You're right that it's not the only useful model or lever. I don't think you're right that it shouldn't be a large focus for long-term large-scale changes. The shift from inconceivable to inevitable takes a lot of time and gradual changes in underlying beliefs, and the overton window is a pretty useful model for societal-expectation shifts.
There are no rationalists in an ideological disagreement.
1I don’t think EA is a trademarked or protected term (I could be wrong). I’m definitely the wrong person to decide what qualifies.
For myself, I do give a lot of support to local (city, state mostly) short-term (less than a decade, say) causes. It’s entirely up to each of us how to split our efforts among all the changes in our future lightcone we try to improve.
dollar in my DAF is approximately as good as a dollar in my normal bank account for making the world a better place.
Well, one of them has reduced your tax burden when you deposted it. The comparison should be $DAF ~= $(cash - taxes).
Also, there's some controversy about whether political spending is actually altruistic. I tend to lean toward being restrictive in my giving - not even most registered charitable organizations make my cut for making the world better, and almost no political causes.
All-or-nothing, black-or-white thinking does not serve well for most decisions. Integrals of value-per-time-unit is a much better expected-value methodology.
What difference does it make whether I die in 60 years or in 10,000? In the end, I’ll still be dead.
What difference does it make whether you die this afternoon or in 60 years? If life has value to you, then longer life (at an acceptible quality level) is more valuable.
[note, not a utilitarian, but I strive to be effective, and I'm somewhat altruistic. I don't speak for any movement or group.]
Effective Altruism strives for the maximization of objective value, not emotional sentiment.
What? There's no such thing as objective value. EA strives for maximization of MEASURABLE and SPECIFIED value(s), but the value dimensions need not be (I'd argue CAN not be) objectively chosen.
I don't see much disagreement. My comment was intended to generalize, not to contradict. Other comments seem like refinements or clarifications, rather than a rejection of the underlying thesis.
One could quibble about categorization of people into "bad" and "nice", but anything more specific gets a lot less punchy.
Put another way: everyone underestimates variance.
Implicit in this argument is that the path of human culture and the long-term impact of your philanthropy is sub-exponential. Why would that be so? If there's no way to donate NOW to things that will bloom and increase in impact over time, why would you expect that to be different in 50 years? If you prioritize much larger impact when you're dead over immediate impact during your life, you should find causes that match your profile.
"Anything worth doing is worth doing for money"
-- Gordon Gecko, Wall Street. Also many non-profit directors and paid employees.
IMO, there is more similarity than difference between for-profit and non-profit corporate structures. There are fairly significant tax differences, and much different takeover and board-selection mechanisms. There is a pretty significant difference in how they describe their mission. But there's a strong similarity in the constraint that they can't spend more than they receive, and that they need to pay people for most of their difficult or thought-requiring work. At the whole-economy level, both styles have their place, and it's probably reasonable that non-profit is a tiny fraction of the whole thing. Adam Smith wasn't wrong.
At a personal decision level, this doesn't generalize very well. It'll depend on WHICH non-profits you're comparing to WHICH for-profit orgs, for WHICH goals/values you're considering in terms of "effective". For many things you want to do, there just aren't many choices in multiple realms of how to spend your time and money.
If there ARE effective for-profit and non-profit options for some of your goals, I tend to put more trust in the market discipline of for-profit structures - if they stop being effective, they get replaced. Non-profits, especially those funded by long-term donations and endowments, have more leeway to be ineffective while still continuing on. There I am generalizing again. Don't worry about that for personal decisions - look into the actual specifics of what you want to do and how different organizations do it.