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JamesAndrix comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong
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You have to look at individuals in order to get odds for individuals. Your obvious probability of getting a blue marble is for the group of marbles.
But I think we can still look at individual randomly selected marbles.
Before the coin flip let's write numbers on all the marbles, 1 to 100, without regard to color. And let's say we roll a fair 100 sided die, and get the number 37.
After the flip and extraction of colored marbles. I look in the bag and find that marble 37 is in it. Given that marble 37 survived, what is the probability that it is blue?