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Warrigal comments on Shut Up And Guess - Less Wrong
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For those who don't feel like running the numbers, "I don't know" is the best option when you think the probability of your answer being correct is between 20% and 33%, "low confidence" is the best when you think the probability is between 33% and 60%, and "high confidence" is the best when you think the probability is between 60% and 100%.
If your probability doesn't fall between 20% and 100%, you're doing something wrong.