Stuart_Armstrong comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 23 September 2009 02:54PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 24 September 2009 11:34:53AM 1 point [-]

At D, the point you're made aware, you know that you're in the proportion of people who live.

Then what about introducing a C' between C and D: You are told the initial rules. Then, later you are told about the killing, and then, even later, that the killing had already happened and that you were spared.

What would you say the odds were there?

Comment author: brianm 24 September 2009 12:55:18PM 2 points [-]

Thinking this through a bit more, you're right - this really makes no difference. (And in fact, re-reading my post, my reasoning is rather confused - I think I ended up agreeing with the conclusion while also (incorrectly) disagreeing with the argument.)