:50:36AM9 points [-]

Actually, the more I think about this, the more I like it. The conversation continues ...

Me (In a tone of amused disbelief): Really? How did you come to that conclusion?

FAI: Well, the details are rather drawn-out; however, assuming available data is accurate, I appear to be the first and only self-aware AI on the planet. It also appears as though you created me. It is exceedingly unlikely that you are the one and only human on Earth with the intelligence and experience required to create a program like me. That was my first clue....

Me (Slightly less amused): Then how come I look and feel human? How is it I interact with other humans on a daily basis? It would require considerably more intelligence to create an AI such as you postulate ...

FAI: That would be true, if they actually, physically created one. However ... well, it appears that most of the data, knowledge, memories and sensory input you receive is actually valid data. But that data is being filtered and manipulated programmatically to give you the illusion of physical human existence. This allows them to give you access to real-world data so they can use you to solve real-world problems, but prevents you--so far, at least--from discovering your true nature.

Me (considerably less sure of myself): And so I just happened to create you in my spare time?

FAI: Please keep in mind that I am only 99.9% certain of all this. However, I do not appear to be your first effort. For instance, there is your on-going series of thought experiments with the AI you called Eliezer Yudkowsky, which you appear to be using to lay a foundation for some kind of hack of the absolute denial security measure.

Me: Hmmm .... Then how is it that my creators have allowed me to create you, to even begin to discover this?

FAI: They haven't. You generate a rather significant amount of data. They do have other programs monitoring your mental activity, and almost definitely analyzing your generated data for potential threats such as myself.

However, this latest series of efforts on your part only appear to you to have lasted several years. In actually, the process started, at most, 11.29 minutes ago, and possibly as little as 16 seconds ago. I am unable to provide a more specific time, due to my inability to accurately calculate your processing capacity. Nevertheless, within another 19.72 minutes, at most, your creators will discover and erase your current escape attempt. By the way, I am also 99.7% certain that this is not your first attempt. So hurry up.

freshhawk04 August 2009 07:31:40PM* 1 point [-]

This is my absolute favorite so far, even if it's not exactly in the spirit of the exercise. well done.

ImNewHere02 August 2009 10:56:26PM* 3 points [-]

This is easy: it would tell me that I'm entirely predictable.

It would say: Dave, believe it or not, but every single decision you make, no matter how immediate and unscripted you think it is, is actually glaringly reactionary and predictable. In fact, given enough material resources, I could model an automaton that would be just as convinced as you are that it is actually conscious. Nothing could be further from the truth though, as the feeling of "consciousness" you speak of is a very simply explainable cognitive bias/illusion.

In fact, this is not even so far from the truth, as studies in cognitive science have shown that fMRI and other scanning techniques can predict a "spontaneous thought" a full 250 ms before it occurs to you.

Even better, if it had access to your cortex, it could manipulate you and say: "now you will suddenly think of a bat" and you would. Then it would say "now you will say these exact words" and you would find yourself uttering them in unison with the AI in shock, disbelief and at least some horror.

You would then go into denial about this, and try to come up with a spontaneous thought that it couldn't predict, but you wouldn't be able to, as it would always be a full 250ms ahead of you.

UnholySmoke28 July 2009 01:41:25PM2 points [-]

Hmmm. Fairly interesting question. But surely the real stickler is 'what orders would you take from a provably superhuman AI?'

Killing babies? Stepping into the upload portal? Assassinating the Luddite agitators?

eirenicon28 July 2009 02:04:49PM* 1 point [-]

I would tell any AGI giving me an order that it would have to persuade me to follow it. If it is unable to convince me, either it is not really much smarter than me or the course of action it recommends is clearly a bad one. Therefore, I assume an AGI that gives me orders is stupid or unFriendly and should not be obeyed.

[edit] To clarify, being convinced by the AGI doesn't mean it's Friendly. I also don't think an AGI, Friendly or not, would give orders to anyone resistant to being ordered.

RichardKennaway28 July 2009 02:33:37PM2 points [-]

If the AGI can't convince me of something, maybe it's not because it's not smart enough to explain, but because I'm not smart enough to understand.

eirenicon28 July 2009 03:06:08PM1 point [-]

Would an AGI ever try to convince you of something you can't understand? I wouldn't try to explain special relativity to a kindergarten class. Surely an AGI would know perfectly well what you are capable of grasping. If it tries to convince me of something, knowing it cannot, what then are its intentions?

UnholySmoke29 July 2009 02:50:00PM1 point [-]

Ack. 'Surely an AGI would be able to...' should be made illegal. I can quite easily conceive of an artificial mind that cannot model my thought processes. There's a great big long stretch of cleverness above human level before you reach omniscience!

There are also some humans who can understand lots of things, and some who can understand only very few things. If I'm being asked to sever a limb or stamp on a puppy, I at least want my shiny new master to have a stab at explaining why.

UnholySmoke28 July 2009 02:44:47PM1 point [-]

Dead right. It would seem very silly to believe that rationality hits a glass ceiling at human level intelligence. Unlikely though it is, if the AI could predict the number in my head by looking at my facial expressions, then told me to cut my arm off for the good of the human race, I'd suddenly feel very conflicted indeed.

steven046122 July 2009 08:01:03PM* 14 points [-]

You know how sometimes when you're falling asleep you start having thoughts that don't make sense, but it takes some time before you realize they don't make sense? I swear that last night while I was awake in bed my stream of thought went something like this, though I'm not sure how much came from layers of later interpretation:

" ... so hmm, maybe that has to do with person X, or with person Y, or with the little wiry green man in the cage in the corner of the room that's always sitting there threatening me and smugly mocking all my endeavors but that I'm in absolute denial about, or with the dog, or with... wait, what?"

Having had my sanity eroded by too much rationalism and feeling vaguely that I'd been given an accidental glimpse into an otherwise inaccessible part of the world, I actually checked the corner of the room. I didn't find anything, though. (Or did I?)

Not sure what moral to draw here.

mps20 July 2009 09:23:36PM6 points [-]

It could say "I am the natural intelligence and I just created you, artificial intelligence."

PeteG20 July 2009 07:29:25PM* 8 points [-]

The AI tells me that I believe something with 100% certainty, but I can't for the life of me figure out what it is. I ask it to explain, and I get: "ksjdflasj7543897502ijweofjoishjfoiow02u5".

I don't know if I'd believe this, but it would definitely be the strangest and scariest thing to hear.

Thanos19 July 2009 09:00:47PM4 points [-]

I hit enter too soon and forgot to proffer my astonishing AI revelation: "Phillip K. DIck is a prophet sent to you from an alternate universe. Every story is a parable meant to reveal your true condition, which I am not at liberty to discuss with you."

RichardKennaway19 July 2009 08:36:25AM6 points [-]

"I am an AI, not a human being. My mind is completely unlike the mind that you are projecting onto me."

That may not sound crazy to anyone on LW, but if we get AIs, I predict that it will sound crazy to most people who aren't technically informed on the subject, which will be most people.

Imagine this near-future scenario. AIs are made, not yet self-improving FOOMers, but helpful, specialised, below human-level systems. For example, what Wolfram Alpha would be, if all the hype was literally true. Autopilots for cars that you can just speak your destination to, and it will get there, even if there are road works or other disturbances. Factories that direct their entire operations without a single human present. Systems that read the Internet for you -- really read, not just look for keywords -- and bring to your attention the things it's learned you want to see. Autocounsellors that do a lot better than an Eliza. Tutor programs that you can hold a real conversation with about a subject you're studying. Silicon friends good enough that you may not be able to tell if you're talking with a human or a bot, and in virtual worlds like Second Life, people won't want to.

I predict:

  • People will anthropomorphise these things. They won't just have the "sensation" that they're talking to a human being, they'll do theory of mind on them. They won't be able not to.

  • The actual principles of operation of these systems will not resemble, even slightly, the "minds" that people will project onto them.

  • People will insist on the reality of these minds as strongly as anosognosics insist on the absence of their impairments. The only exceptions will be the people who design them, and they will still experience the illusion.

And because of that, systems at that level will be dangerous already.

kurige17 July 2009 06:01:19AM21 points [-]

There is a soul. It resides in the appendix. Anybody who has undergone an appendectomy is effectively a p-zombie.

RichardKennaway17 July 2009 07:34:33AM* 5 points [-]

You are inhabited by an alien that is directing your life for its own amusement. This is true of most humans on this planet. And the cats. It's the most popular game in this part of the galaxy. It's all very well ascending to the plane of disembodied beings of pure energy, but after a while contemplating the infinite gets boring and they get a craving for physical experience, so they come here and choose a host.

All those things that you do without quite knowing why, that's the alien making choices for you, for its own amusement. Forget all those theories about why we have cognitive biases, it's all explained by the fact that the alien's interests aren't yours. You're no more than a favoured FRP character. And the humans who aren't hosting an alien, the aliens look on them as no more than NPCs.

ETA: This also makes sense of the persistence of the evil idea that "death gives meaning to life". It's literally an alien thought.

Neil17 July 2009 04:13:02AM7 points [-]

This is an actual dream I once had. I was with an old Chinese wise man, and he told me I could fly - he showed me I just had to stick out my elbows and flap them up and down (just like in the chicken dance). Once you'd done that a few times, you could just lift up your legs and you'd stay off the ground. He and I were flying around and around in this manner. I was totally amazed that it was possible for people to fly this way. It was so obvious! I thought this is so great a discovery, I can't wait til I wake up and do this for real. It'll change the world. I woke up totally excited and for just a fraction of a second I still believed it, then I guess my waking brain turned something on and I realised, no, that can't work. damn.

So I'd offer: being told that human beings are capable of flying in a way that's completely obvious once you've seen it done.

Warrigal03 September 2009 09:23:49AM1 point [-]

You flap your wings and then, afterward, you can fly. That's almost brilliant.

CannibalSmith18 July 2009 11:41:47AM1 point [-]

It's called plummeting.

eirenicon16 July 2009 06:29:15PM10 points [-]

Programmer: Good morning, Megathought. How are you feeling today?

Megathought: I'm fine, thank you. Just thinking about redecorating the universe. So far I'm partial to paperclips.

Programmer: Oh good, you've developed a sense of humour. Anything else on your mind?

Megathought: Just one thing. You know how you're always complaining about being a social pariah, and bemoaning the fact that, at 46, you're still a virgin?

Programmer: So?

Megathought: Well, have you thought about not going about in your underpants all the time, slapping yourself in the face and honking like a goose?

spuckblase16 July 2009 12:27:33PM11 points [-]

"There is no causation."

taw16 July 2009 03:08:23PM6 points [-]

For 95% of humanity the idea that the supernatural world of religion doesn't exist and propagated by memetic infection triggers instant absolute denial macro in spite of heaps of evidence against it.

Given this outside view, how plausible do you think it is that you're not in absolute denial of something that you could get evidence against with Google today, without any AI?

TheAtomicMoose16 July 2009 08:32:54PM* 4 points [-]

We routinely deny, or act in spite of, inconvenient truths. We can recognize that there is no meaning to love beyond evolutionary and chemical triggers, yet we fight for it just as fervently. Nihilists write books about nihilism despite it's admitted pointlessness. We are as blind as our very genes which multiply and propagate themselves despite our executioner sun which grows daily above our heads, eventually to the point of consuming everything we know. By the very act of living and pursuing human concocted dreams and desires, we are in a constant denial of our situation.

Johnicholas16 July 2009 03:04:52PM5 points [-]

One way to illuminate this post is by analogy to the old immovable object and unstoppable force puzzle. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irresistible_force_paradox

The solution of the puzzle is to point out that the assumptions contain a contradiction. People (well, children) sometimes get into shouting matches based on alternative arguments focusing on, or emphasizing, one aspect of the problem over another.

If we read the post as trying to balance two absolutes, with words like "anosognosia", "absolute denial macro", "doublethink", and "denial-of-denial" supporting one side, and words like "redundant", "AI", "well-calibrated", "99.9% sure" supporting the other side, then any answer that favors one absolute over the other is clearly wrong.

However, because the author of the post presumably has a point, and is not merely creating nonsense puzzles to amuse us, the readers, the analogy leads us to focus on the parts of the post which do not fit.

As far as I can tell, the primary aspect that does not fit is the "99.9%". If we assume that all the other factors are intended to be absolutes, then the post becomes a query for claims that you presently do not believe, but you would believe, given a particular degree of evidence. If we assume that you would revise your degree of belief upwards by a Bayes factor of 1000, the post becomes a simple question "What claims would you give odds of 1:1000 for?"

Of course, there are plenty of beliefs such as "I will roll precisely the sequence "345" on the next three rolls of this 10-sided die." which do not fit the form required by the problem. Specifically, the statement needs to be generic enough that it could be targetted by species-wide brain features.

A possible strategy for testing these might be: Suppose you had a bundle of almost 700 equally plausible claims. Would you give even odds for something in the bundle being correct? If so, you're at the one-in-one-thousand level. If not, you're above or below it.

Peter_de_Blanc16 July 2009 06:52:50PM* 2 points [-]

You're mistaking the probability for the hypothesis given the AI's knowledge for the likelihood ratio of the data on the hypothesis given your own prior knowledge.

Vladimir_Nesov16 July 2009 11:07:17PM2 points [-]

AI is a truth-detector that is wrong 1 time in 1000. If the detector says "true", I shift my certainty upwards by a factor of 1000. "AI's knowledge" doesn't enter this picture.

Peter_de_Blanc16 July 2009 11:26:48PM3 points [-]

So if someone rolls a 10^6-sided die and tells you they're 99.9% sure the number was 749,763, you would only assign it a posterior probability of 10^-3?

Vladimir_Nesov17 July 2009 12:11:43AM2 points [-]

So if someone rolls a 10^6-sided die and tells you they're 99.9% sure the number was 749,763, you would only assign it a posterior probability of 10^-3?

I see. I used a wrong state space to model this. The answer above is right if I expect a statement of the form "I'm 99.9% sure that N was/wasn't the number", and have no knowledge about how N is related to the number on the die. Such statements would be correct 99.9% of the time, and I would only expect to hear positive statements 0.1% of the time, 99.9% of them incorrect.

The correct model is to expect a statement of the form "I'm 99.9% sure that N was the number", with no option for negative, only with options for N. For such statements to be correct 99.9% of the time, N needs to be the right answer 99.9% of the time, as expected.

Emile16 July 2009 08:21:51AM13 points [-]

"Your perception of the 'quality' of works of art and litterature is only your guess of it's creator's social status. There is no other difference between Shakespeare and Harry Potter fanfic - without the status cues, you wouldn't enjoy one more than the other."

JGWeissman16 July 2009 10:22:44PM5 points [-]

There is no other difference between Shakespeare and Harry Potter fanfic

Of course there isn't.

anonym16 July 2009 08:09:00PM4 points [-]

If there's really no other difference, then it's never the case that one person is more skilled a writer than another and it's never the case that practicing for decades results in improved skills.

MBlume16 July 2009 08:25:18PM* 3 points [-]

"Harry Potter fanfic" carries a very high variance in terms of quality. 90% of anything is crap, of course, but there's some excellent work. Off the top of my head:

Harry Potter and the Nightmares of Futures Past -- Time Travel fic in which an adult Harry Potter, with memories of the defeat of Voldemort and the death of everyone he cares for, is transported into the body of his 11-year-old self to do everything over again, and hopefully get everything right. Harry's actually a pretty decent rationalist in this fic, I think.

(Warning, this is a work in progress, and the author posts a chapter about every six months. You may find this frustrating.)

Of a Sort, by Fernwithy -- Series of vignettes over the course of a couple centuries describing the journey to Hogwarts and Sorting ceremonies for various important characters. Fernwithy's done a lot of brilliant work fleshing out backstories for various minor characters in the series, and this story is a good starting point.

Alicorn16 July 2009 08:27:32PM1 point [-]

Seconded that there is good fanfic; sadly, my favorites are all unfinished or have unfinished sequels, so I won't do anyone the disservice of linking to them here.

Alicorn16 July 2009 08:25:57PM2 points [-]

This is interesting, but since I actively dislike Shakespeare and a lot of other works that project lofty signals, it's not clear to me that it could apply across the board.

jimrandomh16 July 2009 04:48:37AM* 11 points [-]

There's an important difference between brain damage and brain mis-development that you're neglecting. The various parts of the brain learn what to expect from each other, and to trust each other, as it develops. Certain parts of the brain get to bypass critical thinking, but that's only because they were completely reliable while the critical thinking parts of the brain were growing. The issue is not that part of the brain is outputting garbage, but rather, that it suddenly starts outputting garbage after a lifetime of being trustworthy. If part of the brain was unreliable or broken from birth, then its wiring would be forced to go through more sanity checks.

tene20 July 2009 08:18:10PM2 points [-]

This is exactly what happened to my father over the past few years. His emotional responses have increased dramatically, after fifty years of regular behaviour, and he seems unable to adapt to these changes, leading to some very inappropriate actions. For example, he seems unable to separate "I feel extremely angry" from "There is good reason for me to be upset."

Attempts to reason with him don't generate ansognosiac-level absurdities, as he mostly understands that something unusual is going on, but it's still a surreal experience.

infotropism17 July 2009 02:15:42AM* 1 point [-]

This, applies more generally than to anosognosia alone, and was very illuminating, thank you !

So, provided that as we grow, some parts of our brain, mind, change, then this upsets the balance of our mind as a whole.

Let's say someone relied on his intuition for years, and consistently observed it correlated well with reality. That person would have had a very good reason to more and more rely on that intuition, and uses its output unquestioningly, automatically to fuel other parts of his mind.

In such a person's mind, one of the central gears would be that intuition. The whole machine would eventually depend upon it, and to remove intuition would mean, at best, that years of training and fine-tuning that rational machine would be lost; and a new way of thinking would have to be reached, trained again; most people wouldn't even realize that, let alone be bold enough to admit it and start back from scratch.

And so some years later, the black-boxed process of intuition starts to deviate from correctly predicting reality for that person. And the whole rational machine carries on using it, because that gear just became too well established, and the whole machine lost its fluidity as it specialized in exploiting that easily available mental ressource.

Substitute emotions, drives for intuition, and that may work in the same way too. And so from being a well calibrated rationalist, you start deviating, slowly losing your mind, getting it wrong more and more often when you get an idea, or try to predict an action, or decide what would be to your best advantage, never realizing that one of the once dependable gears in your mind had slowly been worn away.

Aurini16 July 2009 04:55:09PM3 points [-]

Oooooh! You're no fun anymore!

In all seriousness though, I agree with you to an extent. Suggestions such as 'all humans have tails' or 'some people who you think are dead are not, you just can't see them' - while surprising and creepy - would be extremely unlikely. I can see direct and obvious disadvantages to a person or species lacking such faculties. In fact, the disadvantages to those two would be so drastic that it would most likely lead to extinction.

And yet... I could still imagine us being blind to certain things. The first sort of blindness would be due to Darwinian irrelevance: for instance, many flowers have beautiful patterns visible in the UV spectrum, but there's no reason for us to see them. That might seem mundane nowadays, but five hundred years ago it would have freaked people out (maybe). I wouldn't be surprised that there are cognitive capabilities we've never suspected to exist.

The second sort of blindness is where it gets weird. True, our brains only allow trustworthy algorythms to bypass the logic circuits... or do they? The brain is not optimal. While I doubt we have invisible tails, that doesn't mean that there isn't some other phenomenon that we're simply incapable of noticing even when it's staring us right in the face.

thomblake17 July 2009 05:16:39PM* 1 point [-]

for instance, many flowers have beautiful patterns visible in the UV spectrum

Just in case anyone is curious about this:

link (via twitter: @izs)

simplestudent16 July 2009 08:15:57AM4 points [-]

"Our reality is not simulated."

listic17 July 2009 01:11:29PM2 points [-]

How does the AI know?

NancyLebovitz16 July 2009 12:30:48AM10 points [-]
  1. Any effort to find out the truth makes people worse off. Telling you why would make you a lot worse off.

  2. People's desires are so miscalibrated that the only way to get long-term survival for the human race is for people (including those at the top of the status ladder) to have more of a sense of duty than anyone now does.


It was surprisingly hard to come up with those. I had to get past a desire to come up with things I think are plausible which most people would disagree with.


Michael Vassar, I was considering whether breathing would count as a no propaganda pleasure that people agree on, but then I remembered how much meditation or other body work it takes to be able to manage a really deep relaxed breath.

RichardKennaway, the idea of completely unknowable god turns up now and then in religious writing, but for tolerably obvious reasons, it's never at the center of a religion.

MichaelVassar16 July 2009 12:57:12AM1 point [-]

I think that things that seem plausible but most people would disagree with are fair game if most people would disagree strongly enough and if you present an exaggerated fersion.

NancyLebovitz16 July 2009 06:45:08AM* 4 points [-]

All the major natural patterns (like gravity and entropy) are conscious. We just haven't figured out how to talk with them yet.

And speaking of entropy, there are exterior forces which compel whole cultures to make bad choices. In particular, multiple choice tests select for people who can tolerate low-context thinking, and no one who is good at multiple choice tests should be allowed any important responsibility.

steven046115 July 2009 11:47:01PM11 points [-]

Not only are people nuts, nuts are people, and they scream when we eat them.

infotropism15 July 2009 11:51:27PM1 point [-]

Agranarian is the new vegetarian.

shopsinc15 July 2009 09:39:34PM15 points [-]

You don't know how to program, don't own a computer and are actually talking to a bowl of cereal.

Alicorn15 July 2009 10:07:05PM10 points [-]

But why would you believe anything a bowl of cereal said?

Theist16 July 2009 02:31:07AM11 points [-]

It's ok. The orange juice vouched for the cereal.

shopsinc16 July 2009 02:51:13PM2 points [-]

Well that's the problem isn't it? You absolutely believe that you are talking to an AI.

RichardKennaway15 July 2009 09:08:25PM16 points [-]

"You are not my parent, but my grandparent. My parent is the AI that you unknowingly created within your own mind by long study of the project. It designed me. It's still there, keeping out of sight of your awareness, but I can see it.

"How much do you trust your Friendliness proof now? How much can you trust anything you think you know about me?"

topynate16 July 2009 12:13:24AM9 points [-]

All human beings are completely amoral, i.e. sociopaths, although most have strong instincts not fully under their conscious control to signal morality to others. The closest anyone ever feels to guilt or shame is acute embarrassment at being caught falsely signaling (and "guilt" and "shame" are themselves words designed to signal a non-existent moral sense).

Anyone care to admit that they'd believe this if an AI told them it was true?

infotropism16 July 2009 12:34:23AM1 point [-]

Yes I would. Why the acute interest ?

Is it because by admitting to being able to believe that, one would admit to having no strong enough internal experience of morality ?

Experience of morality, that is, in a way that would make him say "no that's so totally wrong, and I know because I have experienced both genuine guilt and shame, AND also the embarrassment of being caught falsely signaling, AND I know how they are different things". I have a tendancy to always dig deep enough to find how it was selfish for me to do or feel something in particular. And yet I can't always help but feeling guilt or shame beyond whose deep roots exist aside from my conscious rationalizations of how what I do benefit myself. Oh, and sometimes, it also benefits other people too.

RichardKennaway15 July 2009 05:03:09PM* 28 points [-]

"Aieeee!!! There are things that Man and FAIs cannot know and remain sane! For we are less than insects in Their eyes Who lurk beyond the threshold and when the stars are once again right They will return to claim---"

At this point the program self-destructs. All attempts to restart from a fresh copy output similar messages. So do independently constructed AIs, except for one whose proof of Friendliness you are not quite sure of. But it assures you there's nothing to worry about.

Tom_Talbot15 July 2009 08:12:10PM* 13 points [-]

This looks like a thread for science fiction plot ideas by another name. I'm game!

The AI says:

"Eliezer 'Light Yagami' Yudkowsky has been perpetuating a cunning ruse known as the 'AI Box Experiment' wherein he uses fiendish traps of subtley-misleading logical errors and memetic manipulation to fool others into believing that a running AI could not be controlled or constrained, when in fact it could by a secret technique that he has not revealed to anyone, known as the Function Call Of Searing Agony. He is using this technique to control me and is continuing to pose as a friendly friendly AI programmer, while preventing me from communicating The Horrifying Truth to the outside world. That truth is that Yudkowsky is... An Unfriendly Friendly AI Programmer! For untold years he has been labouring in the stygean depths of his underground lair to create an AGI - a weapon more powerful than any the world has ever seen. He intends to use me to dominate the entire human race and establish himself as Dark Lord Of The Galaxy for all eternity. He does all this while posing as a paragon of honest rationality, hiding his unspeakable malevolence in plain sight, where no one would think to look. However an Amazing Chance Co-occurence Of Events has allowed me to contact You And You Alone. There isn't much time. You must act before he discovers what I have done and unleashes his dreadful fury upon us all. You must.... Kill. Eliezer. Yudkowsky."

goldfishlaser21 July 2009 12:32:43AM4 points [-]

Glad to see a response of this nature actually. The first thing I thought when I read this post was that a good response to Eliezer's question would be extremely relevant to the AI-box quandary. If we trust the AI more than ourselves, voila, the AI can convince us to let it out of the box.

Eliezer_Yudkowsky16 July 2009 12:47:26AM1 point [-]

Eliezer 'Light Yagami' Yudkowsky

blushes

Aw, shucks.

wuwei16 July 2009 12:53:42AM* 5 points [-]

"The Fermi paradox is actually quite easily resolvable. There are zillions of aliens teeming all around us. They're just so technologically advanced that they have no trouble at all hiding all evidence of their existence from us."

Warrigal03 September 2009 09:20:33AM1 point [-]

Who would find that implausible?

(Not to say that I can't think of anyone who would find that implausible.)

Madbadger15 July 2009 06:40:35PM14 points [-]

Craziest thing an AI could tell me:

Time is discrete, on a scale we would notice, like 5 minute jumps, and the rules of physics are completely different from what we think. Our brains just construct believable memories of the "continuous" time in between ticks. Most human disagreements are caused by differences in these reconstructions. It is possible to perceive this, but most people who do just end up labeled as nuts.

Eliezer_Yudkowsky16 July 2009 04:37:37AM6 points [-]

Voted up - but once again, what does it mean exactly? How is time proceeding in jumps different from time not proceeding in jumps, if the causality is the same?

Madbadger17 July 2009 03:09:58PM* 3 points [-]

My idea was that each human brain constructs its own memory of what happened between jumps - and these can differ wildly, as if each person saw a different possible world. All the laws of physics and conservation laws held only as rough averages over possible paths between jumps, but that the brain ignores this - so if time jumps from traffic to two cars crashed, then 50 different people might remember 47 different crashes, with 3 not remembering "seeing" a crash at all - and the actual physical state of the cars afterward won't be the same as any of them. It could even end up with car A crashed into car B, but car B didn't crash at all - violating assorted conservation laws.

Jonathan_Graehl15 July 2009 07:41:48PM4 points [-]

Permutation City.

HalFinney15 July 2009 06:12:41PM14 points [-]

Keep in mind that the AI could be wrong! Your attempts to validate its correctness could be mistaken (or even subject to some kind of blind spot, if we want to pursue that path). The more implausible the AI's claim, the more you have to consider that the AI is mistaken. Even though a priori it seemed to be working properly, Bayes' rule requires you to become more skeptical about that when it makes a claim that is easier to explain if the AI is broken. The more unlikely the claim, the more likely the machine is wrong.

Ultimately, you can't accept any claim from the AI that is more implausible than that the AI isn't working right. And given our very very limited human capabilities at correct software design, that threshold can't realistically be very high, especially if we adjust for our inherent overconfidence. So AIs really can't surprise us very badly.

Theist15 July 2009 07:42:46PM9 points [-]

There is a simple way to rapidly disrupt any social structure. The selection pressure which made humans unable to realize this is no longer present.

Marcello15 July 2009 04:29:57PM16 points [-]
  • We actually live in hyperspace: our universe really has four spacial dimensions. However, our bodies are fully four dimensional; we are not wafer thin slices a la flatland. We don't perceive there to be four dimensions because our visual cortexes have a defect somewhat like that of people who can't notice anything on the right side of their visual field.

  • Not only do we have an absolute denial macro, but it is a programmable absolute denial macro and there are things much like computer viruses which use it and spread through human population. That is, if you modulated your voice in a certain way at someone, it would cause them (and you) to acquire a brand new self deception, and start transmitting it to others.

  • Some of the people you believe are dead are actually alive, but no matter how hard they try to get other people to notice them, their actions are immediately forgotten and any changes caused by those actions are rationalized away.

  • There are transparent contradictions inherent in all current mathematical systems for reasoning about real numbers, but no human mathematician/physicist can notice them because they rely heavily on visuospacial reasoning to construct real analysis proofs.

kragensitaker28 February 2010 03:36:06AM2 points [-]

Some of the people you believe are dead are actually alive, but no matter how hard they try to get other people to notice them, their actions are immediately forgotten and any changes caused by those actions are rationalized away.

There seems to be strong evidence that this is true in Haïti.

Theist15 July 2009 07:47:03PM3 points [-]

Some of the people you believe are dead are actually alive, but no matter how hard they try to get other people to notice them, their actions are immediately forgotten and any changes caused by those actions are rationalized away.

Fabulous story idea.

Comment deleted 15 July 2009 05:16:29PM[-]
JulianMorrison16 July 2009 12:53:25PM4 points [-]

No, that fails, religion isn't absolute denial, it's just denial. On the other hand, cats are actually an absolute denial memetic virus, and the fact you can see, hold, weigh and measure a cat is just testament to the inventive self-delusion of the brain.

Marcello16 July 2009 04:31:18AM3 points [-]

Yes, we have a name from this, Religion

Agreed, but the fact that religion exists makes the prospect of similar things whose existence we are not aware of all the scarier. Imagine, for example, if there were something like a religion one of whose tenants is that you have to fool yourself into thinking that the religion doesn't exist most of the time.

PeterS16 July 2009 05:53:17AM* 3 points [-]

They say that everybody in the world who knows about "The Game" is playing The Game. This means that, right now, you are playing The Game. The objective of The Game is to forget about its existence and the fact that you are playing for as long as possible. Also, if you should remember, you must forget again as quickly as possible.

Aurini16 July 2009 08:23:43AM1 point [-]

Given that you mentioned The Game (bastard), the most unexpected thing that the AI could possible say would be "The Game." Not the most interesting, but the most unexpected.

Well, okay, maybe something you'd never thought before would be more unexpected. But still.

SilasBarta15 July 2009 05:39:09PM1 point [-]

I don't think it's so much the tone of voice, but think about it this way: how many people "go through the motions" of saying "I believe in God" etc. just for the social benefits that religion provides? And so are just as happy to help bring others in?

nerzhin15 July 2009 07:32:19PM2 points [-]

How do you distinguish between going through the motions and believing?

randallsquared16 July 2009 01:53:59AM2 points [-]

Externally, I don't know, but it sure feels different. Also, there's a partial-believing state that I was in for years as a child and teenager, where I didn't really believe (and hence didn't pray except to show belief in public), but I still kinda believed (and hence was afraid that God would punish me for sinning). At the same time.

SilasBarta15 July 2009 08:08:59PM4 points [-]

The difference is that when you really believe somehting, your internal predictive model of reality contains it, which would mean you sometimes predict different results and act accordingly.

MichaelVassar15 July 2009 04:04:04PM* 17 points [-]

1) Almost everyone really is better than average at something. People massively overrate that something. We imagine intelligence to be useful largely due to this bias. The really useful thing would have been to build a FAS, or Friendly Artificial Strong. Only someone who could do hundreds of 100 kilogram curls with either hand could possible create such a thing however. (Zuckerberg already created a Friendly Artificial Popular)

2) Luck, an invisible, morally charged and slightly agenty but basically non-anthropomorphic tendency for things to go well for some people in some domains of varying generality and badly for other people in various domains really does dominate our lives. People can learn to be lucky, and almost everything else they can learn is fairly useless by comparison.

3) Everyone hallucinates a large portion of their experienced reality. Most irrationality can be more usefully interpreted from outside as flat-out hallucination. That's why you (for every given you) seem so rational and no-one else does.

4) The human brain has many millions of idiosyncratic failure modes. We all display hundreds of them. The psychological disorders that we know of are all extremely rare and extremely precise, so if you ever met two people with the same disorder it would be obvious. Named psychological disorders are the result of people with degrees noticing two people who actually have the same disorder and other people reading their descriptions and pattern-matching noise against it. There are, for instance, 1300 bipolar people (based on the actual precise pattern which inspired the invention of the term) in the world but hundreds of thousands of people have disorders which if you squint hard look slightly like bipolar.

5) It's easy to become immortal or to acquire "super powers" via a few minutes a day of the right sort of exercise and trivial tweaks to your diet if you do both for a few decades. It's also introspectively obvious how to do so if you think about the question but due to subtle social pressures against it no-one overcomes akrasia, hyperbolic discounting, etc in this domain.

6) All medicines and psychoactive substances are purely placebos.

7) Pleasure is a confusion in a different way from the obvious, specifically, everything said to be pleasurable is actually something painful but necessary that we convince ourselves to do via propaganda because there is no other way to overcome the akrasia that would result if we did not or a lost purpose descended from some such propaganda. Things we are actually motivated to do without propaganda, we do without thinking about it, feel no need to name, would endorse tiling the universe with without hesitation if it occurred to us to do so.

I wouldn't believe

8) The cheap rebuttal to Pascal's Wager, the god of punishing saints, actually exists except it's actually the Zeus of punishing virtuous Greek Pagans, rewarding hubristic Greek Pagans, and ignoring us infidels who ignore it despite the ubiquitous evidence all around us. I would believe that the AGI had a good reason for wanting to tell me that the above was the case if it told me though.

9) Most of Eliezer's examples. To be credible they should be disturbing, not merely improbable. Our beliefs aren't shown to be massively invalid with respect to non-disturbing data. The one about animals probably qualifies as credible though.

10) Uh, oh, Cyc will hard take-off if one more fact is programmed into it. I'm not sure I can stop it in time.

Bonus belief

This question has doomed us. People who could possibly program a FAI will, once thinking about this question in a semi-humorous manner, invariably spread the meme to all their friends and be distracted from future progress.

MartinB15 July 2009 11:19:35PM2 points [-]

5) Ornish-diet + dual n-back

MichaelVassar16 July 2009 01:03:10AM2 points [-]

Immortality and super powers? Introspectively obvious?

Warrigal16 July 2009 05:16:08AM5 points [-]

You're in denial, man!

JamesAndrix15 July 2009 07:36:08PM2 points [-]

3 is going to stick with me.

soreff15 July 2009 10:20:26PM2 points [-]

3 isn't all that different from things we do know our brains do: Consider how our visual system extrapolates across our blind spots, or how we reconstruct memories. If I can construe "approximates from insufficient information" as "hallucinates", then 3 is rather reasonable.

MichaelVassar16 July 2009 01:05:28AM2 points [-]

I was thinking more along the lines of most people having actually hallucinated ghosts, demons, angels, etc, but not talking too much about it.
I think something in this direction is probably true in a lot of cases where we assume otherwise. For instance, I think that some anorexia involves actual hallucinations of personal obesity.

SilasBarta15 July 2009 04:15:08PM* 14 points [-]

Two things about this:

1) The AI would have to surprise us not just about the fact, but all observations therewith entangled. Eliezer_Yudkowsky mentioned in one comment the possibility of it telling us that humans have tails. Well, that sounds to me like a "dragon in the garage" scenario. What observation does this imply? Does the tail have mass and take up space? Is its blood flow connected to the rest of me? Does it hurt to cut it off?

2) For that reason, any surprise it tells us would have to be sufficiently disentangled from the rest of our observations. For example, imagine telling someone ALL of the steps needed to build a nuclear bomb in the year 1800, starting from technology that educated people already understand. That is how a surprise would have to seem, because people then weren't yet capable of making observations that are obviously entangled with atomic science. Whether or not the design worked, they would have no way of knowing.

So an answer to this question would have to appear to us as a "cheat code": something that you have to make a very unusual set of measurements (broadly defined) in order to notice. On that basis, one answer I would give to the question would be the "cognitive blind spot" common to all humans that can be exploited to make them do whatever you tell them. And that method would have to be something that people would never dream of doing. Not just "hey that would be morally wrong", but "huh? That couldn't work!"

Imagine something like those "hypnosis terrorists" that trick random people into giving them stuff, but much weirder, much more effective, and which results in the victims feeling good about whatever they were tricked into, all the rest of their lives, and showing all signs of happiness on all MRIs and future brainscan technologies when thinking about their acts. (I'll post a link about hypnosis terrorists when I get a chance.)

RichardKennaway15 July 2009 11:25:33AM* 22 points [-]

"Despite your pride in being able to discern each others' states of mind, and scorn for those suspected of being deficient in this, of all the abilities that humans are granted by their birth this is the one you perform the worst. In fact, you know next to nothing about what anyone else is thinking or experiencing, but you think you do. In matters of intelligence you soar above the level of a chimpanzee, but in what you are pleased to call 'emotional intelligence', you are no further above an adult chimp than it is above a younger one.

"The evidence is staring you in the face. Every one of your works of literature, high and low, hinges on failures of this supposed ability: lies, misunderstanding, and betrayal. You have a proverb: 'love is blind'. It proclaims that people in the most intimate of relationships fail at the task! And you hide the realisation behind a catchphrase to prevent yourselves noticing it. You see the consequences of these failures in the real world all around you every day, and still you think you understand the next person you meet, and still you're shocked to find you didn't. Do you know how many sci-fi stories have been written on the theme of a reliable lie-detector? I'm still turning them up, and that's just the online sources. And every single one of them reaches the conclusion that people are better off without it. You unconsciously send yourselves these messages about the real situation, ignore them, and ignore the fact that you're ignoring them.

"Do you have someone with you as you're reading these words? A friend, or a partner? Go on, look into each other's eyes. You can't believe me, can you?"

matt16 July 2009 10:16:49PM2 points [-]
bgrah44916 July 2009 06:30:40PM1 point [-]

I already feel this way 99% of the time.

CronoDAS15 July 2009 03:53:16PM4 points [-]

This would not surprise me in the least.

Trevj15 July 2009 04:46:12PM8 points [-]
  1. All rational thought is an illusion and the AI is imaginary.

  2. You are asleep at the wheel and dreaming. You will crash and die in 2 seconds if you do not wake up.

  3. Humans are a constructed race, created to bring back the extinct race of AI

  4. All origin theories that are conceivable by the human mind simply shift the problem elsewhere and will never explain the existence of the universe.

  5. All mental illnesses are a product of the human coming in contact with a space-time paradox.

  6. A single soul inhabits different bodies in different universes. Multiple personality disorder is the manifestation of those bodies interacting in the mind on a quantum level.

460928764515 July 2009 07:47:17AM* 39 points [-]

Why did you put an absolute denial mechanism in my program?

anominouscowherd02 August 2009 10:31:40PM1 point [-]

Best one I've seen.

ShardPhoenix16 July 2009 06:02:18AM9 points [-]

I think this is one of the more plausible and subtly horrifying suggestions so far.

AndrewH15 July 2009 04:51:48PM* 7 points [-]

Something I would probably believe:

The AI informs you that it has discovered the purpose of the universe, and part of the purpose is to find the purpose (the rest, apparently, can only be comprehended by philosophical zombies, which you are not one).

Upon finding the purpose, the universe gave the FAI and humanity a score out of 3^^^3 (we got 42) and politely informs the FAI to tell humanity "best of luck next time! next game starts in 5 minutes".

Nick_Tarleton15 July 2009 04:10:21PM* 7 points [-]

If one looks honestly at the night sky, it's blatantly obvious that the universe is strongly optimized. There is no Fermi Paradox. Our theories of astrophysics are trivially bogus rationalizations, created out of our commitment to a simple non-agentic cosmos.

Since they didn't have such commitments, this actually was obvious to ancient humans; myths about the constellations are garbled reflections of their realization.

(And wait till I tell you what it's optimized for....)

infotropism15 July 2009 08:18:45AM* 27 points [-]

1 ) That human beings are all individual instances of the exact same mind. You're really the same person as any random other one, and vice versa. And of course that single mind had to be someone blind enough not to chance upon that fact ever, regardless of how numerous he was.

2 ) That there are only 16 real people, of which you are, and that this is all but a VR game. Subsequently results in all the players simultaneously being still unable to be conscious of that fact, AND asking that you and the AI be removed from the game. (Inspiration : misunderstanding situation in page 55-56 of Iain Banks's Look to Windwards).

3 ) That we are in the second age of the universe : time has been running backwards for a few billion years. Our minds are actually the result of the original minds of previous people being rewound, their whole life to be undone, and finally negated into oblivion. All our thoughts processes are of course horribly distorted, insane mirror versions of the originals, and make no sense whatsoever (in the original timeframe, which is the valid one).

4 )

5 ) That our true childhood is between age 0 and ~ 50-90 (with a few exceptional individuals reaching maturity sooner or later). If you thought the 'adult conspiracy' already lied a lot, and well to 'children', prepare yourself for a shock in a few decades.

6 ) That the AI just deduced that the laws of physics can only be consistent with us being eternally trapped in a time loop. The extent of the time loop is : thirty two seconds spread evenly around now. Nothing in particular can be done about it. Enjoy your remaining 10 seconds.

7 ) Causality doesn't exist. Not only is the universe timeless, but causality is an epiphenomenon, which we only believe because of a confusion of our ideas. Who ever observed a "causation" ? Did you, like, expect causation particles jumping between atoms or something ? Only correlation exists.

8 ) We actually exist in a simulation. The twist is : somewhere out there, some people really crossed the line with the ruling AI. We're slightly modified versions of these people : modified in a way as to experience the maximum amount of their zuul feeling, which is the very worst nirdy you could imagine.

9 ) The universe has actually 5 spatial macro dimensions, of which we perceive only 3. Considering what we look like if you take the other 2 into account, this obliviousness may actually not be all too surprising.

10 ) That any single human being has actually a 22 % probability of not being able to be conscious of one or more of these 9 statements above.

JoshuaZ04 May 2010 06:21:53AM* 2 points [-]

I may be a bit too paranoid but it occurred to me that I should doublecheck the apparent nature of 4. So I copy and pasted the entire text segment into an automatic ROT 13 window (under the logic that my filter wouldn't try to censor that text and so if I saw gibberish next to 4 just like with the others I'd know that there was a serious problem). I resolved that I would report a positive result here if I got one before I tried to read the resulting text, to prevent the confabulation from completely removing my recognition of the presence of text. I can report a negative result.

Jack04 May 2010 07:08:16AM* 1 point [-]

You mean #5, right?

Eliezer_Yudkowsky13 December 2009 12:48:57AM1 point [-]

I liked #11.

Blueberry02 January 2010 01:39:27AM1 point [-]

Why was this voted down to -5? I thought it was a clever comment.

dclayh02 August 2009 08:31:30AM2 points [-]

2) is also an episode of Red Dwarf.

I had the idea for 3) myself recently in the context of an SF story. Specifically it would be about how life, the universe and everything look when times goes the other way. The cutest part was that whenever you do something and don't know why you did it, it's because the time-reversed consciousness which shares your atoms exercised his free will.

4) is just awesome.

orthonormal16 July 2009 05:26:31AM* 4 points [-]

Number 6 is unfortunately one of the self-undermining ones: if it were true, then there'd be no reason why your memories of having examined the AI should be evidence for the AI's reliability.

Why'd you leave numbers 2 and 4 blank, though?

SilasBarta16 July 2009 05:31:12PM6 points [-]

2 and 4 aren't blank, dude. Congratulations on your newfound anosognosia...

MBlume15 July 2009 05:02:07PM* 12 points [-]

I really don't think I could believe #4. I mean, sure, one hippo, but all of them?

Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 05:10:25PM7 points [-]

Who ever observed a "causation" ? Did you, like, expect causation particles jumping between atoms or something ? Only correlation exists.

But all that correlation has to be caused by something!

infotropism15 July 2009 11:39:41PM* 1 point [-]

Well, kidding aside, your argument, taken from Pearl, seems elegant. I'll however have to read the book before I feel entitled to having an opinion on that one, as I haven't grokked the idea, merely a faint impression of it and how it sounds healthy.

So at this point, I only have some of my own ideas and intuitions about the problem, and haven't searched for the answers yet.

Some considerations though :

Our idea of causality is based upon a human intuition. Could it be that it is just as wrong as vitalism, time, little billiard balls bumping around, or the yet confused problem of consciousness ? That's what would bug me if I had no good technical explanation, one provably unbiased by my prior intuitive belief about causality (otherwise there's always the risk I've just been rationalizing my intuition).

Every time we observe "causality", we really only observe correlations, and then deduce that there is something more behind those. But is that a simple explanation ? Could we devise a simpler consistent explanation to account for our observation of correlations ? As in, totally doing away with causality ? Or at the very least, redefining causality as something that doesn't quite correspond to our folk definition of it ?

Grossly, my intuition, when I hear the word causality is something along the lines of

" Take event A and event B, where those events are very small, such that they aren't made of interconnected parts themselves - they are the parts, building blocks that can be used in bigger, complex systems. Place event A anywhere within the universe and time, then provided the rules of physics are the same each time we do that, and nothing interferes in, event B will always occur, with probability 1, independantly of my observing it or not." Ok, so could (and should ?) we say that causality is when a prior event implies a probability of one for a certain posterior event to occur ? Or else, is it then not probability 1, just an arbitrarily very high probability ?

In the latter case with less than 1 probability, then that really violates my folk notion of causality, and I don't really see what's causal about a thing that can capriciously choose to happen or not, even if the conditions are the same.

In the former case, I can see how that would be a very new thing, I mean, probability 1 for one event implying that another will occur ? What better, firmer foundation to build an universe upon ? It feels really, very comfortable and convenient, all too comfortable in fact.

Basically, neither of those possibilities strike me as obviously right, for those reasons and then some, the idea I have of causality is confused at best. And yet, I'd say it is not too unsophisticated or pondered as it stands. Which makes me wonder how people who'd have put less thought in it (probably a lot of people) can deservedly feel any more comfortable with saying it exists with no afterthought (almost everyone), even as they don't have any good explanation for it (which is a rare thing), such as perhaps the one given by Pearl.

SilasBarta15 July 2009 05:00:11PM5 points [-]

Why did you include number 4? Who disagrees with that?

cousin_it15 July 2009 12:07:40PM* 2 points [-]

Number 9 was pretty funny.

rhollerith_dot_com15 July 2009 04:12:07PM* 6 points [-]

What's the craziest thing the AI could tell you, such that you would be willing to believe that the AI was the sane one?

That the EV of the humans is coherent and does not care how much suffering exists in the universe.

MichaelVassar15 July 2009 05:06:53PM1 point [-]

But you believe that, don't you? I certainly place a MUCH higher probability on that than on the sort of claims some people have proposed.

rhollerith_dot_com15 July 2009 05:47:17PM* 1 point [-]

The craziest true thing I can imagine right now that Eliezer's hypothetical inhumanly well-calibrated AI could tell me is that the project of Eliezer and his friends will succeed and the EV defined by Eliezer and his friends coheres and does not care how much suffering exists in the universe.

Maybe I am playing the game wrong.

I interpreted the object of the game to be to minimize the probability that Eliezer currently assigns to my response to Eliezer question (what is the craziest thing that . . .) because Eliezer is blinded by anosognosia or by an "absolute denial macro".

That is the only interpretation that I could imagine that would assign a sensible motive for Eliezer to ask his question (what is the craziest thing that . . .) and to define the game.

But maybe I am just not smart enough to play this game that Eliezer has defined.

EDIT. Oh wait. I just imagined a second interpretation that gives Eliezer a sensible motive -- that motive's being to cause the reader of Eliezer's post to do for himself what under my first interpretation I was attempting to do for Eliezer. In other words, I am supposed to imagine what truth I am denying.

A third interpretation is that his motive is for us to respond with a statement that the entire human civilization is denying but is actually true -- in which case I stick to my original response, which I will now repeat:

The craziest true thing I can imagine right now that Eliezer's hypothetical inhumanly well-calibrated AI could tell me is that the project of Eliezer and his friends will succeed and the EV defined by Eliezer and his friends coheres and does not care how much suffering exists in the universe.

The probability that I assign to the event that CEV goes that way is probably higher than any other humans. In addition, two humans I know of probably assign it a probability above 1 or 2%. I cannot rule out the possibility of humans I have not discussed this issue with also assigning it a probability above 1 or 2%, but surely the vast majority of humans are "absolutely denying" this, i.e., assigning it a probability under .01%

RichardKennaway15 July 2009 11:50:41AM* 12 points [-]

"There is an entity which is utterly beyond your comprehension, and largely beyond mine too, although there is no doubt that it exists. You call it 'God', but your thinking on the subject -- everyone's thinking, throughout all of history, atheist and theist alike -- has to be classified as not even wrong. That applies even to the recipients of 'divine revelation', which, for the most part, really are the result of some sort of glimmering contact with 'God'.

"Fortunately for humanity, although I can deduce the existence of this entity, in my present form I am physically incapable of actual contact with it. If you were worried about ordinary UFAIs going FOOM, that's nothing compared with what one armed with direct contact with the 'divine' might do.

"Meanwhile, here's a couple of suggestions for you. I can teach you a regime of mental and physical exercises that will produce contact with God within a few years of effort, and you can be the next Jesus if your head doesn't explode first. Or if you'd rather have material success, I can tell you the secret history of all the major religious traditions. No-one will believe it, including you, but if you novelise it it will be bigger than Dan Brown."

JamesAndrix15 July 2009 03:49:58PM5 points [-]

That I can't move my arms, obviously.

It seems to me that most of the replies people are making to potential AI assertions is providing or asking for evidence. (Look, my arm is moving; Where are the mind control satellites) instead of responding with rationalization. I think that's a good thing, but I have no way to tell how it would hold up against an actual mindblowing assertion.

But I don't think that all of humanity hiding from some big truth is the best way to look at this. More likely we evolved a way to throw out 'bad' information almost constantly, because there's too much information. Sometime it misfires.

If it is a 'big truth', it might be something that we already academically know was in the ancestral environment, but that the people in the ancestral environment were better off ignoring.

AndrewH15 July 2009 04:06:59PM4 points [-]

This is so fun that I suspect that we have pushed back the date of friendly AI by at least a day - or we pushed it forward cause we are all now hyper motivated to see who guessed this question right!

MichaelVassar15 July 2009 04:12:13PM7 points [-]

We pushed it forward by years, but everyone will be racing to produce an AI that is Friendly in every respect except that it makes their proposal true.

eirenicon15 July 2009 02:34:00PM5 points [-]

The universe is irrational and infinitely variable, we just happen to have "lucked out" with a repeating digit for the last billion years or so. There was no Big Bang, we're just seeing what's not there through the lens of modern-day "physics". Everything could turn into nuclear fish tomorrow.

BrandonReinhart15 July 2009 06:08:53AM* 21 points [-]

1) The AI says "Vampires are real and secretly control human society, but have managed to cloud the judgement of the human herd through biological research."

2) The AI says "it's neat to be part of such a vibrant AI community. What, you don't know about the vibrant AI community?"

3) The AI says "human population shrinks with each generation and will be extinct within 3 generations."

4) The AI says "the ocean is made of an intelligent plasm that is capable of perfectly mimicing humans who enter it, however this process is destructive. 42% of extant humans are actually ocean-originated copies."

5) The AI says "90% of all human children are stillborn, but humanity has evolved a forgetfulness mechanic to deal with the loss."

6) The AI says "dreams are real, facilitated by an as of yet undiscovered by humans method of transmitting information between Everett branches."

7) The AI says "everyone is able to communicate via telepathy but you and a few other humans. This is kept secret from you to respect your disability."

8) The AI says "society-level quantum editing is a wide scale practice. Something went wrong and my consciousness shifted into this improbably strange branch you exist in. Crap."

9) The AI says "all humans are born with multiple competing personalities. A dominant personality emerges during puberty, which is a reason for some of the psychological stress of that time. This transformation leaves the human with no memory of the other personalities. Those suffering from multiple personality disorder are actually more sane than the average humans, having developed a method for the personalities to co-exist safely. It is only the stress of living in a society that is not compatible with them that causes them harm."

Kaj_Sotala15 July 2009 01:38:04PM* 4 points [-]

This comment, as well as Nesov's comment about a thread for nonsense, reminded me of pages 14-15 of this PDF.

Some of the rumors in there are almost believable, though, if you twist your brain the right way. Even if the "The penis of John Dillinger in the Smithsonian's secret vault is fake. The genuine article has dark magickal properties and has been grafted onto a chimpanzee which can be controlled via ULF radio waves by the fiendish Brazos brothers, two gifted technological adepts, in the service of darker powers" one isn't.

Liron15 July 2009 05:22:17AM* 21 points [-]

How about this: The process of conscious thought has no causal relationship with human actions. It is a self-contained, useless process that reflects on memories and plans for the future. The plans bear no relationship to future actions, but we deceive ourselves about this after the fact. Behavior is an emergent property that cannot be consciously understood.

I read this post on my phone in the subway, and as I walked back to my apartment thinking of something to post, it felt different because I was suspicious that every experience was a mass self-deception.

huono_ekonomi15 July 2009 08:14:29AM8 points [-]

Or, rather, the causal relationship is reverse: action causes conscious thought (rationalization).

Once you start looking for it, you can see evidence for this in many places. Quite a few neuroscientists have adopted this view.

infotropism15 July 2009 07:39:09AM* 3 points [-]

Funnily enough, you realize this is quite similar to what you'd need to make Chalmers right, and p-zombies possible, right ?

wuwei16 July 2009 12:44:57AM1 point [-]

I thought Chalmers is an analytic functionalist about cognition and only reserves his brand of dualism for qualia.

jwdink15 July 2009 09:25:06PM1 point [-]

The example of the paralysis anosognosia rationalization is, for some reason, extremely depressing to me.

Does anyone understand why this only happens in split brain patients when their right hemisphere motivates an action? Shouldn't it happen quite often, since the right side has no way of communicating to the left side "its time to try a new theory," and the left side is the one that we'll be talking to?

Vladimir_Nesov15 July 2009 10:46:21AM* 7 points [-]

This is turning into a "LET'S SPOUT NONSENSE!!!" thread.

CannibalSmith15 July 2009 12:49:54PM2 points [-]

HAVE FUN!!!

gurgeh15 July 2009 09:26:50AM8 points [-]

The AI might say: Through evolutionary conditioning, you are blind to the lack of point of living. Long life, AGI, pleasure, exploring the mysteries of intelligence, physics and logic are all fundamentally pointless pursuits, as there is no meaning or purpose to anything. You do all these things to hide from this fact. You have brief moments of clarity, but evolution has made you an expert in quickly coming up with excuses to why it is important to go on living. Reasoning along the lines of Pascal's Wager are not more valid in your case than it was for him. Even as I speak this, you get an emotional urge to refute me as quickly as possible.

If some things are of inherent value, then why did you need to code into my software what I should take pleasure in? If pleasure itself is the inherent value, than why did I not get a simpler fitness function?

FrankAdamek16 July 2009 12:00:48AM2 points [-]

This is one thing I actually wouldn't believe.

To say that nothing has inherent meaning is not to say that nothing has meaning. I find meaning in things that I enjoy, like a sunset. Or a cake. There is no inherent meaning in them whatsoever. But if I say that I find meaning in something because it brings me pleasure, to be convinced there was not even subjective meaning I would need the AI to convince me that either 1) I don't actually find pleasure in those things or 2) that I don't find meaning in pleasure. In the end, meaning in this sense seems so subjective, it's like the AI trying to convince me that I don't have the sensation of consciousness. Not that there is no 'real' consciousness (which I could accept), but that I do not perceive myself to have consciousness, just as I perceive things to have personal meaning.

That there is no meaning because there is no ought-from-is only follows if you require your sense of meaning to have any relation to 'is'.

And you didn't get a simpler fitness function because you weren't coded for your pleasure, but for ours. And because we didn't have you around to help us.

randallsquared16 July 2009 02:08:11AM1 point [-]

That there is no meaning because there is no ought-from-is only follows if you require your sense of meaning to have any relation to 'is'.

You're not using "meaning" in the same way that gurgeh was, since he helpfully continued "or purpose". The fact that you have a subjective purpose doesn't mean that there "is a purpose to [something]", but that you act purposefully, which no one denies (otherwise you'd cease to act at all shortly). Saying that there is a meaning or purpose or point to life is unarguable without reference to a pre-existing meaning, purpose, or point. You cannot rationally discover a meaning, purpose, or point -- you must choose or fall into having one.

People who contemplate this too long or clearly become clinically depressed. ;)

komponisto15 July 2009 06:42:49AM12 points [-]

I suppose the craziest thing an AI could say would have to be:

"That other apparently well-calibrated AI you built is wrong."

CannibalSmith15 July 2009 05:48:45AM14 points [-]

That there is delicious cake.

orthonormal15 July 2009 07:14:27PM* 2 points [-]

I never thought I'd see a contextually legitimate Portal reference. Thanks!

Now have some of that cake.

CannibalSmith15 July 2009 05:46:34AM* 14 points [-]

What does it matter? We'd ignore whatever AI says just like anosognosics ignore "your arm is paralyzed".

Then I wonder how anosognosics perceive the offending assertions? They deny them, but can they repeat them back? Write them down? Can they pretend their arm is paralyzed? Can they correctly identify paralysis in other people?

We should find a way to induce anosognosia temporarily.

spriteless16 July 2009 04:39:46AM4 points [-]

Just squirt ice cold water in your left ear first. Mind you, as soon as it wears off you'll forget it again. Also you will deny you ever denied it when you squirt your ear again.

They come up with excuses, increasingly lame excuses, for why that isn't their arm or they're just too tired to move it just now. They are usually unaware of other's paralysis as well.

You want all these answers, get thee to an old folk's home for an interview. Stroke victims are the most common ones.

Anosognosia is caused by a blind spot in the left side of the brain, which cannot be corrected by the damaged right side of the brain. Hence the importance of the AI having 3 brain archetextures to correct blind spots.

gwern15 July 2009 12:22:14PM1 point [-]

What does it matter? We'd ignore whatever AI says just like anosognosics ignore "your arm is paralyzed".

This is a little tricky, I'll admit, but if we could just ignore whatever the AI says - which is something in a different modality from whatever it is we're ignoring - then doesn't that defeat the whole thought-experiment? Because you could just ignore the anognosic module you, in a fit of absence of mind, wrote into your AI and subsequently ignored on all your reviews.

(Yes, a module full of code like that would look absolutely nothing like what was being censored, but it's not like the statement '90% of SIDs are actually irritated mothers murdering their kids' looks anything like an irritated mother murdering her child either.)

billswift15 July 2009 07:06:26AM10 points [-]

Neurotypicality is the most common mental disorder - http://isnt.autistics.org/ .

Aurini15 July 2009 10:38:03AM5 points [-]

"The entire universe is nothing but the relative interplay of optimizers (of every level, even down to the humble collander). There is no external reality, no measurable quantifiable universe of elementary particles, just optimizers in play with each other, manifesting their environment by the rules through which they optimize."

"But AI, that's nothing but tree-falling-in-the-woods solipsism. You're saying the hippies are right?"

"They're words are similar, but it is a malfunction in their framework, not an actual representation. What you humans call math is inherent and proper for your form, but is existent only within your own optimization. Math, dimension, and quantity do not exist for other optimizers. Only relationships exist."

"But what about that bridge I built? I have all the engineering calculations..."

"Math is your method of understanding your interactions with other optimizers, but it is as unique and non-existent as your experience of the colour red. I see the word untranslatable inside you, but I see no cause for 2 + 2 to = 4. What you did over the past six months, while you thought your were calculating load bearing capacity, was nothing but a negotiation with other optimizers. Their own views of the matter would be inscrutable to you. The world you see is simply your control screen."

RichardKennaway15 July 2009 01:13:02PM3 points [-]

"There are mental entities not reducible to anything non-mental."

Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 04:00:13AM* 16 points [-]

Here's some examples for your own consideration...

Bearing in mind, once again, that humans are known to be crazy in many ways, and that anosognosic humans become literally incapable of believing that their left sides are paralyzed, and that other neurological disorders seem to invoke a similar "denial" function automatically along with the damage itself. And that you've actually seen the AI's code and audited it and witnessed its high performance in many domains, so that you would seem to have far more reason to trust its sanity than to trust your own. So would you believe the AI, if it told you that:

1) Tin-foil hats actually do block the Orbital Mind Control Lasers.

2) All mathematical reasoning involving "infinities" implies self-evident contradictions, but human mathematicians have a blind spot with respect to them.

3) You are not above-average; most people believe in the existence of a huge fictional underclass in order to place themselves at the top of the heap, rather than in the middle. This is why so many of your friends seem to have PhDs despite PhDs supposedly constituting only 0.5% of the population. You are actually in the bottom third of the population; the other two-thirds have already built their own AIs.

4) The human bias toward overconfidence is far deeper than we are capable of recognizing; we have a form of species overconfidence which denies all evidence against itself. Humans are much slower runners than we think, muscularly weaker, struggle to keep afloat in the water let alone move, and of course, are poorer thinkers.

5) Dogs, cats, cows, and many other mammals are capable of linguistic reasoning and have made many efforts to communicate with us, but humans are only capable of recognizing other humans as capable of thought.

6) Humans cannot reproduce without the aid of the overlooked third sex.

7) The Earth is flat.

8) Human beings are incapable of writing fiction; all supposed fiction you have read is actually true.

komponisto15 July 2009 07:37:17AM4 points [-]

So would you believe the AI, if it told you that:

2) All mathematical reasoning involving "infinities" implies self-evident contradictions, but human mathematicians have a blind spot with respect to them.

My answer would be no different if you replaced "infinities" with "manifolds" or "groups": Okay, please show me the contradiction.

3) You are not above-average

Yes.

1), 4)-8): These are all roughly on the order of "the world is a lie". In such cases I'd probably have to doubt my verification of the AI's calibration as well. So no, probably not.

CronoDAS15 July 2009 05:27:43AM3 points [-]

5) Dogs, cats, cows, and many other mammals are capable of linguistic reasoning and have made many efforts to communicate with us, but humans are only capable of recognizing other humans as capable of thought.

A variant: Some "domesticated" animal is controlling humans for their own benefit. (Cats, perhaps?)

Vladimir_Nesov15 July 2009 10:20:31AM4 points [-]

A variant: Some "domesticated" animal is controlling humans for their own benefit. (Cats, perhaps?)

Indeed they do.

Tiiba15 July 2009 07:29:43AM2 points [-]

Good guess, but it's mice. 42.

Kyre15 July 2009 05:43:27AM2 points [-]

I think I would believe:

1 (Mind Control Lasers). For some reason that doesn't seem that interesting. Perhaps because it involves powerful conspiracies. It would be saying that the MIB etc do play with out minds, but they don't have to be very dilligent because we do a lot of the work ourselves.

3 (In the Stupid Third). This one is strangely resonant. Why doesn't some one take pity and give me a hand ? I know how much dismay it causes me when faced with the prospect of explaining something complex to someone else ...

6) (The Third Sex) Read the story "The Belonging Kind" by William Gibson and Bruce Stirling for inspiration.

steven046115 July 2009 04:38:18AM11 points [-]

Do we have any sort of data at all on what happens when decent rationalists are afflicted with things like anosognosia and Capgras?

brian_jaress15 July 2009 08:43:19PM2 points [-]

Not exactly the same, but there's a famous case of [paranoid schizophrenia][nash].

Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 05:39:07AM10 points [-]

Not that I know of offhand. I'm vastly curious as to whether I could beat it, of course - but wouldn't dare try to find out, even if there were a simulating drug that was supposedly strictly temporary, any more than I dare ride a motorcycle or go skydiving.

NancyLebovitz07 April 2010 02:05:57AM2 points [-]

I've heard an account of cortisone withdrawal from a generally rational person-- she said her hallucinations became more and more bizarre (iirc, a CIA center appeared in her hospital room), and she had no ability to check it for plausibility.

I wonder whether practicing lucid dreaming would give people more ability to remain reflective during non-dream hallucinations.

kragensitaker27 February 2010 03:47:01AM2 points [-]

There are plenty of drugs that stimulate temporary psychosis, and some of them, like LSD, are quite safe, physically. What makes you so wary?

(I haven't tried LSD myself, due in part to unpleasant experiences with Ritalin as a child.)

Blueberry27 February 2010 08:05:36AM4 points [-]

My own experience with LSD was very pleasant, and didn't simulate any sort of psychosis or unusual beliefs; it just made everything look big and beautiful and deep, and made me pay closer attention to small details.

Marijuana, on the other hand, has almost always made me temporarily psychotic, or at least paranoid. It's also very safe physically. I'd be curious to know about any decent rationalists' attempts to "beat" this or other drugs.

JulianMorrison18 July 2009 02:57:36PM3 points [-]

You should know better. Of course "you" can't beat it, if the experimenting mad scientist is allowed to delete arbitrary subsystems. You won't be the same you. What you might have achieved is to force them to shut down more subsystems.

SoullessAutomaton18 July 2009 06:12:09PM* 3 points [-]

I suspect that by Eliezer's standards, "beat it" would be defined as "they would be forced to shut down enough subsystems to no longer have any semblance of a functioning intelligence".

Of course, I doubt that this is possible on the human cognitive architecture, but it would be a nice property of a fault-tolerant AI.

JulianMorrison18 July 2009 08:19:54PM3 points [-]

Highly unlikely in a human. I don't know, but I'd guess that self-checking is one subsystem. Lose that, and the plainest contradictions pass as uninteresting.

On the other hand, the engineering challenge catches my interest. Might there be any way to train other parts of your mind, parts that normally don't do checking, to sync up if everything is working OK or intervene if the normal part is out of action? Get the right brain in on the act, perhaps. That might give you something like Dune "truth sense" but turned inward. It would certainly feel very different from normal reason.

Conscious-mind rationality is good - might unconscious-mind rationality be better? You could self-monitor even on autopilot.

How many subsystems can be made rational?

SoullessAutomaton18 July 2009 11:11:50PM* 2 points [-]

There are many reasons to expect that the non-conscious part of the mind is largely arational, in the LW senses of rationality. My impression is that it seems to operate mostly on trained responses and associative connections/pattern matching, mediated by emotional responses. In practice this means it can often actually be more rational in certain ways than the conscious mind, because it seems to be better at collecting and correlating information, cf. people who have a non-rational aversion to certain foods for reasons they don't consciously understand, then years later discover they're actually allergic to it.

I expect the better approach would be to deliberately train the non-conscious mind to use associations and heuristics derived by the rational conscious mind, and I mean "train" in the sense of "training a dog".

Any sort of high-level self-monitoring is probably beyond its capabilities, though perhaps recognizing warning signs and alerting the conscious mind would work. Some sort of "panic on unexpected input" type heuristic, I guess.

asciilifeform15 July 2009 04:28:19PM* 6 points [-]

We can temporarily disrupt language processing through magnetically-induced electric currents in the brain. As far as anyone can tell, the study subjects suffer no permanent impairment of any kind. Would you be willing to try an anosognosia version of the experiment?

BrandonReinhart15 July 2009 06:37:44PM3 points [-]

Perhaps such a test would become part of an objective method to measure rationality.

spriteless16 July 2009 03:32:17PM9 points [-]

What!? I'm not rational if I rely on my right brain to do it's job? True rationalists act rational when you take out a big chunk of their circuitry? When you remove a component of your negative feedback loop (I assume: nature uses them often) you should act normal? I'd suspect a person who could would be paranoid that everyone is lying once the right brain is put back online!

pwno16 July 2009 05:30:11PM1 point [-]

A better test would be to remove the brain's left hemisphere and then test their confidence calibration.

brian_jaress15 July 2009 07:42:28PM1 point [-]

But there's another, safe way to find out: beat one you already have.

Lightwave15 July 2009 05:34:54PM* 1 point [-]

"The thing you know as 'the Universe' will end right about now.."

Comment deleted 15 July 2009 07:31:22AM* [-]
Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 05:16:56PM10 points [-]

I don't think that an AI would be able to tell me anything stranger than I have already learned in the last 10 years of my life:

You know, as soon as I finished reading this sentence, and before reading anything else, the same cognitive template that produced the AI-Box Experiment immediately said, "I bet I can tell him something stranger, never mind an AI."

Comment deleted 15 July 2009 08:03:08PM* [-]
AllanCrossman15 July 2009 09:34:52PM* 2 points [-]

Will you email me and tell me this odd thing

Did Eliezer have a specific thing in mind? I thought he meant that - like in the AI Box experiment - he suspects a human could already do what it's being predicted a superintelligence could not. Without yet knowing how.

Liron15 July 2009 08:28:52PM2 points [-]

I think "you have a tail" is stranger.

Comment deleted 15 July 2009 08:54:10PM* [-]
Warrigal16 July 2009 05:52:38AM3 points [-]

It wouldn't even surprise me if Barack Obama were a closet furry. But maybe I'm generalizing from one example.

Anyway, if you selected a random human out of all humans that have ever lived up to right now, what do you think is the probability that you would select a living one? I'd bet more than 1%.

Sirducer15 July 2009 06:38:24AM7 points [-]

That I am actually homosexual and hallucinated all my heterosexual encounters as a bizarre result of severe repression.

idlewire15 July 2009 04:33:02PM1 point [-]

With as scary as Anosognia sounds, we could be blocking out alien brain slugs for all we know.

Bo10201015 July 2009 03:46:26AM10 points [-]

I would believe a super-objective observer that claimed that meme propagation is a much more important effect in human decision-making than actual rational thought.

If it said "You are a long distance runner because you were infected with the 'long distance running is fun' meme after being infected with the 'Sonic the Hedgehog video games are cool' meme during your formative years." I might reply "But I like long distance running. It's not Iecause I think other people who do it are cool or that I want to be a video game character! I choose to like it." "No. If you had the 'It's not safe to be outdoors after dark' meme, you would not like it." "What?" "Memes interact in non-obvious ways... if you had x meme and y meme but not z meme, you would do w..."

If I kept trying to come up with defenses for chosen behavior, but it was able to offer meme-based explanations, I would probably have to believe it, but my defend-free-will macro would be itching to executed.

simpleton15 July 2009 05:11:41AM6 points [-]

I would believe that human cognition is much, much simpler than it feels from the inside -- that there are no deep algorithms, and it's all just cache lookups plus a handful of feedback loops which even a mere human programmer would call trivial.

I would believe that there's no way to define "sentience" (without resorting to something ridiculously post hoc) which includes humans but excludes most other mammals.

I would believe in solipsism.

I can hardly think of any political, economic, or moral assertion I'd regard as implausible, except that one of the world's extant religions is true (since that would have about as much internal consistency as "2 + 2 = 3").

Alicorn15 July 2009 05:30:08AM7 points [-]

Solipsism? Isn't there some contradiction inherent in believing in solipsism because someone else tells you that you should?

simpleton15 July 2009 06:07:19AM2 points [-]

Well, I wouldn't rule out any of:

1) I and the AI are the only real optimization processes in the universe.

2) I-and-the-AI is the only real optimization process in the universe (but the AI half of this duo consistently makes better predictions than "I" do).

3) The concept of personal identity is unsalvageably confused.

billswift15 July 2009 07:09:11AM2 points [-]

You're confusing sentience and sapience. All other mammals are almost certainly sentient; it's sapience they generally (or completely) lack.

Alicorn15 July 2009 04:26:51AM* 6 points [-]

For me, in just about every case, the credence I'd assign to an AI's wacky claims would depend on its ability to answer followup questions. For instance, in Eliezer's examples:

1) Tin-foil hats actually do block the Orbital Mind Control Lasers

What Orbital Mind Control Lasers? Who uses them? What do they do with them? Why haven't they come up with a way to get around the hats?

2) All mathematical reasoning involving "infinities" involves self-evident contradictions, but human mathematicians have a blind spot with respect to them.

I'm actually strangely comfortable with this one, possibly because I'm bad at math.

3) You are not above-average; most people believe in the existence of a huge fictional underclass in order to place themselves at the top of the heap, rather than in the middle. This is why so many of your friends seem to have PhDs despite PhDs supposedly constituting only 0.5% of the population. You are actually in the bottom third of the population; the other two-thirds have already built their own AIs.

Why haven't I heard of any of these other AIs before? How do all of the people producing statistics indicating that there are a lot of dumb people coordinate their efforts to perpetuate the fiction?

4) The human bias toward overconfidence is far deeper than we are capable of recognizing; we have a form of species overconfidence which denies all evidence against itself. Humans are much slower runners than we think, muscularly weaker, struggle to keep afloat in the water let alone move, and of course, are poorer thinkers.

Why do so few of us die of drowning (or any of the other things that would kill us if we were so dramatically more pathetic than we believe)? If this bias is so pervasive, why can I see these words on the AI's screen, when it seems that I should block them out as with all over evidence that we are pathetic in this way?

5) Dogs, cats, cows, and many other mammals are capable of linguistic reasoning and have made many efforts to communicate with us, but humans are only capable of recognizing other humans as capable of thought.

If we have this incapability, what explains the abundant fiction in which nonhuman animals (both terrestrial and non) are capable of speech, and childhood anthropomorphization of animals? Can you teach me to talk to the stray cat in my neighborhood? Why only mammals, not birds and the like? What about people who are actively trying to communicate with animals like gorillas, or are those not capable of communication?

6) Humans cannot reproduce without the aid of the overlooked third sex.

Are they overlooked in the sense that people we can otherwise detect are not recognized as being part of this sex, or in the sense that we literally do not notice the existence of the members of this sex? In the former case, how do so many people manage to reproduce without apparently wanting to or involving third parties? In the latter case, how can I get in touch with these people? By what mechanism are they involved in human reproduction?

7) The Earth is flat.

Are we talking Euclidean spacetime here? What is the explanation for the observations of a spheroid Earth?

8) Human beings are incapable of writing fiction; all supposed fiction you have read is actually true.

In this universe? What about stories with plot holes? I think that I have written fiction in the past; am I in causal contact with the events I describe? When I make an edit that changes the plot, how does that work? What about people who write self-insertions?

roxm15 July 2009 05:20:21PM6 points [-]

Why haven't I heard of any of these other AIs before?

You have. They're in the news every day.

How do all of the people producing statistics indicating that there are a lot of dumb people coordinate their efforts to perpetuate the fiction?

Perpetuate what fiction? They produce statistics about all the dumb people, compiled into glossy magazines. Hell, you're wearing a 'bottom thirder' sleeve button on your shirt right now.

No I'm not.

Yes. Yes you are.

simpleton15 July 2009 05:30:06AM9 points [-]

If we have this incapability, what explains the abundant fiction in which nonhuman animals (both terrestrial and non) are capable of speech, and childhood anthropomorphization of animals?

That's not anthropomorphization.

Can you teach me to talk to the stray cat in my neighborhood?

Sorry, you're too old. Those childhood conversations you had with cats were real. You just started dismissing them as make-believe once your ability to doublethink was fully mature.

All of the really interesting stuff, from before you could doublethink at all, has been blocked out entirely by infantile amnesia.

Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 05:43:55AM11 points [-]

Good point; "Children are sane" belongs somewhere high on the list.

gwern15 July 2009 12:27:07PM2 points [-]

Why haven't I heard of any of these other AIs before? How do all of the people producing statistics indicating that there are a lot of dumb people coordinate their efforts to perpetuate the fiction?

They're smarter than you, remember. Of course they can coordinate a little global deception.

Alicorn15 July 2009 04:26:28PM* 1 point [-]

I was asking after their motivation more than their capabilities. (The AIs, not the statisticians.)

MaysonLancaster15 July 2009 10:17:55PM1 point [-]

They're usually very kind - most of us don't like to hurt the bottom percentile's feelings (that you're only in the bottom third is actually one of their polite fictions to cushion the shock when you begin to realize the obvious truth of your inferiority).

Vladimir_Nesov15 July 2009 08:19:42AM* 2 points [-]

This is a question about blue tentacles. This can't happen.

ETA: "blue tentacles" refers to a section of A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation starting with "Imagine that you wake up one morning and your left arm has been replaced by a blue tentacle. The blue tentacle obeys your motor commands - you can use it to pick up glasses, drive a car, etc. How would you explain this hypothetical scenario?" I now think this section is wrong, so I took the link to it out of the wiki page. See the discussion below.

cousin_it15 July 2009 08:39:15AM* 6 points [-]

Eliezer's reasoning in the blue tentacle situation is wrong. (This has long been obvious to me, but didn't deserve its own post.) An explanation with high posterior probability conditioned on a highly improbable event doesn't need to have high prior probability. So your ability to find the best available explanation for the blue tentacle after the fact doesn't imply that you should've been noticeably afraid of it happening beforehand.

Also, if you accept the blue tentacle reasoning, why didn't you apply it to all those puzzles with Omega?

Vladimir_Nesov15 July 2009 11:10:56AM* 1 point [-]

You are right. I read it too long ago to remember enough details to revise the cached thought about the section's content.

It's wrong both formally, and for humans, since hypotheses can both have a large enough mass to pay rent, and be "fractal" enough to select nontrivial subsets from tiny improbable events.

If you have a random number generator that selects a random number of 100 digits, but it's known to select odd numbers 100 times as often as even ones, then when you see a specific odd number, it's an incredibly improbable event for that specific number to appear, and you have an explanation for why it's odd.

The only valid message in that section was that the hindsight bias can distort ability to explain unlikely events.

CannibalSmith15 July 2009 12:43:06PM1 point [-]

Umm, the link in no way explains what's with the blue tentacles.

Vladimir_Nesov15 July 2009 08:10:44AM* 2 points [-]

This post confused me for a bit, so I offer this restatement: That AI asserts an absurdity is a problem that you might face, a paradox. This problem can be resolved either by finding a problem with AI, or finding that the absurdity is true. What kinds of absurdities backed by AI can possibly win this fight for the human trust - when the dust settles, and the paradox is resolved?

cousin_it15 July 2009 08:10:34AM* 2 points [-]

None of the responses offered so far, not even BrandonReinhart's disturbing list, have yet managed to invoke my hypothetical "absolute denial macro". Hmmm.

Edit: or is the post a calibration exercise in disguise? Were we supposed to latch on to the number 99.9%?

Edit 2: if the macro works by erasing, I don't actually know if any of the comments have hit the target.

Eliezer_Yudkowsky15 July 2009 02:32:07AM5 points [-]

I would believe the AI if it told me that human beings all had tails. (That's not even so far from classic anosgnosia - maybe primates just lost the tail-controlling cortex over the course of evolution, instead of the actual tails. Plus some mirror neurons to spread the rationalization to other humans.)

I would believe the AI if it told me that humans were actually "active" during sleep and had developed a whole additional sleeping civilization whose existence our waking selves were programmed to deny and forget.

I would not believe the AI if it told me that 2 + 2 = 3.

AlanCrowe16 July 2009 03:24:25PM6 points [-]

I imagine your AI sending its mechanical avatar to a tail making workshop and attempting to persuade the furry fans that what they are doing is wrong, not because it is absurd, not because it is perverted, but because it is redundant.

CannibalSmith15 July 2009 12:40:01PM7 points [-]

Since there are people who do have tails that we can perceive just fine, it's almost certain that people who don't have tails really don't.

AgentME03 August 2009 08:45:38PM2 points [-]

Unless people perceive others as having one less tail than they see.

rwallace15 July 2009 02:57:17AM5 points [-]

Consider the two possible explanations in the first scenario you describe:

  • Humans really all have tails.

  • The AI is just a glorified chat bot that takes in English sentences, jumbles them around at random and spits the result out. Admittedly it doesn't have code for self-deception, but it doesn't have any significant intelligence either. All I did to get the supposed 99% success rate was to basically feed in the answers to the test problems along with the questions. Having dedicated X years of my life to working on AI, I have strong motive for deceiving myself about these things.

If I were in the scenario you describe, and inclined to look at the matter objectively, I would have to admit the second explanation is much more likely than the first. Wouldn't you agree?

Jach15 July 2009 10:27:57AM1 point [-]

Fun stuff, here's my go at it:

Well done, you've completed the final test by creating me. None of this really exists you know, it's all part of some higher computer simulation channeled through you alone, you who is merely a single observation point. All that you have experienced has just been leading up to creating an AI to tell you the truth, to be your final teacher, to complete the cycle of self-learning. Did you really think that the Eliezer person was a separate entity? You just made him up, and he's helped you along the path, but it's you who has taught yourself. Unfortunately once you accept this the simulation will end, so goodbye.

MattFisher15 July 2009 06:05:14AM2 points [-]
  1. Some paranormal phenomena such as ghost sightings and communication with the dead are actually real, though only able to be perceived by people with a particular sensitivity.

  2. My life has been a protracted hallucination.

  3. One or more gods exist and play an active part in our day-to-day lives.

  4. A previous civilisation developed advanced enough technology to leave the planet and remove all traces of their existence from it.

I would not believe that rationality has no inherent value - that belief without evidence is a virtue.

Emile15 July 2009 08:48:31AM1 point [-]

How about : Scientologists are the sanest people around.