anonym comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Bo102010 09 August 2009 08:13PM

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Comment author: anonym 10 August 2009 03:53:13AM 20 points [-]

It's possible but doesn't seem very likely, since given the choice between $1M outright or $500 outright, those same people would almost certainly take the $1M.

I think a more likely explanation is that they conceptualize the problem as having to choose between "probably getting $0" and "certainly getting $500".

Comment author: bbleeker 11 August 2009 10:33:10AM 4 points [-]

Of course that's it. $500 is a lot to pay for a lottery ticket, even one with as high a chance of winning as this. Change it to a certain $20 and a 15% chance of $40,000, and I bet (heh) that many more people will take the chance then.