Christian_Szegedy comments on The Lifespan Dilemma - Less Wrong

39 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 10 September 2009 06:45PM

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Comment author: Christian_Szegedy 10 September 2009 11:45:00PM *  1 point [-]

With even very slowly growing estimates p(suicide in t years) = log ( log ... ( log (log t))) would give the human enough incentives refuse the offer at some point (after accepting some) without an extra guarantee of not dieing earlier due to suicide.

Therefore, at that point omega will have to make this offer if he wants to convince the human.

Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 11 September 2009 12:44:33AM 1 point [-]

The limit as t->infinity of p(suicide in t years) is probably considerably less than 1; I think that averts your concern.

Comment author: Christian_Szegedy 11 September 2009 01:05:39AM *  2 points [-]

This is highly subjective...

and not the point anyways. The point is that there are too many unclear points and one can come up with a lot of questions that were not specified in the OP. For example: it is not even clear whether you die with 100% certainty once your agreed upon lifetime expires or is there still a chance that some other offer comes by? etc. Your estimted probability of suicide, omega's guarantee on that, guarantees on the quality of life, bayesian evidence on Omega, etc. These are all factors that could influence the decision,...

And once one realizes that these were all there, hidden, doubts would arise that whether a human mind should at all attempt to make such high stake decisions based on so little evidence for so much ahead in time.