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PlaidX comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong
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Oh, I see. How are we sure it cancels exactly, though?
see Bostrom's paper
Ah, that makes sense. In retrospect, this is quite simple:
If you have a box of ten eggs, numbered 1 through 10, and a box of a thousand eggs, numbered 1 through 1000, and the eggs are all dumped out on the floor and you pick up one labeled EGG 3, it's just as likely to have come from the big box as the small one, since they both have only one egg labeled EGG 3.
I don't buy bostrom's argument against the presumptuous philosopher though. Does anyone have a better one?