Peter_de_Blanc comments on Guess Again - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Alicorn 09 August 2009 07:11PM

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Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 13 August 2009 09:08:16PM *  3 points [-]

Because you assign the all-heads sequence a probability significantly higher than 2^-10, so your Bayes score is higher than you expected. Surprise!

Edit: I didn't notice that you said the coin is fair. Well, I'll bite the bullet and claim that if you really assign a probability of 1 to the coin being fair, then you won't feel surprised no matter how many times it comes up heads.

Comment author: orthonormal 15 August 2009 09:10:42PM 1 point [-]

Agree. In practice, I'd bet that our pattern-seeking minds really do put more weight on simple fixed-coin hypotheses than we're consciously aware of; after only three heads in a row, such a hypothesis would pop into my head (though I'd consciously dismiss it), and after three or four more heads, I'd start to consciously consider it.