brian_jaress comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 23 September 2009 02:54PM

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Comment author: brian_jaress 24 September 2009 03:22:53PM 0 points [-]

They'll be wrong about the generation part only.

But that's the important part. It's called the "Doomsday Argument" for a reason: it concludes that doomsday is imminent.

Of course the last 2/3 is still going to be 2/3 of the total. So is the first 2/3.

Imminent doomsday is the only non-trivial conclusion, and it relies on the assumption that exponential growth will continue right up to a doomsday.