= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
player_03 comments on The Lifespan Dilemma - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (214)
So let me get this straight: I get an 80% chance of living 10^10,000,000,000 years, and a 20% chance of dying within the hour?
Awesome! A little unsettling, but the math checks out. I'll take it!
Another deal? Go down to a 79.99992% probability of living, but up to 10^10^10,000,000,000 years? Are you crazy? No!
Well, the difference being that 10^10,000,000,000 years is way more than I'll need to figure out immortality, even taking Hofstadter's Law into account! You've already given me immortality; why would I agree to reducing my chances?
Not allowed? What?
Omega's going to ensure that my life ends? Just to fulfill his (her? its?) guarantee?
The deal is off!
Yes, off. Tell Omega to take this offer and stick it somewhere light can't escape from! Omega isn't offering an extended lifespan; it's offering an 80% chance of guaranteed death plus a 20% chance of guaranteed death! I'd prefer to keep my one-in-a-million chance of actual immortality, thank you very much.
(Sorry for any low-quality writing and unclear explanations. I know I'm nowhere near Eliezer's league, but that just means I need the practice.)
How about if you didn't have that one-in-a-million chance? After all, life is good for more than immortality research.
One-in-a-million is just an estimate. Immortality is a tough proposition, but the singularity might make it happen. The important part is that it isn't completely implausible.
I'm not sure what you mean, otherwise.
Are you suggesting that Omega takes away any chance of achieving immortality even before making the offer? In that case, Omega's a jerk, but I'll shut up and multiply.
Or are you saying that 10^10,000,000,000 years could be used for other high-utility projects, like making simulated universes full of generally happy people? Immortality would allow even more time for that.
#1, although I was thinking in terms of someone from a civilization with no singularity in sight. Thanks for clarifying!
Ok, yeah, in that case my response is to take as many deals as Omega offers.
AdeleneDawner and gwern provide a way to make the idea more palatable - assume MWI. That is, assume there will be one "alive" branch and a bunch of "dead" branches. That way, your utility payoff is guaranteed. (Ignoring the grief of those around you in all the "dead" branches.)
Without that interpretation, the idea becomes scarier, but the math still comes down firmly on the side of accepting all the offers. It certainly feels like a bad idea to accept that probability of death, no matter what the math says, but as far as I can tell that's scope insensitivity talking.
With that in mind, my only remaining objection is the "we can do better than that" argument presented above. My feeling is, why not use a few of those 10^10,000,000,000 years to figure out a way to live even longer? Omega won't allow it? Ok, so I don't want to get involved with Omega in the first place; it's not worth losing my (admittedly slim) chances at actual immortality. Too late for that? Fine, then I'll sit down, shut up, and multiply.